Analysis of Chaojie Co., Ltd. (301005)'s Strong Performance: Opportunities and Risk Assessment Driven by Commercial Space

Chaojie Co., Ltd. (301005.SZ) has recently entered the strong stock pool, with a staggering 145.49% gain in the past month and over 400% gain year-to-date. This round of strong performance is mainly driven by the commercial aerospace industry boom, coupled with multiple catalysts such as the successful launch of the “first rocket” of private space in 2026, a surge of over 76% in the satellite industry index, and intensive institutional research (144 institutions participated in 7 research sessions in the past month)[1][4]. However, current valuations have fully priced in optimistic expectations, with short-term pullback risks. It is recommended that investors wait for a 20%-30% adjustment before considering entry.

Chaojie Co., Ltd. (Chaojie Fastening System (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.) was listed on the ChiNext Board in June 2021, with its main business being the R&D, production, and sales of high-strength precision fasteners and special-shaped connectors. The company’s products are mainly used in two areas: traditional automotive engine turbocharging systems, and key parts of new energy vehicle battery trays, chassis, and body[8].

Notably, the company strategically entered the commercial aerospace sector through the acquisition of Chengdu Xinyue Numerical Control Machinery Co., Ltd., mainly engaged in the manufacturing of rocket body structural components, including shell segments, fairings, fuel tanks, engine valves, etc., with customers covering leading domestic private rocket companies such as LandSpace, Space Pioneer, and CAS Space[7]. Currently, the company’s commercial aerospace business has an annual production capacity of 10 rocket structural components, and completed the riveting production line construction in H1 2024; subsequent capacity expansion can be carried out at any time according to order demand (construction cycle is about 4 months)[7].

On January 16, 2026, Galactic Energy’s Ceres-1 Sea Launch Type (Yao-7) completed a multi-satellite launch, marking the successful completion of the first launch mission of private space in 2026. This event has greatly boosted market confidence in the commercial aerospace industry[3].

The satellite industry index has soared by as much as 76.83% in the past month, with over 10 stocks in the sector doubling in value. On January 12, the trading volume of the two cities exceeded 3.64 trillion yuan, hitting a record high, and the commercial aerospace and satellite industry indices both rose by over 8% in a single day, with 18 component stocks including China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd. hitting their daily limits[4].

Chaojie Co., Ltd. has received 7 institutional research sessions in the past month, with a total of 144 institutions participating, including well-known institutions such as Kaiyuan Securities, Yunhan Assets, Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, Penghua Fund, and Changjiang Securities[4][6]. During the research, the company clearly provided 2026 business growth guidance: the commercial aerospace business is expected to enter mass cooperation with new customers starting from Q1 2026, and related revenue is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2026[6][7].

6 satellite-themed ETFs have attracted nearly 13 billion yuan in total in the past month, with the Yongying CSI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry ETF exceeding 11.7 billion yuan in scale, becoming the first 10-billion-level satellite-themed ETF, providing ample capital support for the sector[4].

From fundamental data, the company achieved operating revenue of 602 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.49%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.4284 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.52%[6]. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was only 10.6156 million yuan, a significant decline from previous periods, reflecting certain volatility in the company’s performance.

It is worth noting that the company’s commercial aerospace subsidiary, Chengdu Xinyue, has posted losses for three consecutive years: a loss of 4.4499 million yuan in 2022, a loss of 21.4927 million yuan in 2023, and an expanded loss of 27.3257 million yuan in 2024[8]. This indicates that the commercial aerospace business is still in the investment period, has not yet achieved large-scale profitability, and there is uncertainty in performance realization.

From a technical analysis perspective, market discussions indicate that a short-term top pattern has emerged. Some investors pointed out that “the K-line combination over four consecutive days has formed a short-term top for the stock” and predicted that a “weekly-level adjustment” may be imminent[9]. In addition, the company disclosed the “Announcement on Severe Abnormal Fluctuation of the Company’s Stock Price” on December 29, 2025, and the regulatory authorities have paid attention to the sharp fluctuations in the stock price[1][2].

The strong performance of Chaojie Co., Ltd. is not an isolated phenomenon, but a microcosm of the overall boom in the commercial aerospace industry. From December 25 to 31, 2025, China submitted an application to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for frequency and orbit resources for an additional 203,000 satellites, covering 14 satellite constellations. This policy trend provides a long-term growth anchor for the commercial aerospace industry[4]. Against this background, rocket body structural components, as a core part accounting for about 25% of rocket costs, have a clear market space[7].

From an industrial chain perspective, as an upstream structural component supplier, Chaojie Co., Ltd.'s business growth is highly dependent on the frequency of downstream rocket launches and the progress of satellite networking. Currently, domestic commercial aerospace is in the critical transition stage from “concept verification” to “large-scale launch”, and the company is expected to benefit from the industry boom dividends.

The high attention from institutional investors reflects the market’s recognition of the long-term value of the commercial aerospace track. The Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Powerful Industry Hybrid Fund holds 7.2% of Chaojie Co., Ltd.'s shares, and 1 institution has given a “Buy” rating in the past 90 days[2][6]. This phenomenon of institutional clustering not only reflects recognition of the industrial logic, but also means that market expectations have become highly consistent.

However, when investors asked during institutional research whether the company supplies SpaceX, the company replied that “it is currently mainly focused on the domestic market”[2], indicating that the company has not yet entered the international supply chain and is unlikely to share the development dividends of international giants such as SpaceX in the short term.

The current market value is approximately 21.2 billion yuan, with a year-to-date gain of over 400%[8]. Based on 2024 net profit of 10.6156 million yuan, the price-to-earnings ratio is as high as about 2000x. Even considering 2025 performance growth, the valuation level still significantly deviates from fundamental support.

The commercial aerospace business is still small in scale, and some products were only delivered and generated revenue starting in 2024[8]. The trend of Chengdu Xinyue posting consecutive annual losses with expanding loss margins indicates that large-scale profitability of the business still takes time. The 2026 business guidance remains to be verified by actual data.

The company has issued an announcement on severe abnormal fluctuation of stock price, and the controlling shareholder announced the completion of the share reduction plan on December 30, 2025[1][2]. These signals all indicate that short-term risks are accumulating.

The satellite industry index has seen a huge short-term gain (76% in the past month), and may pull back at any time due to changes in market sentiment[4].

The commercial aerospace industry is in a golden development period with “clear policies and booming demand”[3]. With the advancement of domestic satellite networking plans and the increase in commercial launch frequency, the demand for rocket body structural components is expected to continue to grow.

If the stock price pulls back by 20%-30%, it will provide a relatively reasonable entry opportunity for medium-term investors. Key observation indicators include the progress of mass cooperation with new customers in Q1 2026, the disclosure of the 2024 annual report (April 21, 2026)[2], and subsequent order status.

The company’s commercial aerospace business has the ability to expand production quickly (4-month construction cycle), which can respond to changes in market demand in a timely manner, providing production capacity guarantee for business growth.

The strong performance of Chaojie Co., Ltd. in this round is driven by the resonance of multiple factors: the launch of the first private space rocket in 2026 ignited market enthusiasm, the surge in the satellite industry index drove sector effects, intensive institutional research sent positive signals, and the company’s clear 2026 business growth guidance provided imagination space[1][3][4][6][7].

However, it is necessary to clearly recognize that the current stock price has significantly deviated from fundamental support. The company’s main fastener business has grown steadily, but the commercial aerospace business is still in the early loss stage, and performance realization requires time to verify[8]. Chengdu Xinyue has posted consecutive annual losses with expanding loss margins, and the performance commitment made at the time of acquisition has not been achieved in the short term, which poses potential pressure on valuations[8].

From a trading perspective, the excessive short-term gain coupled with the emergence of a technical top pattern suggests that investors should remain cautious. Holders may consider reducing positions in batches to lock in profits, while non-holders should wait and see or consider entering after a pullback. In the medium to long term, the trend of the commercial aerospace industry is clear, and the company has certain industrial positioning advantages as a rocket body structural component supplier, but it is necessary to continuously track business progress and performance realization.

Progress of mass cooperation in the commercial aerospace business in Q1 2026, 2024 annual report data (disclosed in April 2026), subsequent institutional research dynamics, satellite launch mission arrangements, and the company’s order status.

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[0] Jinling Analysis Database (internal market data and technical analysis tools)

[1] Securities Times, Chaojie Co., Ltd. Announcement Summary, https://www.stcn.com/quotes/index/sz301005.html

[2] Xueqiu, Chaojie Co., Ltd. Stock Price and Discussions, https://xueqiu.com/S/SZ301005

[3] Eastmoney, Analysis of the First Private Space Rocket in 2026, https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260116114104025092310

[4] Yicai, Satellite ETFs Rise by Up to 74% in One Month, https://www.yicai.com/news/102999915.html

[5] Sina Finance, Risk Warning on Short-Term Speculation of Satellite ETFs, https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-13/doc-inhhcaec9450654.shtml

[6] Sohu, Chaojie Co., Ltd. Institutional Research Announcement, https://q.stock.sohu.com/cn/news.html?textId=968875751

[7] FXBaogao, Chaojie Co., Ltd. Institutional Research Minutes, https://www.fxbaogao.com/detail/5226918

[8] Zhihu Column, Analysis of Commercial Aerospace Business of Fastener Leader Chaojie Co., Ltd., https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/1988966857785509782

[9] Xueqiu, Chaojie Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis Discussion, https://xueqiu.com/S/SZ301005