Structural Differentiation in the New Energy Industry: Energy Storage Drives Supply-Demand Mismatch in Lithium Battery Materials

According to an analysis published by a Snowball user on November 13, 2025 [1], the new energy industry is undergoing significant structural differentiation. Although the overall industry faces overcapacity issues, the midstream lithium battery materials segment driven by emerging demands such as energy storage shows a completely different supply-demand pattern. This differentiation is mainly reflected in key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC, which have experienced severe supply-demand mismatches due to the explosive growth of the energy storage market [1].

The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has shown an astonishing upward trend, soaring from 47,000 yuan/ton in July 2025 to 120,000-150,000 yuan/ton in November, with an increase of over 170% in 5 months [2][3]. On November 12, the market quotation was 145,000-155,000 yuan/ton, jumping by more than 20,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, presenting a tense situation of “one price per day” [2]. Behind this price surge is the combined effect of multiple factors:

: Global energy storage battery shipments reached 428 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90.7% [2]. China’s energy storage market shipments in the first three quarters were 430 GWh, which has exceeded 30% of the total annual volume of 2024 [4]. Leading battery enterprises like CATL have a capacity utilization rate of 90%, approaching full production [4].

: The long-term low price of lithium hexafluorophosphate over the past two years has led to large-scale losses in the industry, and a large number of small and medium-sized capacities have been cleared [2]. Leading enterprises are cautious about expanding production, and the new capacity to be released in 2026 is limited [2]. Industry inventory is at a historical low of only 1,500 tons, which is at the 35th percentile since 2019 [2].

The current market environment requires the investment logic to shift from traditional industry beta to segment alpha [1]. This means investors need to:

1. Focus on core targets
   : Choose enterprises with capacity advantages and pricing power
2. Seize structural opportunities
   : Identify supply-demand mismatches in segmented areas against the backdrop of overall overcapacity
3. Pay attention to inflation expectations
   : Capture structural growth opportunities under inflation expectations

Leading enterprises have locked in future earnings through long-term orders. Tianci Materials signed an 870,000-ton electrolyte supply agreement (2026-2028) with Guoxuan High-Tech, and a 725,000-ton supply agreement with Zhongchuangxinhang [5]. In addition, it also signed long-term supply agreements with Rupo Lanjun (800,000 tons) and Chueneng New Energy (550,000 tons) [3]. This order-locking strategy provides enterprises with stable performance certainty.

The market valuation of related targets shows significant differentiation:

• Tianci Materials (002709.SZ)
  : PE (TTM) is 160.72 times, reflecting the market’s expectation of its high growth [0]
• New宙邦 (300037.SZ)
  : PE (TTM) is 47.56 times, with a relatively reasonable valuation [0]
• Duofluoroduo (002407.SZ)
  : EPS is negative, indicating that profitability is still to be restored [0]

: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is already at a high level, and there is a risk of correction. Historical patterns show that commodity raw material prices usually experience sharp fluctuations after a surge, and investors should take this into account in their analysis.

: Current high prices may stimulate excessive capacity expansion, leading to a reversal of supply-demand relations in the future. Many enterprises have announced expansion plans, and it is necessary to pay attention to the actual production progress.

: Changes in new energy vehicle subsidy policies and energy storage support policies may affect downstream demand. This event has raised concerns about policy continuity, which is worth careful consideration.

: New technologies such as sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries may substitute traditional lithium battery materials.

: The stock prices of related targets have risen sharply, and valuations are generally high. Tianci Materials’ PE exceeds 160 times, and there is pressure for valuation correction.

1. Sustained Growth of Energy Storage Market
   : The global energy transition trend is irreversible, and energy storage demand is expected to remain strong
2. Increased Industry Concentration
   : After the clearance of small and medium-sized capacities, industry concentration increases, and leading enterprises’ bargaining power is enhanced
3. Technical Barrier Advantage
   : Lithium hexafluorophosphate production has high technical barriers, and new entrants face challenges
4. Industrial Chain Synergy Effect
   : Long-term order locking provides stable performance expectations and industrial chain synergy advantages

1. Price Trend of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate
   : Continuously track spot price changes
2. Energy Storage Installation Data
   : Monthly energy storage battery shipments and installation volume
3. Enterprise Capacity Utilization Rate
   : Actual capacity utilization of leading enterprises
4. Inventory Level Changes
   : Inventory digestion situation in each link of the industrial chain
5. New Capacity Launch Progress
   : Actual production time of expansion projects of various enterprises

Based on market data analysis, the new energy industry currently shows obvious structural differentiation characteristics. The midstream lithium battery materials segment driven by energy storage demand, especially products like lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC, has experienced significant price increases due to supply-demand mismatches. Investors should pay attention to leading enterprises with capacity advantages and pricing power, while closely monitoring key factors such as price trends, capacity expansion progress, and policy changes.

Against the backdrop of overall market adjustment (Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7% weekly, Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.58% weekly, ChiNext Index fell 2.12% weekly) [0], the structural opportunities in the new energy sub-sector are particularly prominent. However, it should be noted that the valuations of related targets are already at a high level, and investment decisions should fully consider the risk-return ratio.