LLY Options Trading Analysis: Reddit User Reports Personal Record Call Options Gain

This analysis is based on a Reddit post [5] published on November 14, 2025, at 05:48:49 EST, where a user reported achieving a personal record gain on LLY call options and expressed regret for not holding longer. The post reflects broader market enthusiasm surrounding Eli Lilly’s exceptional performance.

LLY has demonstrated extraordinary momentum, gaining 49.45% over the past three months and 25.91% in the last month [0]. The stock closed at $1,022.87 on November 13, 2025, representing a 0.50% daily gain and approaching its 52-week high of $1,032.95 [0]. This performance is driven by several key catalysts:

1. Government Partnership
   : On November 6, 2025, Eli Lilly announced a landmark agreement with the Trump administration to provide Zepbound (obesity drug) at discounted prices to Medicare recipients [1][2], significantly expanding market access.

2. Market Leadership
   : LLY’s tirzepatide became the world’s best-selling drug in Q3 2025 with $24.8 billion in year-to-date sales [1].

3. Valuation Milestone
   : The company’s $918.83B market cap positions it as a potential candidate to become the first pharmaceutical company to reach $1 trillion valuation [3].

The stock’s technical indicators support the bullish options activity observed in the Reddit post. LLY maintains an IBD Composite Rating of 99/99 [4], indicating exceptional technical strength. However, fundamental metrics reveal elevated risk levels with a P/E ratio of 49.99x [0], suggesting premium pricing that could make the stock vulnerable to corrections.

The Reddit user’s successful call options trade aligns with multiple converging factors: strong technical momentum, fundamental growth drivers, and expanding market opportunities. The user’s expression of regret about “not holding longer” reflects broader market sentiment that LLY’s growth story may have further room to run, despite already substantial gains.

The consistent daily gains of 1-3% over the past week (November 10-13) [0] created favorable conditions for call options traders. However, the stock’s proximity to 52-week highs increases options premium costs while also elevating the risk of mean reversion pullbacks.

Despite strong fundamentals, LLY trades at a significant premium to historical pharmaceutical valuations. The average analyst price target of $889.00 [0] sits below current levels, suggesting potential overvaluation concerns that could trigger volatility.

1. Valuation Risk
   : LLY’s premium P/E ratio of 49.99x [0] makes it vulnerable to earnings disappointments or broader market corrections. Historical patterns indicate that stocks with P/E ratios above 50x are particularly susceptible to sharp corrections during market downturns.

2. Technical Risk
   : Trading near 52-week highs increases the probability of mean reversion pullbacks [0]. The stock’s consistent upward trajectory may be unsustainable without continued catalyst support.

3. Options-Specific Risks
   : Time decay (theta) becomes more aggressive as expiration approaches, and implied volatility may be elevated, increasing premium costs. The Reddit user’s emotional response about “not holding longer” suggests potential decision-making biases.

4. Competition and Regulatory Risk
   : The obesity drug market faces increasing competition from Novo Nordisk and potential regulatory changes that could impact growth trajectories [1][2].

1. Continued Expansion
   : The Medicare agreement for Zepbound could drive sustained revenue growth as enrollment increases [1][2].

2. Market Leadership
   : LLY’s position as the world’s best-selling drug manufacturer provides competitive advantages and pricing power [1].

3. Institutional Interest
   : Strong analyst consensus with 70.5% Buy ratings [0] suggests continued institutional support.

• Current Price: $1,022.87 (November 13, 2025) [0]
• Market Cap: $918.83B [0]
• P/E Ratio: 49.99x [0]
• Net Profit Margin: 30.99% [0]
• Revenue Growth: 38% year-over-year [3]
• 3-Month Performance: +49.45% [0]
• 52-Week Range: $623.78 - $1,032.95 [0]

The Reddit post lacks critical details for comprehensive risk assessment, including specific options contract details (strike price, expiration date), position size, entry/exit timing, and actual profit amounts. This limitation prevents quantitative evaluation of the trade’s risk-reward profile.

Decision-makers should track upcoming earnings announcements, Medicare enrollment numbers for Zepbound, competitive developments from Novo Nordisk, changes in analyst price targets, and institutional options flow data to assess whether current momentum can be sustained or if a correction is imminent.