Weekly Market Recap & Weekend Outlook - November 14, 2025

This analysis is based on market data and news coverage through November 14, 2025, showing markets ending a volatile week on a mixed note. The S&P 500 and Dow managed modest gains while the Nasdaq posted slight losses amid growing concerns about AI valuations and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty [0][1]. The week featured dramatic intraday swings, with Thursday marking the worst single-day performance since October 10th, followed by a partial recovery on Friday as investors rebalanced positions ahead of key catalysts next week, particularly Nvidia’s earnings report [1].

• S&P 500
  : Closed at 6,735.10, gaining 0.1% for the week and 5.49% over 60 days [0]
• Nasdaq Composite
  : Finished at 22,899.53, declining 0.5% weekly but maintaining an 8.32% gain over 60 days [0]
• Dow Jones Industrial
  : Settled at 47,122.12, up 0.3% weekly with 4.83% gains over 60 days [0]
• Russell 2000
  : Ended at 2,387.50, showing 4.48% growth over 60 days [0]

The week’s volatility was most pronounced on Thursday, when the Dow lost nearly 800 points before staging a partial recovery on Friday [1]. Sector performance on Friday showed Technology (+2.03%), Energy (+3.12%), and Utilities (+2.16%) leading the rebound, while Communication Services lagged with a 2.21% decline [0].

The artificial intelligence investment theme faced significant headwinds as concerns about elevated valuations intensified. Prominent investors including Bill Gates, Michael Burry, and Jim Chanos voiced concerns about AI profitability, while SoftBank made a decisive move by selling its entire $6 billion Nvidia stake [1]. Oracle’s disappointing quarterly results further spooked investors regarding cloud growth prospects, contributing to broader tech sector weakness [1].

Mounting doubts about December rate cuts became a major headwind for market sentiment. Traders now price in less than 50% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December Fed meeting, a dramatic reduction from 95.5% probability just a month ago [1]. Federal Reserve officials including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed opposition to further easing, citing persistent inflation concerns [1][2].

The end of the 43-day government shutdown raised new questions about economic data availability, with the White House press secretary suggesting some October economic data might never be released, creating additional uncertainty for policymakers and investors [1]. Additionally, Iran’s seizure of an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday contributed to a 3% rally in crude oil prices above $60/barrel, reviving concerns about potential supply disruptions [1].

• Scholar Rock
  : +23% on Friday following positive FDA meeting for biologics license application [1]
• Figure Technology Solutions
  : +20% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings [1]
• Cidara Therapeutics
  : +103% after Merck agreed to acquire the company for $9.2 billion [1]

• Strategy (MSTR)
  : -17% for the week, marking worst performance since August 2024 amid bitcoin decline [1]
• StubHub
  : -23% premarket after CEO announced company wouldn’t provide current quarter guidance [1]
• Walmart
  : -3% following CEO Doug McMillon’s retirement announcement [1]
• Oracle
  : Continued weakness following AI growth concerns [1]

Market breadth showed eight S&P 500 stocks hitting all-time highs on Friday including Assurant, Hartford Financial, and Loews, while eight stocks reached 52-week lows including Charter Communications and Molina Healthcare [1].

The week revealed clear signs of sector rotation, with investors systematically trimming technology exposure and adding to more attractively valued sectors like healthcare and financials [1]. The high-beta trade appears to be unwinding, with JPMorgan advising investors to seek “calm stocks” amid the volatility [1]. This rotation suggests a potential shift in market leadership away from growth-dominated AI themes toward more defensive value-oriented sectors.

Technical levels indicate critical support and resistance zones that could determine near-term market direction:

• S&P 500
  : Key support around 6,700 with resistance at 6,800 [1]
• Nasdaq
  : Critical support near 22,800, with Nvidia’s earnings potentially acting as a catalyst for either breakout or breakdown [1]
• Dow
  : Maintaining above 47,000, with 48,000 serving as psychological resistance [1]

The market’s ability to hold these levels, particularly following Nvidia’s earnings report, could signal whether the recent tech weakness represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a more prolonged rotation.

The dramatic shift in Fed rate cut expectations from 95.5% to under 50% probability for December reflects rapidly changing monetary policy perceptions [1]. This uncertainty, combined with AI valuation concerns and geopolitical tensions, has created a more cautious market environment. The government shutdown’s impact on economic data availability adds another layer of complexity for investors trying to assess economic conditions [1].

: The Strait of Hormuz incident could escalate further, potentially impacting oil supplies and broader market sentiment [1]. Any escalation over the weekend could trigger risk-off trading on Monday.

: The timing and availability of economic data releases following the government shutdown remains unclear, potentially affecting market participants’ ability to make informed decisions [1].

: Weekend commentary from Fed officials could further influence rate cut expectations and market positioning ahead of the FOMC minutes release next week [1][2].

: Potential M&A activity or significant corporate announcements over the weekend could create sector-specific volatility on Monday [1].

: The ongoing rotation from high-growth tech to more attractively valued sectors like financials, healthcare, and energy could present opportunities for investors seeking to rebalance portfolios [1].

: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday could create significant trading opportunities in both the stock and related AI/semiconductor stocks, depending on the results and guidance [1].

: The increased market uncertainty may benefit defensive sectors and high-quality dividend-paying stocks as investors seek stability [1].

: Major indices showed mixed performance with S&P 500 (+0.1%) and Dow (+0.3%) posting modest weekly gains, while Nasdaq declined (-0.5%). The week featured significant volatility, particularly Thursday’s sharp sell-off followed by Friday’s partial recovery [0][1].

: AI valuation concerns intensified with SoftBank’s complete exit from Nvidia and prominent investors questioning AI profitability. Federal Reserve policy uncertainty increased as December rate cut odds fell below 50% from 95.5% a month ago [1][2].

: The most significant catalyst will be Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, which accounts for roughly 8% of the S&P 500 and could determine near-term AI sector direction. The FOMC minutes release on Wednesday will also provide important insights into Fed policy thinking [1].

: Critical support levels to watch include S&P 500 at 6,700, Nasdaq at 22,800, and Dow at 47,000. Resistance levels are at 6,800 for S&P 500 and 48,000 for Dow [1].

: Markets showed clear sector rotation away from technology toward more defensive value sectors. The high-beta trade appears to be unwinding, with investors seeking “calm stocks” amid increased uncertainty [1].