Bitcoin Bear Market Analysis: Technical Breakdown Below $100,000 with $1B ETF Outflows

This analysis is based on the Fox Business report [1] published on November 14, 2025, which detailed Bitcoin’s significant decline below key technical levels. The cryptocurrency market experienced a substantial correction, with Bitcoin falling over 20% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272, breaking through the psychologically critical $100,000 support level [1]. This technical breakdown triggered broader market concerns and significant capital flight from cryptocurrency investment vehicles.

The market impact extended beyond Bitcoin, with Ethereum declining 35.82% from its August 2025 all-time intraday high of $4,955.23 [1]. Major cryptocurrency ETFs suffered substantial losses, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing $932 million in outflows and Ethereum ETFs seeing $438 million in outflows through last week [1]. The institutional exodus was evident in the performance of leading ETFs: iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) both declined 3.80%, while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fell 3.78% [1].

Traditional equity markets showed mixed performance during the same period, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% to 47,147.48, S&P 500 down 0.05% to 6,734.11, while NASDAQ managed a modest 0.13% gain to 22,900.59 [0]. Sector performance revealed a clear risk-off sentiment, with Technology (+2.03%) and Utilities (+2.16%) leading gains, while Communication Services (-2.21%) and Basic Materials (-0.94%) lagged [0].

The break below $100,000 represents a major technical failure, as this support level had held firm since late June 2025 according to market analysis [2]. Technical analysts suggest the next critical support level sits at approximately $84,000 based on Fibonacci retracement analysis [3]. This level could trigger further automated selling if breached, potentially accelerating the downside momentum.

The cryptocurrency decline was attributed to multiple interconnected factors [1][2][3]:

1. Risk Asset Rotation
   : Systematic movement out of speculative assets amid broader market uncertainty
2. Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty
   : Diminishing expectations for rate cuts, with CME FedWatch Tool showing only 45% probability of a December rate cut
3. Government Shutdown Impact
   : Delayed economic data creating uncertainty about monetary policy direction
4. Liquidity Crunch
   : Broader risk-off sentiment affecting high-beta assets across all markets

The nearly $1 billion in combined crypto ETF outflows indicates significant institutional liquidation pressure [1]. This capital flight suggests that professional investors are systematically reducing exposure to cryptocurrency assets, potentially anticipating further downside or reallocating to less volatile investments. The coordinated nature of these outflows across both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggests a broader institutional reassessment of cryptocurrency risk exposure.

1. Support Level Testing
   : The $84,000 support level represents a critical technical threshold. A breach could trigger cascading automated selling and accelerate downside momentum [3].
2. Leverage Liquidations
   : The derivatives market faces potential cascading liquidations that could amplify price declines beyond fundamental levels.
3. Institutional Herding
   : Coordinated institutional exits may create temporary liquidity vacuums, exacerbating price volatility.

1. Federal Reserve Policy Clarity
   : Any signals regarding monetary policy stance could significantly impact risk appetite and cryptocurrency valuations.
2. Technical Recovery
   : The ability to reclaim and hold above $100,000 would be psychologically important for market sentiment recovery.
3. ETF Flow Reversal
   : Monitoring for signs of institutional re-entry through positive ETF flows could indicate market bottom formation.

Historical Bitcoin bear markets have typically lasted 12-18 months with 70-85% peak-to-trough declines. However, the current institutional infrastructure suggests faster recovery potential compared to previous cycles. The ongoing regulatory clarity process may influence institutional re-entry timing and market stabilization.

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant correction phase characterized by technical breakdown below key support levels, substantial institutional outflows, and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s decline below $100,000 marks a psychological and technical inflection point, with $84,000 identified as the next critical support level [3]. The nearly $1 billion in ETF outflows indicates institutional risk reduction, while traditional markets show mixed performance with clear risk-off sentiment in certain sectors [0][1].

Market participants should monitor Federal Reserve policy developments, technical support levels, and ETF flow patterns for indicators of potential market stabilization. The combination of technical weakness and macroeconomic uncertainty suggests elevated near-term volatility, though the extent and duration of the current bear market phase will depend on broader market conditions and institutional risk appetite recovery.