Analysis of Tanaka Precision Machinery (300461) as a Strong Stock: Risks and Opportunities Driven by Explosive Earnings Growth and New Energy Layout

Tanaka Precision Machinery (300461) performed strongly on January 19, 2026, with its share price surging 11.30% and entering the strong stock pool. Today’s trading volume reached 15.81 million shares, 5.4 times the average daily trading volume, showing a typical volume breakout trend [0]. The company’s current market price is RMB 22.75, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 3.57 billion, driven by both the better-than-expected third-quarter financial report and its new energy strategic layout.

The 2025 Q3 financial report shows that the company achieved a net profit attributable to parent shareholders of RMB 23.3368 million, a year-on-year increase of 265.0%; non-recurring net profit was RMB 23.0749 million, a year-on-year surge of 252.17% [1][2]. The cumulative net profit attributable to parent shareholders in the first three quarters was RMB 4.7212 million, a year-on-year increase of 113.87%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability. Although revenue decreased by 37.13% year-on-year, the explosive growth in net profit reflects the company’s improved cost control and operational efficiency.

In December 2025, the company announced that it increased its stake in Ruisheng New Energy to 38.32% by acquiring 14.51% of Ruisheng New Energy’s equity for RMB 16.59 million [3][4]. This strategic layout aligns with the current market’s high attention to the new energy track, creates a new growth pole for the company, and conforms to the development direction of the national “Dual Carbon” strategy.

The company responded to the development of lidar equipment adaptation and core component equipment for intelligent driving on the Hudongyi platform [5]. As an upstream equipment supplier in the intelligent driving industry chain, the company benefits from the market expectations of the rapid development of the autonomous driving industry and has a certain thematic popularity.

The company’s 29.6945 million restricted shares (accounting for 18.91% of the total share capital) were unlocked on December 19, 2025 [6]. After the release of the selling pressure risk from restricted shares, the exhaustion of negative factors combined with positive earnings has formed a catalytic window for stock price increases.

Time Horizon	Price Change	Evaluation
Today	+11.30%	Strong Breakout
5-Day	+15.02%	Strong Rebound
1-Month	+18.00%	Uptrend
3-Month	+29.19%	Mid-term Uptrend

The current stock price is in a mid-term uptrend channel, and the technical system issued a buy signal on January 8 [7]. Today’s trading volume surged to 15.81 million shares, 5.4 times the average daily trading volume of 2.95 million shares, which is a typical volume breakout trend, indicating that major funds have entered the market on a large scale or market sentiment is extremely bullish.

Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
KDJ	K=78.6, D=72.3, J=91.0	Overbought Zone, Beware of Pullback
RSI (14)	Overbought Risk Zone	Short-term Overheating
Beta	0.68	Volatility Lower than the Market

The J value of KDJ reached 91, and RSI is also in the overbought risk zone, indicating that short-term technical indicators are overheated and a pullback is needed. It is worth noting that the stock’s Beta value is only 0.68, with volatility lower than the Shenzhen Component Index, making it relatively stable compared to the broader market [7].

The resistance level is RMB 23.99, the next target level is RMB 24.79, and the 52-week high is RMB 26.65; the important support level is RMB 19.99 [7]. Investors need to pay attention to the pressure test around RMB 23.99.

The company’s Q3 net profit attributable to parent shareholders was RMB 23.3368 million, a year-on-year surge of 265%, and non-recurring net profit was RMB 23.0749 million, a year-on-year increase of 252.17%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [2]. The gross profit margin was 29.9%, a decrease of 9.11 percentage points compared to the same period last year, reflecting increased cost-side pressure.

The company’s debt ratio is 33.9%, which is at a low level, and debt risk is controllable; the current ratio is 1.70, indicating good short-term solvency; however, the quick ratio is slightly low at 0.91, and ROE is still negative (-22.12%), indicating that the company has not completely emerged from losses [0][8].

Valuation Indicator	Value	Evaluation
P/E (TTM)	-31.13	Loss-making, No Positive Valuation
P/B	6.72	Relatively High
P/S	20.02	Extremely High

The DCF valuation model shows that the reasonable value is only RMB 0.58 in the conservative scenario and RMB 0.89 in the neutral scenario, which is a huge deviation from the current price of RMB 22.75 [8]. However, it should be noted that this model is based on the average performance of the past 5 years (revenue CAGR -11.2%) and does not fully reflect the earnings explosion in Q3 2025, so this valuation conclusion should be viewed with caution.

: The current P/S ratio reaches 20x, and the DCF model shows that the stock price is significantly overvalued and decoupled from fundamentals. Although Q3 performance increased significantly, there is a large deviation between the valuation level and actual financial performance [8].

: Q3 revenue decreased by 37.13% year-on-year, and the continuous revenue decline reflects certain pressure on the main business [2].

: The company is still in a loss-making state (negative EPS), and whether Q3 profitability can be sustained remains to be seen. The gap between non-recurring net profit and net profit attributable to parent shareholders is small, with investment income contributing approximately RMB 21.607 million, so attention needs to be paid to the real profitability of the main business.

: Both KDJ and RSI indicate short-term overheating, and technical indicators suggest a pullback is needed [7].

: The system assesses that there is aggressive accounting treatment, so the quality of the financial report needs to be evaluated carefully.

According to public data, on January 16, main funds had a net purchase of RMB 1.4888 million, accounting for 1.89%; hot money had a net inflow of RMB 3.3668 million, accounting for 4.27%; retail funds had a net inflow of RMB 1.878 million, accounting for 2.38% [1]. On January 15, main funds had a net outflow of RMB 2.9965 million, showing frequent capital inflows and outflows [2]. Multiple types of funds have participated, but their sustainability remains to be verified.

Tanaka Precision Machinery’s surge today is mainly driven by three factors: better-than-expected earnings (265% explosion in net profit), new energy layout (increasing stake in Ruisheng New Energy to 38.32%), and the lidar concept, combined with the exhaustion of negative factors after restricted stock unlocking, leading to a volume inflow of capital. Technically, it is in an uptrend but overbought in the short term; fundamentally, its performance has improved but revenue is still declining, with extremely high valuation.

: Under the current situation of bullish market sentiment and expanded trading volume, the stock price may continue to rise inertially to test the resistance level of RMB 23.99. However, investors need to be alert to the pullback risk caused by valuation decoupling from fundamentals and technical indicator overbought conditions. It is recommended that investors closely follow subsequent changes in trading volume, main capital flows, and earnings realization, and rationally assess investment risks.

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database — Real-time Market, Price Data, Technical Indicators, Corporate Financial Data

[1] Stockstar — Tanaka Precision Machinery: Main Funds Net Purchased RMB 1.4888 Million on January 16 (https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2026011600040516.shtml)

[2] Sohu Securities — Tanaka Precision Machinery: Main Funds Net Sold RMB 2.9965 Million on January 15 (https://www.sohu.com/a/976496988_121319643)

[3] Sina Finance — Tanaka Precision Machinery Deepens Layout in Cutting-Edge New Energy Sector (http://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/go.php/vCB_AllNewsStock/symbol/sz300461.phtml)

[4] 10jqka — Tanaka Precision Machinery: Announcement on Increasing Stake in Invested Company and Connected Transaction (https://news.10jqka.com.cn/2025/12-17/14430573.shtml)

[5] Sina Finance — Tanaka Precision Machinery: Responds to Questions about Lidar Equipment Adaptation and Order Scheduling (http://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/go.php/vCB_AllNewsStock/symbol/sz300461.phtml)

[6] Eastmoney — 29.6945 Million Restricted Shares of Tanaka Precision Machinery to be Unlocked and Listed on December 19 (http://quote.eastmoney.com/sz300461.html)

[7] Jinling Technical Analysis System — Trend Analysis, Technical Indicators, Price Levels

[8] Jinling DCF Valuation Model — Three-Scenario Valuation Analysis