In-Depth Analysis of the Changing Trend of Zhifei Biological (SZ300122)'s HPV Vaccine Market Share

Based on collected data and market information, I will provide you with a detailed analysis report on the changing trend of Zhifei Biological (SZ300122)'s HPV vaccine market share.

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As the exclusive distributor of Merck’s HPV vaccines in China, Zhifei Biological’s HPV vaccine business has experienced a dramatic shift from rapid growth to sharp contraction. In 2017, Zhifei Biological obtained the distribution rights for Merck’s 4-valent HPV vaccine, and then secured the exclusive distribution rights for Merck’s 9-valent HPV vaccine in 2018. This partnership allowed the company to catch the “express train” of the rapid expansion of HPV vaccines in China [1].

Driven by its distribution business, Zhifei Biological’s performance achieved explosive growth. Its operating revenue increased from RMB 10.59 billion in 2019 to RMB 52.918 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of over 80%; its net profit peaked at RMB 10.209 billion in 2021, making it a star enterprise in the domestic vaccine industry [2]. However, this growth was highly dependent on the distribution business, with revenue from distributed products accounting for over 90% of total revenue for a long time, and the proportion still reached as high as 94.61% in 2024 [3].

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Based on batch release data and industry statistics, the market share changes of Merck’s HPV vaccines distributed by Zhifei Biological in the Chinese market are as follows [4][5]:

Year	Batch Volume of Zhifei Biological (10,000 doses)	Market Share (%)	YoY Change (%)
2019	1,018	83.5	-
2020	1,223	74.7	-10.5
2021	1,650	59.6	-20.2
2022	1,800	46.4	-22.1
2023	1,600	38.6	-16.8
2024	1,360	32.5	-15.8
H1 2025	424	18.1	-44.3

As can be clearly seen from the above chart, Zhifei Biological’s HPV vaccine market share has continuously declined from 83.5% in 2019 to 18.1% in 2025, with a cumulative drop of over 65 percentage points. This downward trend shows a clear acceleration characteristic.

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The Chinese HPV vaccine market has gradually evolved from a Merck-dominated landscape to a multi-player competitive pattern [6]:

The market was dominated by Merck (4-valent, 9-valent) and GSK (2-valent), with Zhifei Biological occupying approximately 85% of the market share by virtue of its exclusive distribution status.

Wantai Biological’s 2-valent HPV vaccine (Xinkening) was launched in 2020, quickly seizing market share with its price advantage and government procurement. Watson Biological’s 2-valent HPV vaccine was also approved for marketing in 2022, and the effect of domestic substitution began to emerge.

Wantai Biological’s 9-valent HPV vaccine (Xinkening 9) was approved for marketing in June 2025, priced at only RMB 499 per dose, which is less than 40% of the imported Merck 9-valent HPV vaccine (approximately RMB 1,318 per dose), delivering a fatal blow to Zhifei Biological [7].

Based on batch release data, the performance of major companies in 2024 and H1 2025 shows a stark contrast [8]:

• Zhifei Biological (4-valent HPV vaccine):
  Batch volume in 2024 decreased by 95.49% YoY, dropping to 0 doses in H1 2025, essentially exiting the market
• Zhifei Biological (9-valent HPV vaccine):
  Batch volume in 2024 decreased by 14.8% YoY, and dropped by 76.8% YoY in H1 2025
• Wantai Biological:
  Market share rose from 15% in 2020 to 51.2% in 2025, becoming the new market leader
• Watson Biological:
  Market share rose from 12.8% in 2022 to 29.9% in 2025

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The launch of domestic HPV vaccines has brought multiple impacts to Zhifei Biological [9]:

Wantai Biological’s 9-valent HPV vaccine is priced at RMB 499 per dose, only 37.9% of the imported product, with a significant price advantage.

Domestic vaccines actively participate in government procurement and free vaccination programs. Starting from November 2025, China launched a free 2-valent HPV vaccination program for girls aged 13 and above, further squeezing the space of the self-paid market.

The expectation that domestic 9-valent HPV vaccines from companies such as Wantai Biological and Watson Biological are in Phase III clinical trials has delayed the vaccination decisions of some consumers.

The HPV vaccination coverage rate in China increased from less than 1% in 2018 to approximately 28% in 2025. The vaccination rate in core cities has gradually saturated, and the market has entered the stage of stock competition [10]. At the same time, the decline in public willingness to be vaccinated and the intensification of vaccine hesitancy have also become important factors.

In early 2023, Zhifei Biological renewed its agreement with Merck, stipulating that the cumulative procurement amount from 2024 to 2026 would exceed RMB 100 billion, with the basic procurement amounts for 2024 and 2025 reaching RMB 32.626 billion and RMB 26.033 billion respectively [11]. This aggressive procurement decision led to a serious inventory backlog amid the sharp contraction of market demand:

• Inventory exceeded RMB 10 billion for the first time in the 2023 semi-annual report, accounting for 23.77% of total assets
• Inventory reached RMB 22.2 billion at the end of 2024, a YoY increase of 147.25%
• Inventory still reached as high as RMB 20.246 billion by the end of Q3 2025, accounting for over 40% of total assets

In response to market changes, Merck announced the suspension of HPV vaccine supply to China in February 2025, a decision that directly led to a plummet in Zhifei Biological’s batch volume in H1 2025 [12].

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Zhifei Biological’s financial performance is highly correlated with the decline of its HPV vaccine market share [13]:

Indicator	2021 Peak	2024	2025 (Estimated)	Change Range
Operating Revenue (RMB 100 million)	306.5	260.7	49.2	-84%
Net Profit (RMB 100 million)	102.1	20.2	-120.0	From Profit to Loss
Proportion of Distribution Business (%)	90	93	89	Relatively Stable

On January 12, 2026, Zhifei Biological released its 2025 annual performance forecast, expecting a full-year loss of RMB 10.698 billion to RMB 13.726 billion, a YoY decrease of 630%-780% [14]. This is the company’s first annual loss since listing, with the loss amount exceeding RMB 10 billion. The main reasons include:

• Sales of major products fell short of expectations
• Provision for inventory impairment
• Credit impairment loss on accounts receivable

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With the launch of Wantai Biological’s 9-valent HPV vaccine and the upcoming approval of more domestic HPV vaccines (the 9-valent HPV vaccines of companies such as Kangle Weishi, Watson Biological, and Rec-Bio are in Phase III clinical trials), the Chinese HPV vaccine market will enter a new stage dominated by domestic products [15].

Facing difficulties, Zhifei Biological is actively seeking transformation:

• Optimize Cooperation with Merck:
  Adjust procurement scale to reduce upstream pressure
• Increase R&D Investment:
  R&D expenses reached RMB 971 million in 2024, and have already reached RMB 669 million in the first three quarters of 2025
• Business Diversification:
  In March 2025, it increased capital to take control of Chen’an Biological, entering the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market
• Inventory Reduction Strategy:
  Launched “buy two doses, get one free” activities in multiple regions to accelerate inventory turnover

• Inventory Expiration Risk:
  Approximately RMB 20 billion worth of inventory is at risk of expiration, with a large number of products expiring in 2026
• Capital Chain Pressure:
  As of the end of Q3 2025, short-term borrowings reached as high as RMB 10.318 billion, while monetary funds were only RMB 2.498 billion
• Continuous Loss Risk:
  The recovery of market demand is still uncertain, and performance pressure may continue

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The changing trend of Zhifei Biological’s HPV vaccine market share reflects the fundamental transformation of the Chinese HPV vaccine market landscape. From approximately 85% in 2019 to approximately 18% in 2025, Zhifei Biological lost about 67 percentage points of market share in just six years. The speed and magnitude of this change are extremely rare in the pharmaceutical industry.

The core driving factors include:

(especially the price advantage of Wantai Biological’s 9-valent vaccine), , , and .

Looking forward, the core challenges facing Zhifei Biological are how to find its position in the new pattern dominated by domestic HPV vaccines, and how to digest the inventory pressure of up to RMB 20 billion. The company is actively promoting business transformation, but the trend of performance pressure may be difficult to reverse in the short term.

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[1] Caifuhao - Vaccine Giant Zhifei Biological Faces Tough Year-End

[2] Beijing Business Daily - Zhifei Biological Burdened by Inventory

[3] Sina Finance - Vaccine Giant Expects Loss of Over RMB 10 Billion

[4] Caiwen News - Zhifei Biological Expects Loss of RMB 10 Billion

[5] Caifuhao - Zhifei Biological was Harmed by Its Own Ambition

[6] Eastmoney PDF - Bright Prospects for HPV Vaccine Market

[7] Sina Finance - The Darkest Hour for Zhifei Biological, the “King of Vaccines”

[8] OFweek - Vaccine Giant Expects Loss of Over RMB 10 Billion

[9] Caifuhao - Zhifei Biological was Harmed by Its Own Ambition

[10] Sina Finance - Expected Loss of RMB 10.7-13.7 Billion in 2025

[11] Caiwen News - Zhifei Biological Expects Loss of RMB 10 Billion

[12] Shizhi Fengyun - Expected Loss of RMB 10.7-13.7 Billion in 2025

[13] Sina Finance - Vaccine Giant Expects Loss of Over RMB 10 Billion

[14] Sina Finance - Expected Loss of RMB 10.7-13.7 Billion in 2025

[15] Caiwen News - Zhifei Biological Expects Loss of RMB 10 Billion