Bitcoin Death Cross & Tom Lee's Bullish Predictions for BTC, ETH Supercycle, and Granny Shots ETFs

On November 16, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) formed a death cross—50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average—after three consecutive weeks of losses, pushing its price to ~$93.6k (first time since May 2025) [1,3,4]. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 10 (extreme fear), with over $100 million in liquidations [1,3]. Despite these bearish signals, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee predicts BTC will reach a record high by end-2025 [0,5], citing its historical resilience: since his 2017 recommendation (~$1k), BTC has risen 100x despite 6 corrections >50% and 3 >75% [5]. Lee also claims Ethereum (ETH) is entering a supercycle similar to BTC’s growth, supported by institutional adoption like BitMine Immersion Technologies adding 54,156 ETH to its balance sheet [5,6]. Additionally, two Granny Shots ETFs were launched, though their exact assets, tickers, or strategy remain unclear [0,7].

1. Death Cross Context
   : While a death cross signals short-term bearish momentum, historical data shows medium-term recovery potential—15–26% gains in 2–3 months post-cross [3].
2. Lee’s Track Record
   : His 2017 BTC call (100x return) adds credibility to his current bullish predictions [5].
3. ETH Supercycle
   : Institutional purchases (BitMine’s ETH addition) align with Lee’s supercycle narrative, indicating growing institutional confidence in ETH [6].
4. ETF Ambiguity
   : The Granny Shots ETFs’ link to Ethereum suggests thematic exposure, but lack of details limits immediate assessment [7].

• Short-term: Bearish sentiment may persist, pressuring high-beta assets like Dogecoin (DOGE) [4]; whale selling and spot ETF outflows could accelerate declines [3].
• Medium-term: Uncertainty around Granny Shots ETF details and Tom Lee’s unquantified BTC target creates ambiguity [0,5].

• Medium-term: Historical death cross recovery trends suggest 15–26% gains in 2–3 months [3].
• Long-term: Lee’s supercycle narrative and ETF launches may attract institutional capital to BTC and ETH [5,6].

• BTC formed a death cross on Nov16,2025, with price ~$93.6k and extreme fear sentiment [1,3,4].
• Tom Lee predicts BTC record high by end-2025 and ETH’s 100x supercycle [0,5,6].
• Two Granny Shots ETFs launched with limited details [0,7].
• Historical death cross data shows medium-term recovery potential [3].