In-Depth Investment Value Analysis of ASM International (ASMI)

Based on the data and analysis I have collected, here is a comprehensive investment research report for you:

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According to the latest market information, BofA Securities maintains a

on ASM International, despite the company’s recent downward revision of its 2025 growth outlook [1][2]. Morgan Stanley included ASM International in its list for the European semiconductor sector in December 2024 and raised its target price [3]. However, it should be noted that Jefferies downgraded the company’s rating to on January 13, 2025 [3], indicating market divergence regarding the company’s short-term valuation.

ASM International clearly stated at its September 2025 Investor Day that AI will drive robust growth in the semiconductor market for years to come, particularly in the advanced logic/foundry and DRAM markets [4]. This trend is highly aligned with the company’s core strengths in

and technologies. The company’s management said: “Recent industry announcements have further reinforced the expectation that AI will drive robust growth in the semiconductor market for years to come.”

The transition to 1.4nm GAA technology brings ASM an incremental addressable serviceable market (SAM) of

, based on a monthly wafer capacity of 100,000 units [4]. This technological transition will require more of ASM’s ALD and Epi equipment, as the GAA transistor architecture is more complex than FinFET and requires more deposition steps.

The company has secured new orders in the fields of epitaxy and ALD dipole, work function-related layers for DRAM HBM, and these orders are expected to ramp up gradually in the coming years [4]. As the demand for high bandwidth memory from AI chips continues to grow, the HBM market is expected to maintain strong momentum.

ASM is actively expanding in the advanced packaging market by leveraging its chemical and material expertise and deposition capabilities. The company has made new breakthroughs in ALD liners for Through-Silicon Via (TSV) applications [4]. Advanced packaging is crucial for heterogeneous integration and performance improvement.

The company has a presence in the fields of selective growth PECVD, vertical furnaces, and SiC epitaxy. As the penetration rate of silicon carbide in electric vehicles and industrial applications increases, this segment is expected to become a new growth engine [5].

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Area of Strength	Market Position	2027 Target
ALD Technology	Global Leader	Maintain >55% market share
Si Epitaxy Technology	Leading Supplier	Strive for >30% market share
Advanced Logic/Foundry	Core Strength Area	Continue to expand market share

According to data from TechInsights, ASM holds a

in the single-wafer ALD market and continues to innovate in epitaxy (Epi) technologies [5]. The company has a strong patent portfolio and sustained R&D investment, which supports its technological leadership.

• Gross Margin
  : Reached
  51.9%
  in Q3 2025, up 2.5 percentage points from 49.4% in the same period of 2024 [6]
• Operating Margin
  : Was
  30.3%
  in Q3 2025, up 2.7 percentage points year-over-year [6]
• Adjusted Operating Margin
  : Was
  30.9%
  in Q3 2025, up 2.7 percentage points year-over-year [6]

• Q3 2025 revenue grew
  8% year-over-year at constant exchange rates
  and 3% year-over-year at reported rates [6]
• The full-year 2025 revenue growth expectation is close to
  10% at constant exchange rates
  [6]
• Q4 2025 revenue reached
  €698 million
  , exceeding the company’s guidance range (€630-660 million) and market expectations (€656 million) [7]

• Q4 2025 bookings reached approximately
  €800 million
  , significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations of €669 million [7]
• Quarterly orders grew sequentially from €637 million in Q3 2025 to €800 million in Q4 [7]

The company has set a 2030 revenue target of

, which implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of at least in the coming years [4]. The path to achieving this target includes:

1. ALD Business
   : Maintain leadership in the logic/foundry segment and expand into the memory segment
2. Epitaxy Business
   : Increase market share in silicon epitaxy, targeting to rise from the current 16% to
   >30%
   by 2027 [5]
3. Spare Parts and Services Business
   : Healthy growth, providing stable recurring revenue
4. Selective Expansion
   : Niche markets such as PECVD, vertical furnaces, and SiC epitaxy

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From a valuation perspective, ASM International is currently trading at a high multiple, reflecting market expectations for the company’s long-term growth prospects. The main risk factors include:

• Revenue from the Chinese market is expected to decline
  by double digits year-over-year
  in 2026 [6]
• Weak demand in the power/analog/silicon wafer market, with uncertain recovery timing [6]
• Growth may slow in early 2026 [6]

• Launch of
  1.4nm pilot line investment
  in the second half of 2026 [6]
• Increased investment in the DRAM segment [6]
• Sustained expansion of demand for AI chips [4]

Supporting Factor	Description
Technological Barriers	Leading ALD/epitaxy technologies, strong patent portfolio
Growth Tracks	AI, HBM, and advanced packaging are all high-growth segments
Profitability	Gross margin >50%, operating margin >30%, leading in the industry
Market Share	Stable leadership in ALD, continuous increase in epitaxy market share
Long-Term Guidance	2030 revenue target of €5.7B+, CAGR of 12%+

• Cyclical fluctuations in the semiconductor industry
• Customer concentration risk
• Intensified competition (from ASML, Lam Research, etc.)
• Geopolitical risks (Chinese market)

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ASM International’s target price hikes are supported by solid growth logic, including AI-driven semiconductor demand, serviceable market expansion driven by 1.4nm technology, technological advantages in the DRAM HBM segment, and new opportunities in the advanced packaging market. The company’s in ALD and epitaxy technologies is its core competitive advantage supporting its high valuation.

From a fundamental perspective, the company’s 51.9% gross margin and 30.3% operating margin are at an in the semiconductor equipment industry, demonstrating strong pricing power and cost control capabilities. The beat in both Q4 bookings and revenue indicates improving demand. However, Jefferies’ rating downgrade reflects market regarding the current valuation level.

Investors should focus on the following indicators:

1. Quarterly Order Changes
   : Judge the sustainability of demand recovery
2. Gross Margin Trend
   : Monitor pricing power and cost pressures
3. Revenue Share from the Chinese Market
   : Track geopolitical impacts
4. 1.4nm Technology Adoption Progress
   : Assess the speed of monetizing technological advantages
5. HBM Order Wins
   : Measure growth potential in the memory segment

As a

in the semiconductor equipment sector, ASM International has competitive advantages that support its current valuation. Its deep accumulation in ALD and epitaxy technologies, high alignment with AI chip trends, and clear long-term growth path provide fundamental support for its valuation. However, investors need to pay attention to uncertainties such as cyclical fluctuations in the semiconductor industry, intensified competition, and geopolitical risks.

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[1] Finimize - “ASM International Revises Outlook As Chip Demand Softens” (https://finimize.com/content/asm-international-revises-outlook-as-chip-demand-softens)

[2] Marketscreener - “ASM International: Target Price Consensus and Analysts” (https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ASM-INTERNATIONAL-39428281/consensus/)

[3] Zonebourse - Analyst recommendations and price target changes (https://www.zonebourse.com/)

[4] ASM International - “ASM reports third quarter 2025 results” (https://www.asm.com/press-releases/3175789)

[5] ASM Investor Presentation - Q2 2025 (https://www.asm.com/downloads/presentations-other/2025-q2-investor-presentation)

[6] ASM Press Release Q3 2025 - Financial Data (https://www.asm.com/media/3ukhabzj/20251028-asm-reports-q3-2025-results.pdf)

[7] Investing.com - “ASM International reports Q4 bookings and revenue above expectations” (https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/asm-international-reports-q4-bookings-and-revenue-above-expectations-4453421)

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The chart above shows ASM International’s:

• Profitability trends (gross margin, operating margin)
• Comparison of orders and revenue
• Core growth drivers (AI, High Bandwidth Memory, advanced packaging, etc.)
• Serviceable Market (SAM) growth expectations

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