Analysis of Recent Strong Performance of Shipu Testing (301228): Driving Factors and Sustainability Assessment

Shipu Testing (301228), as a third-party service provider focusing on soil and groundwater testing [0], has recently seen strong stock price performance mainly driven by industry policies and short-term capital. The advancement of the third national soil census policy [8] has raised the overall demand expectations for the environmental testing industry, and the company’s business directly benefits from soil pollution investigation and remediation-related projects [0]. In terms of capital flow, on August 28, the main capital net bought 9.813 million yuan [5], indicating increased short-term institutional attention; while the net sell of 8.8467 million yuan on September 12 [2] reflects capital divergence. In terms of stock price, the single-day increase reached 13.17% on November 14 [0], with trading volume significantly higher than the previous period, breaking through the recent shock range [3].

However, the company’s fundamentals still face challenges: the 2025 interim report shows a year-on-year decline in both revenue and net profit [7], the number of shareholders increased by 12.93% from the previous period to 7,600 households [6], and the rise in retail investor participation may exacerbate stock price volatility. Intensified industry competition and insufficient project execution efficiency are the main reasons for performance pressure [0].

1. Short-term divergence between policy and fundamentals
   : The improved market expectations brought by favorable policies contrast sharply with the company’s current performance decline [0], reflecting the market’s advance response to long-term policy dividends rather than short-term profit growth support.
2. Obvious capital-driven characteristics
   : The recent stock price rise is accompanied by increased trading volume [3], but the main capital inflow and outflow fluctuate greatly [2,5], indicating that short-term speculative capital dominates the market, lacking sustained institutional capital layout.
3. Potential for industry pattern changes
   : The soil census policy is expected to promote industry integration [8]. If leading enterprises like Shipu Testing can improve technical capabilities and project management efficiency, they may gain advantages in market expansion [0].

1. Sustained deterioration of fundamentals
   : If the company cannot reverse the downward trend of revenue and profits [7], the short-term stock price rise may be unsustainable, and there is a risk of correction [0].
2. Policy implementation below expectations
   : If the progress of soil census projects and capital allocation are lower than market expectations [8], it will weaken the growth momentum of industry demand.
3. Increased market volatility
   : The increase in the number of shareholders and the rise in retail investor participation [6] may lead to excessive stock price reactions to short-term news and significantly increase volatility [0].

1. Policy dividend window
   : The full launch of the third soil census will bring sustained testing demand [8]. As a professional service provider in the细分 field, the company is expected to obtain more project orders [0].
2. Space for technical upgrading
   : By improving testing technology and automation levels, the company can reduce costs and enhance competitiveness [0], seizing industry growth opportunities.

In the short term, focus on the company’s third quarterly report performance forecast (if any) and the specific implementation progress of soil census projects [8]; in the long term, track the improvement of the company’s fundamentals [7].

Shipu Testing (301228)'s recent strong performance is mainly driven by the third national soil census policy expectations and short-term capital inflows [0,5,8], but fundamental pressure (revenue and profit decline [7], increase in the number of shareholders [6]) remains the core challenge. Investors should rationally view the relationship between policy dividends and short-term stock price fluctuations, pay attention to the company’s performance improvement signals and industry policy implementation progress, and avoid over-chasing short-term gains [0].