Nebius (NBIS) Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis: Meta Partnership Drives Growth Amid Market Volatility

This analysis is based on the Reddit discussion about Nebius (NBIS) Q3 2025 earnings and future outlook, published on November 12, 2025, which highlighted the company’s impressive 300% revenue growth and new Meta partnership despite a significant stock pullback.

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) reported Q3 2025 earnings on November 11, 2025, demonstrating extraordinary growth metrics alongside a major strategic partnership with Meta. The company achieved

[0], though this fell short of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $155.1 million [3]. The most significant development was the announcement of a for AI infrastructure delivery [0][3], which builds upon the previously disclosed Microsoft deal valued at $17.4-$19.4 billion [0].

Despite these positive fundamentals, the market reaction was notably negative, with the stock declining approximately 7% in the immediate earnings aftermath [0][2]. This divergence between strong operational results and weak market performance reflects investor concerns about several key factors.

The Meta partnership represents a transformative catalyst, potentially adding $600 million in annualized revenue that could double current revenue levels [2]. Management projects ambitious growth to

, representing approximately 8x growth from current levels [0]. This growth trajectory appears supported by consistently sold-out capacity and expanding contracted capacity plans to 2.5 gigawatts by 2026 [0].

However, several concerning factors drove the negative market reaction:

1. Revenue Expectations Gap
   : The $146.1 million actual revenue missed analyst expectations by $9 million [3]
2. Dilution Risk
   : Announcement of a 25 million share at-the-market equity program raised immediate shareholder dilution concerns [0]
3. Profitability Timeline
   : Despite narrowing losses to $39.7 million from $100.4 million year-over-year [3], the company remains unprofitable with negative operating margins of -151.05% [0]

The company’s financial metrics reveal a complex picture. While the core infrastructure business shows improving unit economics with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding to nearly 19% in Q3 [0], massive capital expenditure increases from $2 billion to $5 billion in 2025 guidance [0] indicate aggressive scaling requirements.

Current valuation metrics suggest premium pricing: at $87.83 with a P/E ratio of 102.13 [0], NBIS trades at growth multiples that require flawless execution. All 4 covering analysts maintain Buy ratings with a consensus target of $101.00 (15.1% upside) [0], indicating institutional optimism despite near-term volatility.

Investors should be aware that several factors present significant risks:

1. Extreme Valuation Multiple
   : The P/E ratio of 102.13 [0] suggests very high growth expectations are already priced in, leaving little room for execution misses
2. Dilution Risk
   : The 25 million share ATM program could significantly impact existing shareholders’ ownership percentages [0]
3. Execution Complexity
   : Scaling from $146 million quarterly revenue to multi-billion dollar annual run rate within 18 months represents an extraordinarily ambitious operational challenge [0]

1. Customer Concentration
   : Heavy reliance on Microsoft and Meta deals creates significant concentration risk, with these two partnerships accounting for a substantial portion of projected revenue [0]
2. Supply Chain Constraints
   : Management has acknowledged power availability and GPU supply as potential growth bottlenecks [0]
3. Competitive Response
   : Major cloud providers (AWS, Azure, GCP) may respond aggressively to Nebius’s success with hyperscaler customers

1. Q4 Capacity Deployment
   : Management indicated Q4 will see “significantly higher incremental ARR” [0], potentially serving as a near-term catalyst
2. 2026 Guidance Clarification
   : Full-year 2026 revenue guidance expected next quarter could provide clarity on growth trajectory [0]
3. Strategic Positioning
   : Nebius is establishing itself as a key AI infrastructure provider with validated demand from major tech companies [0][3]

The Reddit discussion’s core question about whether to “buy the dip or hold long-term” reflects a genuine investment dilemma. Nebius presents a classic high-growth, high-risk scenario where extraordinary operational metrics coexist with significant execution challenges and market concerns.

: Exceptional 355% revenue growth, transformative $3 billion Meta partnership, sold-out capacity status, and massive market opportunity in AI infrastructure could justify current valuation if execution succeeds [0][2][3].

: Extreme valuation multiples, potential shareholder dilution, operational complexity in scaling capacity, and competitive pressures could lead to significant downside if growth targets are missed [0].

: Investors should focus on Q4 capacity deployment results, 2026 guidance next quarter, financing strategy execution, and the company’s ability to maintain margins while scaling aggressively. The company’s $4.8 billion cash position [2] provides runway, but the $5 billion CapEx guidance suggests rapid cash consumption that will require careful financial management [0].

The decision between buying the current dip or maintaining long-term positions ultimately depends on risk tolerance and confidence in management’s ability to execute on an extraordinarily ambitious growth plan in a competitive AI infrastructure market.