Analysis of the Turnover Rate Inflection Point After Haidilao's Founder Returns

Based on the collected data and research materials, I now provide you with an in-depth analysis report on the turnover rate inflection point after Haidilao’s founder returns.

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According to the latest data, Haidilao’s turnover rate

, rebounding from 3.8 turns per day in the first half of the year to over 4.0 turns per day. Founder Zhang Yong reassumed the position of CEO on January 13, 2026, which is expected to further accelerate this improvement trend.

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Time Period	Turnover Rate (Turns/Day)	YoY Change	Remarks
2021	~3.0	Lowest Point	COVID-19 + aggressive expansion mistakes
2022	~3.5	In Recovery	Yang Lijuan launched the “Woodpecker Program”
2023	~3.8	Sustained Recovery	Return to profitability
2024H1	4.2	Period High	Best performance during Yang Lijuan’s tenure
Full Year 2024	4.1	Slight Pullback	Growth slowdown
2025H1	3.8	-9.5%	Decline during Gou Yiqun’s tenure
2025Q3	4.0+	Rebound	Inflection point emerged
2025Q4(E)	~4.1	Continued Improvement	Trend expected to continue

: [0][1][2][3]

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• Intensified market competition
  : 165,000 new hot pot restaurants opened in 2025, while 192,000 closed, representing a net decrease of 27,000 [4]
• Changing consumer demand
  : Customers are more sensitive to average spending per customer, and the frequency of hot pot consumption has declined
• Exposed management issues
  : The “urination incident” and “diaper incident” in 2025 revealed management loopholes
• Same-store sales decreased by 9.7%
  , with customer traffic dropping by approximately 5 million [1]

• Consumer scenario innovation
  : Launched new store formats including campus stores, corporate stores, and banquet stores
• Product upgrade
  : Fresh-cut products are well-received; average daily consumption of fresh beef exceeded 35 tons during the National Day holiday, doubling month-on-month [5]
• National Day holiday effect
  : Served over 1.8 million customers on Mid-Autumn Festival (October 6), representing a 5% YoY increase [5]
• Maximum turnover exceeded 13 turns
  : The West Lake, Hangzhou store served over 2,800 customers in a single day [5]

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• Time
  : On January 13, 2026, Zhang Yong replaced Gou Yiqun to reassume the position of CEO
• Board renewal
  : Introduced 4 young female executive directors (average age 39)
• Market reaction
  : The stock price surged 9.15% on the day, hitting a new high since May last year [1][2]

1. Focus on the “Red Pomegranate Plan”
   : Accelerate the implementation of the multi-brand incubation strategy
2. Optimize management structure
   : Promote intelligence and automation of management processes
3. Enhance execution efficiency
   : The founder’s presence improves the certainty of decision implementation
4. Explore innovative businesses
   : Launched the first food stall-style hot pot store in December 2025, with locations in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Wuhan, and other cities

• Zhu Danpeng, Vice President of Guangdong Food Safety Promotion Association
  : “Zhang Yong’s return is very timely and necessary” [3]
• Bai Wenxi, Vice Chairman of the Enterprise Capital Alliance
  : Zhang Yong requires no adaptation period and has the highest authority, and will accelerate the implementation of the “Red Pomegranate Plan” [3]

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Indicator	Performance	Trend
Turnover Rate	3.8→4.0+	Rebound
National Day Customer Traffic	YoY +5%	Improvement
Average Spending Per Customer	RMB97.4→RMB97.9	Stable
New Store Expansion	+20 stores in sinking markets	Acceleration

Risk Factor	Description
Industry Competition	192,000 hot pot restaurants closed, and industry consolidation continues
Consumer Environment	Household consumption power is still recovering
Contribution from New Brands	The revenue share of the “Red Pomegranate Plan” is only 2.9%, making it difficult to become a major contributor in the short term
Cost Pressure	Labor and raw material costs are still rising

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• The turnover rate is expected to continue rebounding to 4.1-4.2 turns per day
• The consumption momentum from the National Day holiday is expected to continue into the Spring Festival peak season
• The effects of strategic adjustments following Zhang Yong’s return will gradually emerge

• The core hot pot business is expected to return to a steady growth trajectory
• The sub-brand matrix under the “Red Pomegranate Plan” will contribute incremental revenue
• The franchise model will accelerate store expansion, with an expected net increase of approximately 65 stores per year

• Guosen Securities: Granted 16-18x PE for 2025, target market capitalization of HK$87.8-98.7 billion [6]
• Current market capitalization is approximately HK$87.7 billion, approaching the lower end of the range

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1. Data perspective
   : The turnover rate rebounded to 4.0+ in 2025Q3 (from 3.8 in H1), with strong performance during the National Day holiday
2. Management adjustment
   : The return of founder Zhang Yong is expected to enhance strategic execution
3. Catalysts
   : Spring Festival consumption peak, consumption recovery policy support

: Intensifying industry competition, slower-than-expected new brand incubation progress, and macroeconomic fluctuations affecting consumer demand.

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[0] RCCaijing - “Zhang Yong Supervises in Person, Haidilao Replaces a Group of Directors” (https://m.rccaijing.com/news-7417723880120972960.html)

[1] Wall Street CN - “Haidilao Under Pressure, Zhang Yong Leads a ‘Female Team’ Back to the Frontline” (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763332)

[2] Sina Finance - “Three CEO Changes in Four Years, Zhang Yong Takes the Helm: Haidilao to Launch Food Stall-Style Stores in 2026” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-15/doc-inhhkrvv6367134.shtml)

[3] Yiou.com - “Haidilao’s Zhang Yong: Why ‘Put on the Battle Robe Again’? In the New Cycle of Catering, Founders Are Returning to the Frontline Collectively” (https://www.iyiou.com/news/202601171119813)

[4] Futu News - “Founder Zhang Yong ‘Re-Takes’ the Helm of HK$87 Billion Haidilao” (https://news.futunn.com/post/67553713)

[5] Sina Finance - “Haidilao: Served Over 1.8 Million Customers During Mid-Autumn Festival, Up ~5% YoY” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-10-08/doc-inftetxh3107303.shtml)

[6] Guosen Securities - “In-Depth Report on Haidilao (6862.HK)” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202502041642773705_1.pdf)

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Chart Description: Haidilao’s turnover rate gradually recovered from the lowest point of ~3.0 turns per day in 2021 to 4.2 turns per day in 2024H1, then declined to 3.8 turns per day in 2025H1, and rebounded to 4.0+ turns per day in 2025Q3, indicating an initial inflection point.