Reddit Soybean Futures Analysis: Fact-Checking Market Claims vs. Actual Data

This analysis examines a Reddit post published on November 14, 2025, at 13:49 EST [0] that argued soybean futures were overbought despite record storage levels and predicted a First Notice Day drop toward $9.50. The investigation reveals significant factual inaccuracies in the Reddit analysis, including incorrect ticker symbol usage, inaccurate storage level claims, and timing errors. Actual market data shows tightening supplies rather than oversupply, with November 2025 soybean futures (ZSX25) trading at $11.194, down 1.10% on the day [1].

The Reddit post’s fundamental error involves ticker symbol confusion. While ZS is referenced, this actually corresponds to Zscaler Inc. (a cybersecurity company), not soybean futures [0]. The correct soybean futures ticker on CME Group is ZS, but the November 2025 contract trades under ZSX25 [1]. This symbol confusion undermines the entire analysis credibility.

: The Reddit post claims “record storage levels” and “storage 100%” [0], but official USDA WASDE data contradicts this narrative. The November 2025 WASDE report shows:

• U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025-26: 290 million bushels (down from 300 mb in September) [2]
• Global ending stocks for 2025-26: 121.99 million metric tons (down from 123.99) [2]

These figures indicate tightening supplies, not oversupply as claimed in the Reddit post.

: November 2025 soybean futures are currently trading at 1119-4 cents ($11.194), with a 52-week range of 961-0 to 1138-6 cents ($9.61-$11.386) [1]. The $9.50 target mentioned in the Reddit post would represent a 15% decline from current levels and would break below the 52-week low.

Commitment of Traders data as of September 23, 2025, shows:

• Commercial traders: Net long 7,371 contracts [1]
• Non-commercial traders: Net long 5,748 contracts [1]
• Managed money: Net short 24,742 contracts [1]

This positioning contradicts the Reddit post’s claim of “large-scale position accumulation” distorting prices. Commercial hedgers are net long, while speculative managed money is net short, suggesting professional market participants see value at current levels.

The Reddit post mentions “First Notice Day” as a catalyst for a price drop, but this timing is incorrect. The First Notice Date for November 2025 soybean futures was October 31, 2025, with contract expiration on November 14, 2025 (today) [1]. This makes the predictive timeframe mentioned in the Reddit post irrelevant.

The soybean market is currently influenced by several interconnected factors:

• Supply Tightening
  : USDA data shows declining ending stocks contrary to Reddit claims [2]
• Demand Uncertainty
  : Limited Chinese buying continues to pressure the market [1]
• Technical Support
  : Current levels find support near 52-week lows, with resistance at $11.40 [1]

The Reddit analysis demonstrates the risks of relying on social media for market intelligence:

• Symbol confusion indicates lack of basic market knowledge
• Storage level claims contradict official USDA data
• Timing errors suggest misunderstanding of contract specifications

Recent market commentary indicates soybeans are “falling back as USDA drops export and limited China buying” [1], suggesting the current price decline is fundamentally justified rather than speculative manipulation as claimed in the Reddit post.

1. Demand Uncertainty
   : Limited Chinese buying remains a legitimate concern for soybean demand [1]
2. Weather Risk
   : South American growing season weather could impact 2026 supplies
3. Currency Volatility
   : USD strength could pressure export competitiveness

The Reddit post contains several critical inaccuracies that could mislead investors:

• Incorrect ticker symbol usage (ZS vs. ZSX25)
• Inaccurate storage level claims not supported by USDA data
• Missed First Notice Day timing making predictions irrelevant
• Contradicted by actual COT positioning data

Key factors to watch for market direction:

1. Weekly Export Sales
   : USDA export announcement reports
2. South American Weather
   : Brazil and Argentina growing conditions
3. China Policy Changes
   : Agricultural trade policy developments
4. Biofuel Mandates
   : Renewable fuel standard updates

The Reddit post’s analysis contains significant factual errors that undermine its conclusions. Actual market data shows:

• Price Level
  : November soybean futures at $11.194, down 1.10% [1]
• Supply Trend
  : Tightening supplies with declining ending stocks [2]
• Market Positioning
  : Commercial hedgers net long, managed money net short [1]
• Technical Context
  : Trading near 52-week lows with support at current levels [1]

The $9.50 price target appears unrealistic given current fundamentals and technical levels. Decision-makers should rely on official USDA data and verified market sources rather than social media speculation for agricultural commodity analysis.