Fundstrat Technical Warning: Critical Support Levels at Risk as Market Breadth Deteriorates

This analysis is based on the MarketWatch report [1] published on November 14, 2025, detailing Fundstrat’s technical warning about critical market support levels. The warning follows significant market weakness on November 13, which marked the worst session in over a month, with the Nasdaq Composite sliding 2.3% [1].

Fundstrat’s Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton has identified two crucial support levels that U.S. stocks must maintain to prevent further volatility [1][2]:

• S&P 500 (^SPX)
  : Must hold above 6,631 (early November lows)
• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
  : Must maintain support above 599

Current market positioning shows these levels are being tested:

• S&P 500 closed at 6,737.49 on November 13 (-1.3%), approximately 106 points above critical support [0]
• QQQ closed at $608.40 (-2.04%), providing only 9 points of cushion above the 599 support level [0][3]

The most concerning aspect highlighted by Newton is the poor market breadth, which he notes “remains a concern” [1]. This internal weakness is particularly significant because markets “normally start to show internal weakness ahead of corrective periods” [1][2]. The breadth deterioration suggests underlying market participation is weakening even if major indices appear stable.

Trading volumes have been elevated, indicating institutional selling pressure:

• SPY volume reached 102.57M (above average of 74.71M) [3]
• QQQ volume reached 69.82M (above average of 54.63M) [3]

The combination of elevated volumes with declining prices typically signals increased market uncertainty and potential institutional distribution.

Newton’s analysis carries particular weight given his observation that similar breadth deterioration occurred “late last year ahead of the 2025 decline” [2]. This historical pattern suggests the current technical warning may be more than routine market noise.

While Newton maintains that “near-term US Equity trends are bullish,” he acknowledges the market has entered “a choppier environment which might require some consolidation before SPX can push back to new highs” [2]. This suggests that even if support levels hold, significant consolidation may be required before the market can resume its uptrend.

The U.S. market weakness contrasts with relatively modest declines in Asian markets on November 14:

• Shanghai Composite: -0.24% [4]
• Shenzhen Component: -0.19% [4]
• ChiNext Index: -0.34% [4]

This divergence suggests the current U.S. market weakness may be more technical and structural in nature rather than driven by global economic factors.

1. Support Level Violation Risk
   : Newton explicitly states that breaking the identified levels would “point to further near-term volatility in November before U.S. equities can officially stabilize and move higher” [1][2]. A violation of S&P 500 below 6,631 or QQQ below 599 could trigger significant technical selling pressure.

2. Breadth Deterioration Acceleration
   : The continued weakening of market breadth may signal that institutional investors are reducing exposure across multiple sectors, potentially indicating a broader shift in market sentiment.

3. Volatility Escalation
   : The elevated trading volumes combined with declining prices suggest increased market uncertainty that could lead to higher volatility levels.

Key indicators to track include:

• Daily closes relative to the 6,631 (S&P 500) and 599 (QQQ) support levels
• Breadth metrics including advance/decline ratios and new highs/new lows
• Sector performance patterns to identify rotation dynamics
• Volatility indices (VIX) for fear gauge assessment
• Volume patterns and institutional flow data

The near-term nature of this warning requires immediate attention. Newton’s reference to “further near-term volatility in November” [1] suggests the current risk environment is time-sensitive, with the remainder of November being a critical period for market stabilization.

The technical warning from Fundstrat identifies critical support levels at S&P 500 6,631 and QQQ 599 that must hold to prevent further market volatility [1][2]. Current market positioning shows these levels are being tested following the worst market session in over a month. The primary concern centers on deteriorating market breadth, which historically has preceded market corrections [2].

While overall trends remain bullish according to Newton, the market has entered a choppier environment requiring consolidation before new highs can be achieved [2]. Elevated trading volumes suggest institutional selling pressure, and the proximity to critical support levels indicates limited margin for error in the near term.

The technical indicators suggest markets are at a critical juncture where support violations could trigger accelerated declines, making careful monitoring of these levels and breadth metrics essential for understanding market direction through the remainder of November.