S&P500 Technical Analysis: Shakeout vs. Bearish Start Assessment

On November 16, 2025, Seeking Alpha published a technical analysis article titled “S&P 500: From Shakeout To Takeoff (Technical Analysis)” by Andrew McElroy [1]. Key takeaways include:

• The S&P 500 (SPY) remains in a bullish trend, with recent volatility likely a “shakeout” rather than the start of a bearish move.
• The index held support levels while the Magnificent 7 (Mag7) stocks corrected sharply, a positive signal.
• Technical analysis identifies 6631 as the November low, with near-term targets of 6950-7000 and a potential 7500 level in H2 2026.

• Mag7 Rebound
  : After correction, Mag7 stocks rebounded strongly on November 14: NVDA (+4.00%), TSLA (+4.67%), MSFT (+2.40%), GOOGL (+1.84%) [0].
• Sector Performance
  : Technology (Mag7-heavy) rose 2.03% on November 16, while Energy (+3.12%) and Utilities (+2.16%) led gains [0].
• SPY Support
  : SPY touched $663.27 on November 14, aligning with the article’s 6631 index support level [0].

If support holds above 6631, the 6950-7000 target could be achievable in coming weeks [1]. This depends on sustained Mag7 momentum and macro stability.

• SPY Range
  : Past 10 days: $661.21 (low) → $685.80 (high), recent close $671.93 [0].
• Mag7 Volatility
  : NVDA/TSLA showed highest volatility (4%+ daily changes), AAPL/AMZN muted [0].
• Sector Divergence
  : Communication Services (-2.22%) and Basic Materials (-0.94%) underperformed [0].

• Support Validation
  : Monitor if S&P holds 6631 to confirm shakeout thesis.
• Energy Drivers
  : Investigate 3.12% Energy gain (oil prices/OPEC decisions?).
• Macro Factors
  : Fed policy, inflation data, geopolitics could impact trends.

• Technical vs. Fundamental
  : Article focuses on technicals—decision-makers should add earnings/economic data.
• Sector Rotation
  : Energy/Utilities outperformance suggests potential shift from Mag7 leadership.

• Support Breach
  : Breaking below 6631 invalidates bullish thesis [1].
• Communication Services Drag
  : 2.22% decline may signal tech subsector weakness [0].
• Macro Volatility
  : Upcoming Fed meetings/inflation data could trigger swings.

1. SPY’s hold of $663+ support.
2. Mag7 momentum (NVDA/TSLA).
3. Energy sector catalysts.
4. Communication Services recovery.

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database
[1] Seeking Alpha, “S&P 500: From Shakeout To Takeoff (Technical Analysis)”, Andrew McElroy, 2025-11-16. URL: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4844315-sp500-from-shakeout-to-takeoff-technical-analysis

This report is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Conduct further research before decisions.
Risk Warning: Market conditions can change rapidly—always validate technical signals with fundamental data.