U.S.-China Rare Earths Deal Claim Analysis: Thanksgiving 2025 Deadline

A Reddit post claimed a U.S.-China magnet deal would be finalized by Thanksgiving, but official statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicate a broader rare earths deal (encompassing magnets and minerals) is expected by that deadline [1][3]. The deal, part of an October 2025 framework, includes China suspending rare earth export restrictions for a year and the U.S. rolling back 100% tariffs on Chinese imports [1][3]. Bessent disputed a Wall Street Journal report about China restricting rare earths for U.S. military contractors [2][3]. The deal impacts multiple sectors: China agreed to buy 12M metric tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end [5], potentially boosting prices; U.S. rare earth firms like MP Materials may see short-term gains [6]; and tech supply chains (EVs, semiconductors) could stabilize if the deal holds [3].

Public sentiment is neutral to negative (skeptical) [7][9]. Common concerns include doubt over China honoring commitments, viewing the deal as a temporary timeout rather than a long-term solution, and confusion between the Reddit post’s magnet claim and the official rare earths deal [4][6]. Controversies include the dispute over military-use restrictions (Bessent denied the WSJ report) and unaddressed long-term supply chain issues (China controls 85-90% of rare earth processing) [9]. Short-term trends: the deal is likely to be finalized by Thanksgiving [1][3]; mid-term: market reactions to the deal and compliance scrutiny [5][9]; long-term: continued U.S. push for rare earth diversification [9].

: Reputational risk for Bessent if the deal falls through or fails to deliver [7]; the Reddit post’s claim is partially verified (deal exists but is broader than magnets) [4][1]. : Soybean price increases due to China’s purchase commitment [5]; short-term gains for U.S. rare earth stocks [6].

The deal is a temporary (1-year) framework aimed at de-escalating trade tensions. It addresses immediate supply chain concerns but not structural issues like China’s dominance in rare earth processing. Public sentiment is skeptical, with focus on compliance and long-term resilience.