In-Depth Analysis Report on STO Express (002468)'s 'Revenue Growth Outpacing Volume Growth' Model

Based on systematically collected data and research materials, we hereby provide you with an in-depth analysis report on STO Express’s ‘revenue growth outpacing volume growth’ growth model.

---

[0][1][2]

Metric	Value	YoY Change	Industry Comparison
Express Service Revenue	RMB 5.836 billion	+28.23%	Leading revenue growth rate
Shipping Volume	2.501 billion tickets	+11.09%	Stable growth rate
Single-Ticket Revenue	RMB 2.33	+15.35%	Largest price increase
Revenue-Volume Growth Gap	—	+17.14pct	Significantly outpaces volume growth rate

STO Express demonstrates typical characteristics of ‘revenue growth outpacing volume growth’:

, indicating that the company is undergoing a strategic transformation from ‘volume growth at the cost of price’ to ‘value competition’.

---

In July 2025, the State Post Bureau held a party group meeting, explicitly opposing cutthroat competition, and rectifying end-to-end service quality issues in accordance with laws and regulations[1][2]. This policy orientation provides institutional guarantees for industry price recovery.

• Since August 2025, express delivery industry prices have gradually recovered
• Price increases have been launched in many regions across the country, raising the floor for single-ticket revenue
• The new price floor is expected to be difficult to break, and the industry’s price center is moving upward

According to data from Cinda Securities, the single-ticket revenue increase of major express delivery companies from August to November[2][3]:

Company	Price Increase	Ranking
STO Express	+RMB 0.44 (+17.0%)	1st
Yunda Holding	+RMB 0.25 (+10.4%)	2nd
YTO Express	+RMB 0.16 (+7.0%)	3rd
SF Holding	+RMB 0.20 (+1.5%)	4th

Benefiting from the consolidation of Dan Niao Logistics and anti-cutthroat competition policies,

, demonstrating strong price transmission capability.

E-commerce express delivery demand maintains resilient growth[1][3]:

• In the first 11 months of 2025, cumulative express delivery volume reached 180.74 billion tickets, with a YoY increase of +14.9%
• New models such as live-stream e-commerce and community group buying continue to create incremental demand
• The miniaturization of packages and increased repurchase frequency of affordable goods are driving the growth of package volume

According to market research, since February 2026,

[2]:

• ZTO lowered prices in grain-producing regions such as Jieyang, triggering follow-up actions by other brands
• Competition among express delivery outlets has intensified after the Spring Festival, and pressure from price wars still exists

A research report from Huayuan Securities points out[4]:

• The competitive landscape of the e-commerce express delivery industry has not yet stabilized
• Leading companies’ demand for market share has increased, and price games may resume in 2026
• STO needs to strike a balance between scale and profit

---

According to financial data[0][4][5]:

Metric	2024	H1 2025	Trend
Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders	RMB 1.04 billion	RMB 453 million	+3.7% YoY
Gross Margin	6.00%	5.40%	Under pressure
Net Margin	2.20%	1.80%	Decreased by 0.2pct
ROE	10.60%	—	Significantly improved
Single-Ticket Profit	—	RMB 0.04	Still in a meager profit state

• In 2024, net profit attributable to shareholders increased by +205.24% YoY, indicating significant profitability recovery[5]
• However, in Q2 2025, affected by intensified industry price competition, single-ticket profit decreased by RMB 0.01 quarter-over-quarter compared to Q1
• STO is currently in a transition period from “volume growth at the cost of price” to “simultaneous growth in volume and price”

STO’s single-ticket revenue in December increased by +15.35% YoY. If this trend continues[1][4]:

• It is estimated that the full-year 2025 single-ticket revenue will increase by approximately 10-12% compared to 2024
• The price increase will directly boost single-ticket gross profit by RMB 0.02-0.03

According to mid-year report data[4][6]:

• 56 sets of matrix narrow-band sorting equipment were added in H1 2025
• A total of 514 sets of automated sorting equipment are owned, representing a +21.2% increase from the beginning of the year
• The self-owned fleet has 8,054 vehicles, with a YoY increase of +28.4%
• Capital expenditure reached RMB 884 million, with a YoY growth of 29.2%, demonstrating confidence in expansion

Starting from November 2025, Dan Niao Logistics (to be upgraded to “Cainiao Express” in the future) has been included in the consolidated financial statements[3]:

• Dan Niao Logistics serves high-end platforms such as Tmall Supermarket
• It is expected to bring about 500-800 million tickets per year of incremental business to the company
• It will help improve the overall single-ticket revenue and profit margin

Multiple institutions have provided profit forecasts[4][5][6]:

Year	Operating Revenue (RMB 100 million)	Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (RMB 100 million)	YoY Growth Rate	PE
2024A	471.69	10.40	+205.24%	24.26
2025E	545.89	13.72	+31.9%	19
2026E	592.07	16.69	+21.7%	16
2027E	628.94	19.73	+18.3%	14

• STO Express’s compound annual growth rate of net profit is expected to reach 24% from 2025 to 2027
• The PE ratio has dropped from 24x to 14x, indicating market recognition of its improvement
• ROE is expected to increase from 10.60% to 15.75%, and shareholder returns continue to improve

---

[2][3]:

Time Point	STO’s Market Share	Yunda’s Market Share	Gap
Early 2024	12.5%	14.0%	-1.5pct
Late 2024	13.0%	13.8%	-0.8pct
January 2025	13.2%	13.5%	-0.3pct
December 2025	13.2%	13.5%	-0.3pct

• In January 2025, STO’s monthly shipping volume (2.023 billion tickets)
  surpassed Yunda’s (2.013 billion tickets)
  for the first time in recent years[3]
• The gap in shipping volume between STO and Yunda narrowed significantly from 4.7 billion tickets in 2022 to 1.1 billion tickets in 2024
• The market share gap narrowed from 2% to less than 1%

• STO is accelerating its pursuit of Yunda through the consolidation of Dan Niao Logistics and its pricing strategy
• Yunda’s single-ticket revenue in January 2025 decreased by 11.01% YoY, the largest decline among peers, indicating weak price competitiveness
• If STO maintains its “revenue growth outpacing volume growth” trend, it is expected to officially overtake Yunda in shipping volume in 2026

[1][4]:

Ranking	Company	Market Share	Positioning
1	ZTO Express	16.6%	Industry leader, scale advantage
2	YTO Express	15.3%	Stable operation
3	Yunda Holding	13.8%	Under pressure, needs to counterattack
4	STO Express	13.2%	Accelerating pursuit
5	SF Express	9.0%	Leader in time-sensitive express delivery
—	J&T Express	~9%	Rapidly emerging

1. Shift from Price Wars to Value Competition
   • The old model of “volume growth at the cost of price” is gradually fading out
   • The focus of competition is shifting to service quality, network efficiency, and integrated logistics capabilities

2. Continuous Increase in Concentration
   • In H1 2025, the CR4 (top four players in the industry) accounted for approximately 56% of the market share
   • Small and medium-sized express delivery companies are being eliminated or acquired at an accelerated pace

3. Intensified Differentiated Competition
   • STO focuses on “building China’s leading economy express delivery with superior experience”
   • SF is deepening its integrated logistics ecosystem
   • ZTO is regaining market share

---

Dimension	Assessment	Description
Sustainability of “Revenue Growth Outpacing Volume Growth”	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)	Policy support + demand resilience, but need to be alert to repeated price wars
Profitability Improvement	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10)	Driven by both price increases and cost reduction, with high profit elasticity
Impact on Competitive Landscape	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)	Expected to overtake Yunda, but ZTO’s leading position is stable
Valuation Attractiveness	⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10)	PE ratio of only 19x, in a historically low range

According to views from institutions such as Huayuan Securities and Minsheng Securities[4][5][6]:

• Initiate Coverage / Maintain “Buy” Rating
• The target price corresponds to a 2025 PE ratio of approximately 18x
• Core logic: Anti-cutthroat competition policies bring performance elasticity, and the consolidation of Dan Niao Logistics boosts performance

1. Risk of Slowdown in Industry Demand
   : Macroeconomic fluctuations may affect e-commerce consumption
2. Risk of Industry Price Increases Falling Short of Expectations
   : Repeated price wars may erode profits
3. Risk of Anti-Cutthroat Competition Policies Falling Short of Expectations
   : Uncertainty exists in policy implementation intensity
4. Risk of Instability in End-Level Franchisees
   : Network management capabilities need continuous improvement

---

STO Express’s “revenue growth outpacing volume growth” growth model

, mainly based on the following:

1. Policy Dividend
   : The State Post Bureau’s anti-cutthroat competition policies provide institutional guarantees for industry price recovery
2. Demand Resilience
   : E-commerce express delivery demand maintains double-digit growth, and live-stream e-commerce continues to create incremental demand
3. Competitive Advantage
   : STO’s single-ticket revenue increase leads the industry, and the consolidation of Dan Niao Logistics brings synergy effects
4. Cost Optimization
   : Continuous investment in automation and intelligence is advancing, with great potential for cost reduction and efficiency improvement

: It is estimated that STO’s compound annual growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 24% from 2025 to 2027, and ROE will increase from 10.6% to 15.8%. The company is moving from a meager profit state to a reasonable return level.

: STO is expected to overtake Yunda to become the third-largest player in the industry in 2026. Industry competition is shifting from “price wars” to “value competition”, and the concentration of leading players is further increasing.

: With a current PE ratio of only 19x, the valuation is at a historically low level. Driven by both anti-cutthroat competition policies and business structure optimization, it has good medium-to-long-term investment value.

---

[0] Jinling API - STO Express (002468.SZ) Company Profile and Financial Data

[1] Securities Times - “Express Delivery Industry Volume Continues to Grow; Anti-Cutthroat Competition Policies Benefit Single-Ticket Price Recovery” (https://stcn.com/article/detail/3558937.html)

[2] Cinda Securities - Industry Special Report: “December Unit Price Remained Stable Month-over-Month; Express Delivery Volume Maintained High Growth” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202501201642354423_1.pdf)

[3] Sina Finance - “‘Volume Growth at the Cost of Price’ Fades! Performance Differentiation of A-Share Express Delivery Companies Remains Obvious in November” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2025-12-24/doc-inhcvmka0421055.shtml)

[4] Huayuan Securities - Initiation Coverage Report on STO Express (002468.SZ): “Price Wars Pressure Short-Term Profitability; Anti-Cutthroat Competition Policies Bring Significant Improvement Elasticity” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202509041738804994_1.pdf)

[5] Minsheng Securities - Review of STO Express’s 2025 Mid-Year Report: “2Q25 Revenue Up 13.9% YoY; Optimistic About 2H25 Performance Against the Background of Anti-Cutthroat Competition Policies” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202508311737338557_1.pdf)

[6] CCXI - 2025 Credit Rating Report on STO Express Co., Ltd. (http://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/3a16c6a37f0d68e75682e177b2488039.pdf)

---

Chart 1: Analysis of STO Express’s “Revenue Growth Outpacing Volume Growth” Model in 2025

Chart 2: Analysis of the Evolution of the Express Delivery Industry Competitive Landscape