NBIS Options Loss Analysis: Reddit YOLO Trade Amid Post-Earnings Volatility

This analysis is based on a Reddit post from November 13, 2025, where a user reported significant losses on NBIS (Nebius Group N.V.) options trading while maintaining bullish positions on longer-dated contracts [1].

The Reddit user’s options loss occurred immediately following NBIS’s Q3 2025 earnings release on November 11, 2025. Despite reporting fundamentally strong results, the stock experienced significant selling pressure, closing at $94.36 on November 12, representing a

from the previous session [0]. This post-earnings volatility directly impacted the value of November call options, resulting in the reported ~$7,000 loss.

• Revenue grew 355% year-over-year to $146 million (39% QoQ growth) [0]
• Annualized run rate reached $551 million [0]
• Major strategic wins: Microsoft ($17.4-19.4 billion) and Meta ($3 billion) contracts [0]
• Adjusted EBITDA margin for core business expanded to nearly 19% [0]

• Raised 2025 CapEx guidance substantially from ~$2 billion to ~$5 billion [0]
• Announced at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million shares [0]
• EPS missed expectations (-$0.55 vs. -$0.50 consensus) [0]
• Extremely high valuation multiples (P/E: 108.99x, P/B: 4.94x) [0]

The Reddit post illustrates several critical aspects of options trading on high-volatility AI infrastructure stocks:

1. Earnings Timing Risk:
   Options expiring around earnings dates carry significantly elevated risk due to potential large price swings
2. Volatility Decay:
   The stock’s decline from its 52-week high of $141.10 to current levels [0] demonstrates how quickly options can lose value during corrections
3. Position Management:
   The user’s decision to hold March calls while taking losses on November contracts reflects a common strategy of rolling exposure forward but also concentration risk

The Reddit post reflects a broader market narrative around AI infrastructure stocks:

• 100% BUY analyst consensus with $101.00 price target [0]
• Strong secular demand for AI computing capacity
• Major enterprise contracts validating the business model

• Technology sector underperformance (-0.81% on November 12) [0]
• High valuation sensitivity to interest rate changes
• Capital-intensive business model requiring significant financing

The timing of the options loss immediately post-earnings highlights how even fundamentally strong results can trigger significant price movements in high-multiple stocks. The market’s focus on capital expenditure increases and potential dilution overshadowed the impressive revenue growth.

NBIS represents the broader AI infrastructure investment theme where companies require massive capital expenditures to scale capacity. The raised CapEx guidance from $2 billion to $5 billion [0] reflects both opportunity and execution risk, creating a binary outcome scenario that options traders attempt to capture.

The Reddit “YOLO” approach to NBIS options reflects broader retail trading patterns in emerging technology sectors, where traders attempt to capture outsized returns from growth stories but face significant timing and volatility risks.

1. Valuation Compression Risk:
   At 108.99x P/E [0], NBIS is vulnerable to multiple compression if growth expectations are not met
2. Capital Execution Risk:
   The $5 billion CapEx program requires significant financing and operational execution
3. Dilution Risk:
   The 25 million share ATM program could impact existing shareholders [0]
4. Options-Specific Risks:
   Time decay, volatility crush, and liquidity concerns in NBIS options markets

1. Capacity Expansion Timeline:
   Monitor progress toward 2.5 gigawatt contracted capacity target by 2026 [0]
2. Financing Strategy Updates:
   Watch for asset-backed financing announcements and equity program utilization
3. Major Contract Execution:
   Track revenue recognition timeline from Microsoft and Meta deals
4. Competitive Positioning:
   Monitor CoreWeave and other AI infrastructure providers for market share dynamics

The Reddit incident highlights the importance of:

• Position sizing
  in volatile growth stocks
• Timing considerations
  around earnings announcements
• Risk management
  through defined-risk strategies rather than naked options exposure
• Diversification
  to reduce concentration risk in emerging technology themes

NBIS experienced significant post-earnings volatility despite strong Q3 2025 results, with the stock declining 7.69% to $94.36 on November 12 [0]. The company reported impressive 355% YoY revenue growth to $146 million and secured major enterprise contracts, but raised capital expenditure guidance substantially to $5 billion and announced potential equity dilution [0]. A Reddit user reported ~$7,000 losses on November call options while maintaining bullish March positions, illustrating the risks of high-volatility options trading on AI infrastructure stocks trading at elevated multiples (P/E: 108.99x) [0]. The stock remains up 209.28% year-to-date but has declined 30.34% over the past month [0], reflecting the extreme volatility characteristic of emerging AI infrastructure investments.