Strong Rise in Lithium Carbonate Prices Drives Opportunities for Lithium Mining Stocks; Market Sees Rotation Trend from Tech to New Energy & Electric Vehicles Sector

Social Media Insights (Xueqiu)

The expected price of lithium carbonate has been revised up to 120,000 yuan/ton, and the short covering rally has attracted attention; Ganfeng Lithium predicts that the price may reach 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [0].
Lithium mining stocks are valued with Tianqi Lithium (SZ002466) as the anchor; companies with capital expenditure and new production capacity (e.g., Three Leading Lithium Players in Western Sichuan) stand out in value [0].
The market shows a trend of capital rotation from tech to the new energy & electric vehicles sector; the improvement in the sector’s fundamentals and market divergences create investment opportunities [0].

Research Findings

Lithium Carbonate futures hit the daily limit to 95,200 yuan/ton on November 17 (a high since July 2024), still 26% away from the 120,000 yuan target price; demand is strong (energy storage accounts for nearly 1/3), with an expected inventory reduction of 15,000 tons in November, but oversupply remains a risk in 2025 [1][2][4].
Capital rotation is obvious: the tech sector is consolidating, with capital spreading to new energy; energy storage installed capacity increased by 85.5 GWh from January to October (+71% YoY), and photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity reached 1100 GW in the first half of the year (+54.2% YoY) [6][9][10][11].
AI data centers have become a new growth point for energy storage; ultra-large intelligent computing centers have an urgent demand for high-reliability energy storage systems [11].

Comprehensive Analysis

Consensus Points
: Strong demand for lithium carbonate, capital rotation to new energy & electric vehicles sector, explosive growth of energy storage.
Divergence Points
: Large gap between short-term price target (120,000 yuan) and current price; 2025 oversupply vs long-term demand growth expectations.
Impacts
: Valuation repair opportunities for lithium mining stocks emerge; companies with new production capacity may get higher premiums; the new energy & electric vehicles sector becomes a capital safe haven, benefiting energy storage-related industrial chains.

Risks & Opportunities

Opportunities
: Valuation repair for lithium mining enterprises (Tianqi Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, etc.); energy storage industrial chain (new-type energy storage, AI data center energy storage); sustained growth of the PV industry [9][10][11].
Risks
: 2025 lithium carbonate oversupply may suppress prices; tech sector rebound may divert capital; short-term price fluctuations (still far from the 120,000 yuan target) [2][8]

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