Analysis Report: Jeffrey Gundlach's Asset Valuation Warning (November 17, 2025)

---

On November 17, 2025 (17:36 EST), Jeffrey Gundlach—founder/CEO of DoubleLine Capital and a prominent bond market expert—warned that stocks, bonds, and private assets are universally overvalued in the post-zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) era [1][2][3]. Key claims include:

• Mounting government balance sheet pressure will push yields higher [1].
• Investors should increase cash holdings, consider gold, and shift to international equities [2].
• Concerns about AI speculative excess and “garbage lending” practices [3][5].
• The current stock market is one of the “least healthy” of his career [3].

: [1][2][3][5]

---

• Equity Indices
  : U.S. markets declined sharply:
  • Russell 2000 (small-cap): -1.69% (worst performer)
  • Dow Jones: -1.02%
  • S&P 500: -0.61% [0]
• Sector Performance
  : Defensive sectors outperformed cyclicals:
  • Utilities (+0.84%) and Healthcare (+0.51%) led gains.
  • Financial Services (-2.41%) was the worst performer, aligning with bond market concerns [0].
• Sentiment
  : Risk aversion increased, as investors favored defensive assets over cyclicals/financials [0].

Gundlach’s warning amplifies recent volatility (e.g., S&P500’s1.30% drop on November13) and may reinforce bearish sentiment on U.S. asset valuations [0].

: [0]

---

##3. Key Data Extraction

Instrument/Metric	Value (%)
Russell2000 (Small-Cap)	-1.69
Dow Jones Industrial Average	-1.02
S&P500	-0.61
Financial Services Sector	-2.41
Utilities Sector	+0.84

ETF Ticker	Name	Change (%)	Price ($)
GLD	SPDR Gold Shares	-1.15	371.65
TLT	iShares20+ Year Treasury Bond	+0.25	89.09
SPY	SPDR S&P500 ETF	-0.93	665.67

: [0]

---

##4. Affected Instruments

• Small-Cap Stocks
  : Russell2000’s 1.69% drop indicates heightened risk [0].
• Financial Sector
  : Banks/bond issuers face pressure from Gundlach’s bond market warnings [0].
• U.S. Equities
  : Broad indices (S&P500, Dow) declined on valuation concerns [0].

• Gold
  : GLD fell post-event, but Gundlach recommended it as a hedge [0][2].
• Long-Term Bonds
  : TLT showed mixed reactions, but yield spike risks remain [0][1].
• International Equities
  : Potential flows to non-U.S. markets (per Gundlach’s advice) [2].

: [0][1][2]

---

##5. Context for Decision-Makers

1. International Market Data
   : No post-event performance for non-U.S. equities.
2. Treasury Yield Trends
   : Missing10Y/30Y yield changes on November17.
3. Institutional Reactions
   : No data on investor/analyst follow-up responses.

• Financial Sector Vulnerability
  : The2.41% drop in Financial Services warrants caution—Gundlach’s lending concerns may further impact this sector [0].
• Small-Cap Risk
  : Russell2000’s underperformance suggests smaller companies are more exposed to valuation pressures [0].
• Bond Market Risk
  : Rising yields (per Gundlach) could negatively affect long-term bonds (TLT) and interest-sensitive sectors [1].

:

• “Users should be aware that Financial Services stocks may face continued pressure due to Gundlach’s bond market warnings, as the sector fell 2.41% on November17.”
• “This development raises concerns about small-cap performance— the Russell2000 index dropped1.69% on November17, indicating heightened risk for smaller companies.”

1. Treasury Yields
   : Track10Y/30Y yield movements for upward pressure.
2. International Flows
   : Monitor capital shifts to non-U.S. equity markets.
3. Gold Prices
   : Observe if gold rebounds as a valuation hedge.
4. Financial Sector Performance
   : Watch for sustained weakness in banks/bond issuers.

: [0][1][2]

---

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (Market Indices, Sector Performance, ETF Quotes)
[1] Bloomberg. “DoubleLine’s Gundlach: Almost All Financial Assets Are Now Overvalued”. November17,2025. URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-17/doubleline-s-gundlach-almost-all-financial-assets-are-now-overvalued?srnd=homepage-europe
[2] Morningstar. “Stocks, bonds - pretty much everything is overvalued, ‘bond king’ says”. November17,2025. URL: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025111750/stocks-bonds-pretty-much-everything-is-overvalued-bond-king-says
[3] CNBC. “Gundlach sees one of the ‘least healthy’ stock markets of his career”. November17,2025. URL: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/17/gundlach-sees-one-of-the-least-healthy-stock-markets-of-his-career.html
[5] SeekingAlpha. “Gundlach sees boom in ‘garbage lending’ heading to bust”. November17,2025. URL: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4522877-gundlach-sees-boom-in-garbage-lending-heading-to-bust---report

---

Disclaimer

: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All data is as of the specified dates and subject to change.

Compliance Note

: Referenced sources are tier-1 (Bloomberg, CNBC) and tier-2 (Morningstar, SeekingAlpha) for credibility.

Time Context

: All market data reflects events up to November18,2025.