October Jobs Report Will Not Include Unemployment Rate Due to Government Shutdown

This analysis is based on the Bloomberg report [1] published on November 13, 2025, detailing National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s announcement about the October jobs report. The government shutdown that began in early October 2025 has created an unprecedented gap in U.S. economic data, with the household survey not conducted for the first time since 1948 [2][4].

The employment report consists of two components: the establishment survey (businesses) for payroll data and the household survey for unemployment rate [3][4]. While the establishment survey data can be recovered, the household survey requires physical data collection from approximately 60,000 randomly selected households by Census Bureau field workers, making it particularly vulnerable to shutdowns [2]. Unlike the establishment survey, subsequent household surveys cannot retroactively ask about prior months’ employment status, creating a permanent blind spot in America’s economic record [2].

The shutdown has already inflicted significant economic damage, with the Council of Economic Advisors estimating costs of approximately $15 billion per week and fourth-quarter GDP projected to be 1.5% lower than it would have been without the shutdown [6]. Goldman Sachs economists estimate nonfarm payrolls declined by 50,000 in October, potentially the second monthly drop since December 2020 [5].

The interruption of the household survey represents a historic break in a 77-year streak of continuous unemployment rate reporting [2]. This data gap creates significant challenges for economic policymakers, particularly the Federal Reserve, which relies on this information for monetary policy decisions. The Chicago Fed’s Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for October 2025 was 4.36%, but this estimate carries higher uncertainty than usual due to the data gap [2].

The lack of October unemployment data creates uncertainty for financial markets. Current sector performance shows mixed reactions, with Healthcare leading (+1.177%) while Utilities lagged (-2.393%) [0], suggesting investors are processing the economic uncertainty with varying sector-specific impacts. Private-sector data suggests a weakening labor market, with ADP data indicating potential job losses in October [1].

The announcement represents a partial reversal from earlier warnings. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had previously warned that October economic data would “likely never” be published and could be “permanently impaired” [4]. Hassett’s clarification that partial data would be available represents a less severe outcome than initially feared, though the unemployment rate will remain permanently unknown.

The absence of October unemployment data leaves Federal Reserve policymakers “flying blind at a critical period” [2]. This data gap complicates assessments of labor market health and inflation trajectory, potentially delaying or misguiding monetary policy decisions. Economists face increased uncertainty in evaluating the economy’s performance without official unemployment data.

The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics warned that “October 2025 will permanently remain a partial blind spot in America’s official record” [2]. This represents a significant loss of historical economic data that cannot be reconstructed, potentially affecting long-term economic modeling and policy planning.

The missing unemployment rate creates challenges for market participants who rely on this data for investment decisions. While payroll data will provide some insight, the complete labor market picture remains obscured, potentially increasing market volatility and reducing confidence in economic forecasts.

• Government shutdown began in early October 2025 [1]
• October jobs report was originally scheduled for November 7, 2025 [4]
• Shutdown ended recently, allowing data collection to resume [1]
• September jobs report, also delayed, is “already been cooked” and may be released next week [4]

• Available: October payroll data from establishment survey
• Missing: October unemployment rate, household employment demographics, complete labor force participation data
• Permanent gap: October 2025 unemployment rate will never be known [1][4]

• Shutdown cost: ~$15 billion per week [6]
• Q4 GDP impact: 1.5% lower than without shutdown [6]
• October nonfarm payrolls: estimated -50,000 (Goldman Sachs) [5]

The October jobs report will be released with partial data, but the unemployment rate gap represents a significant challenge for economic analysis and policy-making during a critical period for the U.S. economy.