HIMS Stock Analysis: Government Shutdown End Impact and Market Outlook

This analysis examines the Reddit user’s question about potential HIMS rally following the U.S. government shutdown resolution on November 12, 2025 [1]. The user purchased HIMS at $47 and noted the stock’s decline to current levels around $39.02, reflecting broader market concerns about the company’s prospects [source: Reddit post].

The 43-day government shutdown concluded on November 12, 2025, when President Trump signed legislation after House approval (222-209 vote) [1]. This marked the longest shutdown in U.S. history, creating significant economic uncertainty that theoretically should benefit consumer discretionary and healthcare stocks upon resolution.

: HIMS trades at $39.02, down 1.84% on November 12, 2025, representing a 27.67% decline over the past month and 18.64% decline over 3 months [0]. Despite this recent weakness, the stock maintains a year-to-date gain of 54.84%, reflecting earlier strong performance [0].

: Over the past 30 trading days, HIMS fell from $57.00 to $39.02, a 31.54% decline with elevated volatility (5.43% daily standard deviation) [0]. The stock currently trades below key technical levels, including the 20-day moving average at $45.96.

: Major indices showed mixed reactions on November 12, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.50% while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ declined 0.24% and 0.67% respectively [0]. The healthcare sector posted modest gains of +0.33%, suggesting some positive sentiment in the relevant sector [0].

: The company’s recent Q3 2025 earnings revealed strong revenue growth ($599M, +49.2% YoY) with both revenue and EPS beating estimates by 3.3% and 20.4% respectively [2]. However, Q4 guidance came in below consensus expectations, triggering a 9.9% post-earnings decline [2].

HIMS trades at elevated multiples that suggest significant growth expectations are already priced in:

• P/E Ratio: 73.62x
• P/B Ratio: 15.20x
• EV/OCF: 28.70x [0]

These high valuations create vulnerability to multiple compression, particularly if growth rates decelerate or guidance disappointments continue.

While the Reddit user hopes for macro-driven rally from shutdown resolution, evidence suggests HIMS’s decline is primarily company-specific rather than macro-driven [2]. The Q4 guidance miss despite strong Q3 performance indicates fundamental concerns about sustainable growth rates that may not be resolved by broader economic stability.

Current analyst consensus remains HOLD with a $43.00 price target (10.2% upside), but recent actions show mixed sentiment with BTIG maintaining Buy while B of A Securities maintains Underperform [0]. This divergence reflects uncertainty about the company’s near-term trajectory.

: The combination of high multiples (73.62x P/E) and recent guidance concerns creates significant downside risk if growth expectations are not met [0][2].

: Q4 guidance below consensus raises questions about the company’s ability to maintain growth rates, particularly in a potentially challenging macro environment [2].

: The stock’s 5.43% daily standard deviation over the past month indicates elevated volatility that could persist given uncertainty about growth trajectory [0].

: The end of the 43-day shutdown should provide economic stability, restored federal paychecks, and regulatory clarity that could benefit consumer spending and healthcare utilization [1].

: Q3 revenue growth of 49.2% YoY demonstrates the underlying business strength, suggesting current weakness may be temporary [2].

: The current price near $39.02 with 52-week low at $19.15 provides a potential floor, while significant upside remains to the 52-week high of $72.98 [0].

The Reddit user’s hope for a HIMS rally following the government shutdown end faces both supportive and challenging factors. While the shutdown resolution removes economic uncertainty and the healthcare sector showed modest gains (+0.33%) on November 12, HIMS’s fundamental concerns appear more significant than macro factors [0][1].

The stock’s high valuation (73.62x P/E) combined with Q4 guidance below consensus creates substantial risk regardless of macro catalysts [0][2]. However, strong Q3 performance (49.2% revenue growth) and the removal of shutdown-related uncertainty provide some basis for optimism [2].

Current analyst sentiment remains mixed with HOLD consensus and $43.00 target, suggesting limited near-term upside potential from current levels [0]. The stock’s recent 31.54% decline over 30 days reflects these concerns more than shutdown-related pressures [0].

Monitoring post-shutdown consumer spending patterns, regulatory developments, and competitive dynamics will be crucial for assessing whether HIMS can overcome current challenges and deliver the rally the Reddit user anticipates.