Analysis of Kweichow Moutai's Popular List Position: Value Reassessment and Market Attention

Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) made it to the popular list on November 15, 2025, reflecting the market’s sustained attention to this baijiu industry leader. Currently, the stock price fluctuates between 1450-1500 yuan, with a total market capitalization maintaining at 1.8-1.9 trillion yuan [0]. There are multiple driving factors behind this popular position:

: The baijiu industry is undergoing cyclical adjustments, shifting from an incremental market to an era of stock competition. Channel inventory is under pressure, and overall growth rate is slowing down. However, as an industry leader, Moutai’s price decline more reflects the return of consumption to rationality—from “hoarding and speculation” back to the essence of “real drinking” [0]. This value reassessment process has instead attracted the attention of long-term value investors.

: In the first three quarters of 2025, Moutai achieved revenue of 130.904 billion yuan and net profit of 66.989 billion yuan, a year-on-year slight increase of about 0.5% [0]. Although the growth rate has slowed down, maintaining growth during the industry adjustment period is not easy. Current valuation indicators are relatively reasonable: PE ratio is about 20.38 times, PB ratio about 7.14 times, and price-to-earnings growth ratio (PEG) 0.58 [0], providing investors with a good margin of safety.

: Moutai is heavily held by 119 funds, with 949.06 million shares held, valued at 141.516 billion yuan [0]. Although the position was reduced by 3.69% compared to the previous period, it remains a core target among fund heavyweight stocks. Securities firms’ research reports are generally optimistic, with a target price increase of over 82% and positive investment ratings [0], which further boosted market enthusiasm.

: With its unique brand value and scarcity, Moutai still maintains strong pricing power during the industry adjustment period. The price of Feitian Moutai remains stable at 1499 yuan, and its Double 11 sales performance is good [0], showing that the basic market of consumer demand is still solid.

: Well-known investors such as Duan Yongping and other long-term investors still favor Moutai, believing that the impact of macro fluctuations on high-quality enterprises is temporary [0]. This support from long-term value investment philosophy provides a bottom support for Moutai’s stock price.

: Compared with historical highs, Moutai’s current valuation level is more reasonable. The PE ratio of about 20 times is at a relatively low historical level [0]. This valuation reversion provides a good entry opportunity for value investors.

:

• The cyclical adjustment of the baijiu industry may continue to deepen, affecting overall demand
• The trend of consumption downgrade may put pressure on the demand for high-end baijiu
• The reduction in fund holdings may reflect institutions’ short-term cautious attitude

:

• Industry concentration increases, and the market share of leading enterprises is expected to further expand
• Valuation reverts to a reasonable range, highlighting long-term investment value
• Consumption rationalization is conducive to the true reflection of brand value

Kweichow Moutai’s position on the popular list reflects the market’s recognition of its long-term investment value. Despite facing industry adjustment challenges, the company still deserves continuous attention from investors due to its strong brand moat, stable financial performance, and reasonable valuation level. The current stock price is in the range of 1450-1500 yuan, providing a good observation window for long-term value investors. Securities firms are generally optimistic, and the expectation of a target price increase of over 82% [0] also supports its popular position. Investors should pay attention to the progress of industry adjustments and the company’s performance to seize long-term investment opportunities.