Apollo Economist Slok: Data Gaps Obscure Economic Reality as Immigration Drives Labor Slowdown

This analysis is based on the CNBC Television interview with Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, published on November 13, 2025 [Event Source]. Slok provided critical insights on current U.S. economic conditions, emphasizing significant data challenges while offering an optimistic labor market assessment.

The current economic environment is characterized by substantial information gaps due to missing government economic data, creating significant uncertainty for policymakers, investors, and businesses attempting to assess economic conditions accurately [Event Source]. Slok’s assessment that it may take another month before the real state of the economy becomes clear suggests these data gaps are substantial and will persist temporarily [Event Source]. This situation aligns with reports of government shutdown impacts on economic data releases [3], forcing economists to rely more heavily on private-sector indicators.

Private-sector data providers have become increasingly crucial in this environment. ADP’s National Employment Report shows private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in October 2025, with annual pay up 4.5% year-over-year [5]. This represents a recovery from September’s revised loss of 29,000 jobs. However, more recent ADP data indicates continued weakness, with private employers shedding an average of 11,250 jobs per week for the four weeks ending October 25, 2025 [4].

Slok’s attribution of slowing job growth to declining immigration is supported by broader research. Apollo’s own analysis suggests that if 3,000 people are deported daily, labor supply could decline by about 1 million in 2025 [2]. Combined with immigration restrictions, this significantly impacts job growth patterns. The Congressional Budget Office projects that declining immigration and aging demographics are reducing breakeven employment growth rates, potentially to as low as 52,000 jobs monthly by 2034 [6].

Despite the slowdown, alternative indicators suggest underlying labor market strength remains intact. The Indeed US Job Openings index, while declining, remains 1.9% above pre-pandemic baseline levels [4]. This indicates that demand for workers continues to exceed supply in many sectors, supporting Slok’s characterization of a “still-solid” labor market [Event Source].

The current information vacuum creates significant challenges for monetary policy decisions. Without reliable government statistics, the Federal Reserve must rely more heavily on private-sector indicators, which may have different methodologies and coverage. This could lead to policy uncertainty and potentially delayed or inappropriate policy responses.

Slok’s analysis reveals that immigration policy changes are having significant economic effects that may be misinterpreted as general economic weakness. This suggests that immigration restrictions could be a major factor in current employment trends, potentially warranting policy reconsideration if economic growth is a priority.

Asian markets showed positive performance on November 13, 2025, with Chinese indices up 0.67-2.15% [0], suggesting no immediate panic about U.S. economic conditions. No major negative economic indicators were found in recent market news [1], indicating that markets may be looking through the current data uncertainty.

• Data Reliability Concerns
  : The lack of government economic data creates significant uncertainty for economic assessment and policy decisions
• Market Volatility Risk
  : The information gap increases potential for market volatility as investors react to incomplete or conflicting data signals
• Policy Uncertainty
  : Monetary policy faces increased challenges due to data limitations, potentially leading to inappropriate policy responses

Companies face increased difficulty in strategic planning and investment decisions due to the lack of clear economic signals. This uncertainty may contribute to the “pause” in projects and investments noted by staffing industry analysts [4], creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of slower economic activity.

• Alternative Data Advantage
  : Organizations with access to robust alternative data sources may have competitive advantages in economic assessment
• Policy Adjustment Potential
  : If immigration restrictions are indeed driving labor market weakness, policy adjustments could provide significant economic stimulus
• Market Mispricing
  : Current uncertainty may create opportunities for investors who can better interpret alternative indicators

• Government economic data gaps are creating significant assessment challenges [Event Source]
• Alternative indicators from private sector are providing partial coverage but with limitations
• Full economic picture may not emerge for another month according to Slok [Event Source]

• Job growth slowdown appears linked to immigration decline rather than economic weakness [Event Source]
• Private sector employment shows modest recovery (42,000 jobs in October) [5]
• Job openings remain above pre-pandemic levels despite recent declines [4]

• Immigration restrictions and deportations are impacting labor supply significantly [2]
• Government shutdown effects may be contributing to data gaps [3]
• Monetary policy faces increased uncertainty due to data limitations

• Specific details about which government economic reports are missing or delayed
• Timeline for restoration of full government data reporting capabilities
• Precise measurement of current immigration decline magnitude and sector-specific impacts
• Accuracy and coverage limitations of private-sector economic indicators