Bitcoin's Drop Below $90k: Market Impact, Technical Signals, and Risk Analysis 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to an intraday low of $89,420 on November 18, 2025, marking its lowest level since April and erasing all year-to-date gains [1][3]. This decline reflects a confluence of macroeconomic and technical factors: uncertainty over U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts (December probability down to 42% [5]), a ‘death cross’ technical signal (50-day moving average below 200-day moving average [3]), and stalled inflows into Bitcoin ETFs [3]. The drop has spilled over to crypto-related stocks: Coinbase (COIN) fell 7.06% and Marathon Digital (MARA) declined 4.00% [0], indicating heightened investor concern.

1. Cross-Domain Correlation
   : Fed rate policy uncertainty has directly impacted risk assets like Bitcoin, with the 42% December cut probability (down from 93% a month ago [5]) driving risk-off sentiment.
2. Technical-Macro Feedback Loop
   : The death cross signal has amplified negative sentiment, creating a feedback loop that pressures both Bitcoin and crypto stocks.
3. Narrative Challenge
   : Bitcoin’s ‘digital gold’ narrative is under scrutiny, as it has underperformed physical gold by 40% when priced in gold terms [5].

: Further bearish momentum from the death cross signal [3], contagion to other crypto assets and stocks [1], and potential institutional exits leading to increased volatility.
: Some market participants (e.g., Winklevoss [5]) view the drop as a buying opportunity, though this is balanced by bearish perspectives (e.g., Peter Schiff [5]). Key support levels to monitor are $86k-$88k [4].

• Bitcoin’s peak-to-trough decline from October to November is 28.5% [5].
• Crypto stocks like COIN and MARA have seen above-average trading volumes amid the drop [0].
• The fear and greed index for Bitcoin has entered ‘extreme fear’ territory [3].
• Investors should monitor Fed rate decisions, support levels, and ETF inflow trends for further context.

This analysis provides objective information for decision-making and does not constitute investment advice.