ES Futures Technical Analysis: 50DMA Break and Dead Cat Bounce Assessment

This analysis is based on a Reddit post [Event source] published on November 14, 2025, highlighting that E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) dipped below the 50-day moving average for the second consecutive Friday, questioning whether the recent bounce represents a dead cat bounce.

The current technical situation is particularly significant given the historical context. The S&P 500 had not tested its 50-day moving average in 131 trading sessions - the longest streak above this level since 2007 - until November 7, 2025 [4]. On that date, the index dipped below the 50-day MA midday but reversed higher to finish positive, described as “snatching victory from the jaws of defeat” [4].

As of November 14, 2025, market data shows:

• S&P 500
  : 6,734.11 (+0.93%) [0]
• NASDAQ
  : 22,900.59 (+1.58%) [0]
• Dow Jones
  : 47,147.48 (-0.16%) [0]

The ES futures were trading around 6,779.25, with the 50-day moving average serving as a critical support/resistance level in the 6,700-6,750 range [2]. The market has been consolidating between 6,700 and 6,850, with buyers stepping in near support levels [1].

A “dead cat bounce” is defined as a temporary, short-lived recovery from a prolonged decline that is followed by a continuation of the downtrend [3]. Key characteristics include pattern recognition where the bounce appears to be a reversal but is actually a continuation pattern, confirmation only after price drops below its prior low, and typically lacking fundamental backing.

The current situation shows ES testing the 50-day MA for the second consecutive Friday, which increases the probability of a more significant trend change if support fails to hold. The increased volume during recent selloffs suggests institutional participation, adding weight to the technical significance.

1. Federal Reserve Policy Impact
   : Traders are pricing in less than 50% chance of a rate cut in December, down from 62.9% earlier in the week [3], which may be contributing to the technical pressure.

2. Sector Performance Influence
   : Tech and semiconductor stocks have faced pressure, with AI-related groups experiencing selling [5], potentially dragging the broader market lower.

3. Volatility Dynamics
   : The VIX has been elevated, indicating increased market uncertainty that often accompanies significant technical level tests.

The consecutive Friday tests of the 50-day moving average suggest a systematic pattern rather than random market noise. This timing could indicate:

• Institutional rebalancing occurring on Fridays
• Weekend risk management positioning
• Potential accumulation by smart money at key support levels

The 131-session streak above the 50-day MA ending now represents a significant regime change in market behavior, potentially signaling the end of the strong uptrend that characterized much of 2025.

Key monitoring points include:

1. Sustained Break Below 50-Day MA
   : A close below 6,700 could signal further downside toward 6,550 [1]
2. Volume Confirmation
   : Whether any recovery is supported by strong buying volume
3. Death Cross Formation
   : If the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA
4. Increased Volatility
   : Sustained VIX levels above 20
5. Breadth Deterioration
   : Declining advance/decline ratios and new highs/new lows

1. Support Holding
   : If the 50-day MA holds as support, it could provide a strong entry point for long positions
2. Seasonal Factors
   : November historically shows positive performance tendencies
3. Contrarian Signals
   : Extreme pessimism at support levels often precedes sharp reversals

The immediate risk is heightened due to the consecutive Friday pattern. The next 1-2 trading sessions will be crucial in determining whether this is indeed a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a more sustained downtrend. Weekend gap risk should be considered given the elevated uncertainty.

• Current Level
  : ES futures testing 50-day MA around 6,700-6,750
• Pattern
  : Second consecutive Friday below 50-day MA
• Historical Context
  : First 50-day MA test in 131 sessions
• Volume
  : Increased participation during recent selloffs

• Fed Policy
  : Less than 50% chance of December rate cut
• Sector Pressure
  : Tech and AI stocks facing selling pressure
• Volatility
  : Elevated VIX indicating increased uncertainty

1. Specific ES Futures Data
   : Precise ES futures price levels and 50-day MA calculations for November 14
2. Volume Analysis
   : Detailed volume patterns during the recent tests of the 50-day MA
3. Institutional Flow Data
   : Current positioning of large traders and commercial hedgers
4. Options Market Sentiment
   : Put/call ratios and implied volatility skew

The question of whether ES is experiencing a dead cat bounce remains unresolved without additional technical confirmation. The market’s ability to hold above the 50-day moving average will be crucial in determining the short-term direction. Decision-makers should monitor for sustained breaks below key support levels and watch for confirmation of either trend continuation or reversal through volume and price action.