Analysis of Larry Kudlow's Defense of Trump's Economic Record on Inflation and Growth

This analysis is based on Larry Kudlow’s Fox Business article [1] arguing Trump’s second term delivered strong growth and low inflation, contradicting Democratic claims. Kudlow’s grocery inflation claim (2.1% annualized, 1.4% cumulative Jan-Aug 2025) aligns with USDA’s 2.7% YoY food-at-home inflation in August 2025 [3]. Biden’s 23% cumulative grocery inflation is confirmed by USDA’s 23.6% all-food CPI (2020-2024) [5]. GDP growth claims (3.8% Q1, 4.1% Q2 forecast) are partially verified by Atlanta Fed’s Q3 2025 4.0% forecast [6]. Wage growth over 4% is supported by White House data showing 2% real blue-collar wage growth [7]. The 2025 government shutdown (36+ days) is confirmed as the longest ever [9], though the 10-point GOP approval gap lacks direct verification [10,11].

• Kudlow’s partisan perspective (former Trump advisor) frames the narrative to highlight Trump’s economic successes while downplaying shutdown impacts [1].
• Comparing 8 months of Trump’s term to Biden’s full 4-year term ignores post-pandemic recovery context [2,5].
• The shutdown’s long-term costs (delayed loans, Head Start disruptions) may offset short-term GDP gains [9].

• Risks
  : Shutdown disruptions could harm small businesses and housing markets [9]; partisan framing may deepen polarization [1].
• Opportunities
  : Trump’s wage growth narrative could strengthen support among working-class voters [7].

Kudlow’s claims are partially verified with objective data, but context gaps (term length comparison, approval gap) and partisan bias should be considered. The shutdown’s economic impacts are significant and understated in the article.

: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute political or economic advice.