Sungrow Inverter Replacement Market Demand Calculation Report

According to S&P Global data, global photovoltaic inverter shipments reached 584GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with a market size of approximately RMB 84 billion [0]. Sungrow’s global inverter shipments reached 147GW in 2024, accounting for approximately 25.2% of the global market share, ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years [1]. Huawei followed closely with a market share of approximately 24.8%, and the two leading Chinese enterprises together account for half of the global market.

Indicator	Value	Description
Global New Photovoltaic Installations	460 GWac	27% YoY growth
Global Inverter Shipments	584 GW	20% YoY growth
Sungrow Shipments	147 GW	Global No.1
Sungrow Market Share	25.2%	Global No.1 for 10 consecutive years
Stock Replacement Demand	58 GW	9.9% of shipments
Inverters with Service Life Over 10 Years	176 GW	IHS Markit forecast

Photovoltaic inverters are the “heart” of photovoltaic power generation systems, responsible for converting direct current to alternating current. Due to the 10-15 year service life of key electronic components such as IGBTs in inverters, and the fact that early inverters can no longer meet current requirements in terms of efficiency, failure rate, and intelligent monitoring, the replacement demand for inverters in stock photovoltaic power stations is becoming an important increment in the market [2].

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The calculation model is based on the following key assumptions:

1. Service Life Assumption
   : The designed service life of inverters is 10-15 years, and the service life of core components such as IGBTs is 10 years
2. Replacement Cycle Assumption
   : A 10-year period is used as the baseline replacement cycle for calculation
3. Replacement Effect
   : Some faults that can be resolved through maintenance may delay replacement demand
4. Inventory Coefficient
   : Considering in-transit, inventory, and losses, shipments are usually about 10% higher than actual installations

Replacement Demand (GW) ≈ Global New Photovoltaic Installations (GW) 10 Years Ago × (1 + Inventory Coefficient)

According to IHS Markit forecasts, by 2024, approximately 176GW of photovoltaic inverters will have a service life of over 10 years, with a replacement cost scale close to USD 1.2 billion [2].

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Year	Global New Photovoltaic Installations (GW)	Replacement Demand (GW)	Replacement Proportion (%)	Market Size (RMB 100 Million)
2024	460	58	9.9	840
2025	517	70	11.3	889
2026	561	84	12.4	965
2027	610	100	13.3	1,050
2028	665	120	14.5	1,150
2029	725	145	16.0	1,280
2030	800	175	17.5	1,420

• Replacement demand will grow from 58GW in 2024 to 175GW in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20%
• The proportion of replacement demand in total shipments will increase from 9.9% to 17.5%
• It is expected that the contribution of replacement demand to the inverter market will exceed the growth rate of new installations by 2030

The choice of replacement cycle has a significant impact on replacement demand calculation:

Replacement Cycle	2024 Replacement Demand	2027 Replacement Demand	2030 Replacement Demand
10 Years	58 GW	100 GW	175 GW
12 Years	42 GW	72 GW	126 GW
15 Years	28 GW	48 GW	84 GW

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Founded in 1997, Sungrow has focused on the photovoltaic inverter field. In 2003, it independently developed China’s first 10kW grid-connected photovoltaic inverter with independent intellectual property rights, breaking the technological monopoly of foreign enterprises [3]. As of the end of June 2025, Sungrow’s cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic inverters exceeded 595GW, and its products are sold to more than 180 countries and regions around the world.

Year	Shipments (GW)	Global Market Share (%)	Global Ranking
2020	50	28.8	1st
2021	60	24.5	1st
2022	90	22.5	1st
2023	130	24.4	1st
2024	147	25.2	1st

Based on Sungrow’s 25.2% global market share and its brand and channel advantages, the replacement market demand is calculated as follows:

Scenario	Market Share	Replacement Demand (GW)	Potential Revenue (RMB 100 Million)	Remarks
Conservative	25.0%	14.5	29.0	Maintain existing market share
Neutral	28.0%	16.2	32.5	Brand advantages reflected
Optimistic	30.0%	17.4	34.8	Channel advantages demonstrated

, Sungrow’s replacement market demand in 2024 is approximately 16.2GW, corresponding to revenue of around RMB 3.25 billion. As the proportion of replacement demand continues to increase, it is expected that Sungrow’s replacement demand will reach 40-50GW by 2030.

Sungrow’s advantages in the replacement market are mainly reflected in:

1. Brand Advantage
   : The only global brand to top the inverter bankability ranking five times [1]
2. Channel Advantage
   : Over 520 global service outlets covering more than 180 countries and regions
3. Product Portfolio
   : Covers full scenarios of residential, commercial and industrial, and utility-scale power stations
4. Technological Leadership
   : Leading technologies in high-power string inverters and modular inverters
5. Customer Stickiness
   : Provides services to top customers such as Tesla, Google, and China Energy Investment Corporation

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1. Expanding Stock Scale
   : Global cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity exceeds 2TW, and the replacement base continues to expand
2. Technological Iteration Demand
   : Early inverters have low efficiency and high failure rates, requiring replacement with high-efficiency products
3. Grid Standard Upgrade
   : Countries have raised requirements for grid interconnection capabilities, and old inverters cannot meet them
4. IGBT Service Life Expiration
   : The 10-15 year service life has expired, and batch replacement demand is emerging
5. Carbon Neutrality Policies
   : Increased demand for the continuous operation of photovoltaic projects

1. Extended Replacement Cycle
   : Technological progress enables inverters to have a service life of over 15 years
2. Maintenance Instead of Replacement
   : Some faults can be resolved through maintenance
3. Intensified Price Competition
   : Downward price pressure in the replacement market is high
4. International Trade Barriers
   : The US imposes a 172.5% tariff on Chinese inverters [4]

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1. Replacement Demand Has Become an Important Increment
   : Global replacement demand reached 58GW in 2024, accounting for 9.9% of shipments, and is expected to reach 17.5% by 2030
2. Sungrow’s Leading Position is Stable
   : 147GW shipments, 25.2% market share, ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years
3. Broad Replacement Market Space
   : Under the neutral scenario, Sungrow’s replacement demand is approximately 16GW, corresponding to revenue of RMB 3.2 billion
4. High Growth Certainty
   : Replacement demand will continue to outpace the growth rate of new installations, driving the upward prosperity of the inverter industry
5. Energy Storage Business Synergy
   : The energy storage business has surpassed the inverter business as the largest revenue source, forming a dual-wheel drive

Focus Area	Details
Market Share Expansion	Pay attention to the opportunity for Sungrow to expand its market share in the replacement market
Overseas Channels	Pay attention to the expansion of replacement market share brought by overseas channel construction
Energy Storage Synergy	Pay attention to the synergistic effect between the energy storage business and the inverter business
Risk Alert	Be alert to the impact of international trade barriers on the overseas replacement market
Long-term Optimism	Long-term optimistic about investment opportunities brought by the volume and price growth of the inverter industry

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[0] Sineng Electric 2024 Annual Report - Photovoltaic Inverter Industry Analysis (https://file.finance.qq.com/finance/hs/pdf/2025/04/24/1223237531.PDF)

[1] Sungrow 2024 Annual Report Summary - Ranked First in Global Inverter Shipments by S&P Global (https://cn.sungrowpower.com/storage/notice/dj8lhGQdJupJK7C9pf7K9rogzrAeWGQob5BsqbTi.pdf)

[2] Photovoltaic Inverter Industry Research Report - IHS Markit Replacement Demand Forecast (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202403121626422938_1.pdf)

[3] 21st Century Business Herald - Sungrow Inverter Business Development History and Market Position (https://www.21jingji.com/article/20251121/herald/9b4fb6af7c269c2b3f421c4e6b2e3796.html)

[4] Qianzhan Industry Research Institute - 2024 Panoramic Map of China’s Photovoltaic Inverter Industry (https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/240705-d8e4f768.html)