SPX 0DTE Trading Case Study: Reddit User's High-Risk $750k Target Analysis

On November 15, 2025 (EST), a Reddit user reported gaining $13.8k (55.2% return) over two months on a $25k account trading SPX zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options. The user aims to grow the account to $750k in 24 months (an additional ~18x return over the remaining 22 months) as part of a personal experiment called “The Falling Knife Project.” This case highlights the potential for high short-term returns but also extreme risk associated with aggressive 0DTE trading strategies [user-provided event].

The user’s strategy aligns with a broader market trend of increasing 0DTE options activity:

• In Q3 2025, 57% of SPX Index options average daily volume (ADV) was 0DTE contracts, rising to a record 62% share in August 2025 [1][2].
• This growth reflects trader interest in intraday opportunities and reduced overnight exposure [3].
• During the user’s 2-month gain period (Aug 22–Nov14,2025), the SPX index rose 5.47% with moderate daily volatility (0.71% standard deviation), creating favorable conditions for directional 0DTE trades [0].

1. Trader Performance
   :
   • Initial capital: $25k → Current: $38.8k (55.2% return over 2 months).
   • Target: $750k in 24 months → Requires ~18x growth over remaining 22 months (15% monthly return).

2. Market Context
   :
   • SPX performance (60 days to Nov14,2025): +5.47% with 0.71% daily volatility [0].
   • 0DTE volume: 57% of SPX options ADV in Q32025 [1].

3. Risk Metrics
   :
   • Loss Scenario
     : A 0DTE short put spread could lose $7.5k from a single 2% SPX drop, requiring 84 winning trades to recover [4].
   • Delta Exposure
     : 0DTE options have significantly higher delta (risk) vs standard options—e.g., a bear put spread on 0DTE had delta of -36.37 vs -3.43 for a 29-day expiry [5].

• Direct: SPX 0DTE options (calls/puts, spreads).
• Indirect: Related index products (SPY ETF 0DTE options), but focus remains on SPX.

• Exact strategy used (long/short, spreads vs outrights).
• Risk management rules (stop losses, position sizing).
• Replicability under different market conditions (downturns, higher volatility).

• SPX Volatility
  : Daily standard deviation trends (current:0.71% [0]).
• 0DTE Volume
  : Changes indicating shifts in market sentiment [1][2].
• Regulatory Updates
  : No recent changes found for 0DTE options, but future oversight could impact trading.

• Extreme Risk
  : Users should be aware that even limited-risk 0DTE strategies can lead to catastrophic losses if market moves against positions (e.g., a single 2% drop erases multiple gains) [4].
• Unrealistic Targets
  : The 18x return target requires consistent high-risk trading, increasing the likelihood of a “bust” scenario as mentioned by the trader.
• Market Dependency
  : The user’s gains were supported by an uptrend and low volatility—downturns or higher volatility could reverse progress [0].

[0] Ginlix Analytical Database (^GSPC Daily Prices, 60 Days to 2025-11-14).
[1] Cboe Insights, “The State of the Options Industry: Quarter Three 2025” (https://www.cboe.com/insights/posts/the-state-of-the-options-industry-quarter-three-2025).
[2] Cboe Insights, “SPX®0DTE Options Jump to Record62% Share in August” (https://www.cboe.com/insights/posts/spx-0-dte-options-jump-to-record-62-share-in-august/).
[3] Option Alpha, “The Rise of SPX0DTE Trading: Analyzing Volume Trends” (https://optionalpha.com/blog/the-rise-of-spx-0dte-trading-analyzing-volume-trends).
[4] TradingBlock, “0DTE Options:7 Strategies And When To Use Them” (https://tradingblock.com/blog/0dte-options-strategies).
[5] Tradestation, “Trading Zero Days to Expiration0DTE Options” (https://www.tradestation.com/learn/options-education-center/trading-zero-days-to-expiration-0dte-options/).