RKLB Options Strategy Analysis: Reddit LEAP Puts Trade and Market Context

This analysis is based on a Reddit post from November 15, 2025, at 07:07:37 EST, where a user disclosed selling 50 RKLB $60 strike LEAP puts for approximately $147,500 in premium [0]. This bullish options strategy implies an effective cost basis of $30.50 per share if assigned, representing a capital-generating play with significant downside risk and capped upside potential.

RKLB is currently trading at $45.54, down 19.92% over the past 30 days, with extreme volatility showing a 53.08% price range [0]. The stock reached a 52-week high of $73.97 in October 2025 but has since declined 33.1% from that peak. Despite the recent pullback, the options trade suggests the trader expects RKLB to remain above $60 by expiration, approximately 32% above current levels.

Recent Q3 2025 earnings showed strong revenue growth of $155.05M (+48% YoY) beating estimates of $151.75M, with EPS of -$0.03 significantly better than expected loss of -$0.11 [1]. The company also achieved a record GAAP gross margin of 37% [1]. However, RKLB maintains negative earnings with a P/E ratio of -119.84 and high valuation metrics (P/B ratio of 18.80x) [0].

The company successfully executed a NASA Mars mission launch on November 13, 2025 [2], and has received analyst price target raises to $75 from multiple firms including Stifel, Needham, and Keybanc [3]. A Neutron rocket launch is scheduled for early 2026, representing a key upcoming catalyst [3].

The Reddit user’s strategy involves substantial capital commitment - potential obligation to purchase 5,000 shares at $60 ($300,000 total) if assigned. The $147,500 premium represents immediate income but exposes the trader to significant downside risk if RKLB falls below the strike price. This strategy is particularly aggressive given RKLB’s high volatility (75 moves greater than 5% over the past year) [2] and recent negative earnings trajectory.

RKLB operates in the Aerospace & Defense subsector, which has benefited from increased government spending and space exploration initiatives. The Industrials sector is currently performing positively at +0.56913%, while Technology shows stronger performance at +2.03419% [0]. The successful NASA mission execution demonstrates operational capability and could support long-term growth prospects.

Despite 70.6% Buy ratings and consensus price target of $75.00 (+64.7% upside) [0], the stock’s recent 27.9% decline from October highs [4] suggests market skepticism. The divergence between bullish analyst sentiment and recent price action creates an interesting risk-reward scenario for sophisticated traders.

• Assignment Risk
  : If RKLB falls below $60, the trader faces a $300,000 capital obligation
• Volatility Risk
  : High stock volatility (4.61% daily standard deviation) could lead to rapid losses [0]
• Fundamental Concerns
  : Negative earnings (-$0.38 EPS) and cash burn remain persistent issues [0]
• Market Timing Risk
  : Recent 27.9% decline from October highs demonstrates vulnerability [4]

• Catalyst-Driven Upside
  : Neutron rocket launch in early 2026 could drive significant price appreciation
• Revenue Growth Trajectory
  : Strong 48% YoY revenue growth suggests improving business fundamentals [1]
• Government Contract Potential
  : Increased aerospace spending could support future contract wins
• Valuation Recovery
  : Current price 33.1% below 52-week highs may offer entry opportunity

The analysis reveals several risk factors that warrant attention. Selling naked LEAP puts involves significant downside risk requiring substantial capital reserves. Given RKLB’s negative earnings and high volatility, this strategy carries elevated risk that could significantly impact portfolio performance if the stock experiences further declines. Historical patterns suggest high-volatility growth stocks with negative earnings can experience sharp corrections during broader market pullbacks [0].

• 50 RKLB $60 strike LEAP puts sold for $147,500 premium
• Effective cost basis if assigned: $30.50 per share
• Maximum obligation: $300,000 for 5,000 shares at $60 strike

• Current Price: $45.54 (-19.92% over 30 days)
• Market Cap: $23.36B
• P/E Ratio: -119.84 (negative earnings)
• Current Ratio: 3.18 (strong liquidity)
• ROE: -40.21% (negative returns)

• 70.6% Buy, 23.5% Hold, 5.9% Sell ratings
• Consensus price target: $75.00 (+64.7% upside potential)

• Q4 2025 earnings results and guidance
• Neutron rocket development progress
• Government contract announcements
• Options flow and institutional positioning

This information synthesis provides context for the Reddit options strategy while highlighting the significant risks and potential opportunities in RKLB’s current market position. The trade represents a sophisticated bullish view on the company’s long-term prospects despite near-term volatility and fundamental challenges.