Treasury Yields Rise as Government Reopens Amid Economic Data Uncertainty

This analysis is based on the Wall Street Journal report [1] published on November 13, 2025, covering Treasury market movements following the U.S. government reopening.

The U.S. government reopened on November 12, 2025, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history at 43 days [2][3]. President Trump signed the funding bill that passed the House 222-209 and will fund the government through January 30, 2025 [2][3]. The shutdown had furloughed more than 1 million federal workers and delayed critical economic data releases [2].

U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly following the government reopening announcement, reflecting market relief but also caution about the economic data landscape [0]:

• 10-year Treasury yield
  : +1.7 basis points to 4.095% [3]
• 2-year Treasury yield
  : +2.1 basis points to 3.586% [3]
• 30-year Treasury yield
  : +1.6 basis points to 4.677% [3]

According to CNBC, yields held steady with the 10-year rising more than 1 basis point to 4.092%, the 2-year up more than 2 basis points at 3.589%, and the 30-year climbing more than 1 basis point to 4.674% [2].

• U.S. futures were mostly higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1% and Dow futures up 0.2% [3]
• The S&P closed at its fifth-highest level in history, while the DJIA hit its 17th record close this year [3]
• However, the Nasdaq closed lower due to continued concerns about excessive valuations [3]

• Asian shares closed mostly higher, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi adding 0.5% [3]
• European indexes were mostly higher except London’s FTSE 100, which fell 0.2% [3]

• The U.S. dollar fell 0.2% to 99.323 against major currencies as traders turned cautious over weak data prospects following the government reopening [3]

The most significant concern emerging from the shutdown is the potential permanent loss of key economic data [2]:

• Critical delayed reports
  : Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Non-Farm Payrolls reports were delayed during the shutdown [2]
• Permanent data loss risk
  : White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that “October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released” and that “all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed, flying blind at a critical period” [2]
• BLS capacity constraints
  : The Bureau of Labor Statistics entered the shutdown with 25% less staff since February, with one-third of leadership positions vacant, potentially slowing data recovery [4]

The modest yield increases suggest markets are processing mixed signals [0]:

1. Relief factor
   : Government reopening removes immediate uncertainty and allows federal workers to return to work
2. Data uncertainty factor
   : Concerns about permanently impaired economic data could affect Fed policy decisions
3. Technical factors
   : The Treasury conducted its November refunding with $125 billion in securities, including $58 billion 3-year notes, $42 billion 10-year notes, and $25 billion 30-year bonds [5]

The market reaction suggests cautious optimism rather than euphoria - modest yield increases indicate relief but not celebration, while dollar weakness suggests concerns about economic data quality [0].

The analysis reveals several risk factors that warrant attention [0]:

1. Data integrity risk
   : The potential permanent loss of key economic indicators creates uncertainty for Fed policy and market pricing [2]
2. Policy uncertainty
   : Federal Reserve policymakers may be “flying blind at a critical period” without complete economic data [2]
3. Market pricing efficiency
   : Incomplete data could lead to mispricing of risk assets and Treasury securities

Decision-makers should closely monitor the following developments [0]:

1. Data release schedule
   : Watch for announcements from BLS, BEA, and other agencies about resuming data publications
2. Fed communications
   : Monitor Federal Reserve statements for how they address data gaps in their policy framework
3. Treasury auction results
   : Track demand and yields in upcoming Treasury auctions for market sentiment indicators
4. Economic proxy data
   : Watch private-sector data releases (ADP employment, ISM surveys) as alternatives to government data

The shutdown’s impact may extend beyond the immediate market reaction [0]:

• Potential revisions to historical data series once collection resumes
• Changes in how markets weight government vs. private-sector economic indicators
• Possible structural reforms to federal statistical agencies to prevent future data gaps

The Treasury market’s modest response to the government reopening reflects a complex balance between relief at ending the 43-day shutdown and significant concerns about data integrity [0][2]. The potential permanent loss of critical economic indicators like CPI and employment reports creates substantial uncertainty for Federal Reserve policy-making and market pricing [2][4].

The technical indicators [0] show the market is cautiously optimistic but not overly enthusiastic, with the dollar weakness suggesting underlying concerns about economic data quality that could affect policy decisions [3]. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ staffing constraints further complicate the timeline for data recovery [4].

Investors should be aware of the following concerns identified in the data [0]: the risk of incomplete economic data leading to market mispricing, the potential for Federal Reserve policymakers to operate with impaired information, and the structural implications for how markets will value economic indicators going forward.