Behind Vanke A's Popularity: The Tug-of-War Between Shenzhen Metro's Funding and Financial Distress

Vanke A (000002.SZ) showed a typical ‘high-profile yet underperforming stock’ feature in 2025. Its current stock price is around 6.27 yuan, with a year-to-date drop of nearly 30%, yet trading activity remains high—recent trading volume reached 2.227 million lots, with a turnover of 1.554 billion yuan [0]. This divergence between market attention and stock price performance mainly stems from Shenzhen Metro Group’s massive funding rescue operation.

Shenzhen Metro Group has provided a total of over 30 billion yuan in loans to Vanke this year, including 22 billion yuan in loan quota support [0]. Such a strong endorsement from a state-owned shareholder is extremely rare in the current real estate environment, making it the core focus of market attention. Market participants are closely watching whether this rescue model can continue and whether it signals a shift in industry rescue policies.

Despite receiving capital infusion from its major shareholder, Vanke’s financial situation continues to deteriorate. It recorded a net loss of 11.947 billion yuan in H1 2025, and the cumulative loss expanded to 28.02 billion yuan in the first three quarters [0]. More seriously, the prices of its US dollar bonds have plummeted—some bonds have fallen to around 50% of their face value, reflecting international investors’ deep concerns about its solvency. It will face a peak of 5.871 billion yuan in bond repayments in December, with huge liquidity pressure.

In 2025, China’s real estate industry has shown signs of stabilizing after stopping its decline, driven by policies. The central bank implemented RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, lowering the LPR by 0.1 percentage points and the housing provident fund interest rate to 2.6% [1]. Purchase restrictions have been relaxed in many places—for example, Shenzhen lifted residential purchase restrictions in 8 districts, and Beijing canceled the purchase quota limit outside the Fifth Ring Road [2]. The market has shown signs of recovery: during the ‘Golden September and Silver October’ period, new home prices in core cities rose slightly structurally, and the sales of TOP 100 real estate enterprises increased month-on-month [3]. However, as an industry leader, Vanke’s fundamental improvement lags significantly behind the overall industry trend.

Shenzhen Metro Group’s capital infusion has alleviated Vanke’s liquidity pressure in the short term, but the sustainability of this rescue model faces challenges. On one hand, the rescue capacity of state-owned shareholders is limited; on the other hand, simple capital injection is difficult to solve the fundamental problem of Vanke’s business model transformation.

Vanke’s predicament reflects the transformation pains of China’s real estate industry shifting from an investment-oriented nature back to a residential-oriented one [4]. Even if the industry as a whole shows signs of recovery, there are huge differences among individual enterprises, and those overly reliant on traditional development models face greater challenges.

Current market attention on Vanke reflects the dynamic between policy expectations and fundamentals. While investors are betting on increased policy rescue efforts, they are also evaluating the prospects of the company’s recovery in self-generated cash flow capacity. This dynamic has increased the volatility of Vanke’s stock price, but the overall trend remains downward.

• Liquidity Risk
  : The peak of 5.871 billion yuan in bond repayments in December may trigger a liquidity crisis [0]
• Risk of Expanding Losses
  : The cumulative loss in the first three quarters was 28.02 billion yuan; if it cannot be reversed in Q4, the full-year loss will further expand [0]
• Debt Default Risk
  : US dollar bond prices have fallen to 50% of face value, reflecting a significant increase in default risk [0]
• Rescue Uncertainty
  : There is uncertainty about Shenzhen Metro Group’s rescue capacity and willingness

• Policy Dividends
  : Continuous optimization of real estate policies may provide a window for the company’s business transformation [1][2]
• Industry Recovery
  : Signs of overall recovery in the real estate market provide an external environment for the company’s sales improvement [3]
• State-owned Backing
  : Shenzhen Metro Group’s support provides the company with a relatively stable shareholder background

The bond repayment in December is a key time node that will directly affect the company’s short-term liquidity situation. At the same time, the sales performance in Q4 2025 will determine the company’s full-year performance trend, which deserves close attention.

The core logic behind Vanke A becoming a market focus is the stark contrast between Shenzhen Metro Group’s over 30 billion yuan funding rescue and the company’s severe financial distress. The current stock price of 6.27 yuan, down 30% year-to-date, reflects market concerns about the company’s fundamentals [0]. Although the real estate policy environment continued to optimize in 2025 and the industry showed signs of recovery [1][2][3], Vanke’s cumulative loss in the first three quarters was 28.02 billion yuan, and it faces 5.871 billion yuan in bond repayment pressure in December [0], indicating a significant divergence between the company’s individual predicament and the overall industry trend. Investors should focus on the sustainability of Shenzhen Metro’s rescue, the December bond repayment situation, and the progress of the company’s business improvement in Q4. These factors will determine whether Vanke can survive the current crisis and achieve a successful transformation of its business model.