Analysis of Hegen Technology (300279)'s Strong Performance: Strong Momentum but Accumulated Risks

Hegen Technology (300279.SZ) surged to the 20% daily price limit on January 19, 2026, closing at RMB 9.61 with a 19.98% gain, hitting a 52-week high [0][1]. Notably, the trading volume skyrocketed to 103.29 million shares on the day, a surge of about 11.8 times compared to the average daily volume of 8.75 million shares, with turnover reaching approximately RMB 865 million, indicating a sharp rise in market attention and intense capital rivalry [0][1]. Looking at the periodic performance, the stock has risen 38.27% in the past month, 36.70% in the past three months, 32.92% year-to-date, and as much as 53.76% in the past year, significantly outperforming the broader market [0][1]. Such sustained sharp growth indicates that the stock has evolved from a general rebound to a trending upward rally.

According to Sina Finance AI Abnormality Analysis [4], Hegen Technology’s limit-up is the result of multiple factors converging:

is the primary catalyst. The company abolished the board of supervisors and assigned the supervision function to the audit committee, while revising a number of internal management systems. This move is interpreted by the market as a positive signal of improved decision-making efficiency and governance level [4]. Optimization of the governance structure often lays the foundation for the long-term stable development of the enterprise and enhances the trust of institutional investors.

constitutes a substantive positive factor. Data shows that the company’s financial expenses decreased by 76.41% year-on-year, achieving remarkable cost reduction and efficiency improvement; short-term borrowings decreased by 54.66%, the liability structure was significantly optimized, and financial risks were reduced [4]. The current ratio of 1.65 and quick ratio of 1.23 are both at healthy levels, indicating strong short-term solvency of the company [0].

provides performance support. In the first three quarters of 2025, net profit increased by 23.84% year-on-year, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses increased by 15.99% [4]. EPS in Q3 FY2025 was RMB 0.04, an improvement from the previous period [0]. Although the net profit margin of 3.54% and operating profit margin of 4.37% are still at low levels, the growth trend is clear [0].

provides thematic impetus. The company focuses on IoT sector business, covering the entire IoT industry chain such as intelligent hardware and application software [4]. Currently, the memory chip concept remains hot, and the relevant concept index has surged by over 18% since 2026 [2]. Fund managers generally are optimistic about the investment opportunities in “Optical” (optical interconnection) and “Storage” (memory) in 2026 [3]. The popularity of the IoT sector provides additional market attention and capital inflow momentum for this stock.

From the perspective of technical indicators, Hegen Technology shows typical characteristics of a “strong short squeeze” trend [0]:

: The MACD remains in a golden cross state without forming a death cross, providing technical support for the continuation of the bullish signal [0]. The price has effectively broken through the 20-day moving average (RMB 7.40), with a deviation of about 43% from the moving average, forming a large deviation rate. The beta coefficient is 0.39, indicating that the stock has low correlation with the broader market and its trend is relatively independent [0].

have entered the extreme overbought zone. In the KDJ indicator, the K value is 89.0, D value is 80.5, and J value is 106.1, with the J value breaking through 100 into the extreme overbought zone [0]. RSI (14) is also in an overbought state, creating a strong technical demand for correction [0]. The trend score is 4.0/5.0, defined as “Uptrend but to be confirmed” [0].

: The resistance level of RMB 9.61 has been broken, with the next target level at RMB 9.92; the support level of RMB 7.69 is the key level for recent pullbacks, and the 20-day moving average of RMB 7.40 is the medium-term trend dividing line [0]. Considering that the stock price has hit a new historical high, RMB 9.61 has transformed from a resistance level to a support level, and it is necessary to observe whether it can stabilize effectively in the follow-up.

is the most controversial point at present. The PE (TTM) reaches 73.92x, significantly higher than the average level of the technology industry [0][1]; P/B is 4.54x, at a medium-high level; P/S is 2.56x, moderate; ROE is only 6.44%, with a low level of shareholder return [0]. High valuation means that the market has high expectations for the company’s future growth, and if the performance cannot be continuously delivered, the risk of valuation regression is high.

shows the characteristic of “growing revenue without growing profit”. In terms of revenue, Q1 FY2025 was RMB 459.91 million, Q2 FY2025 was RMB 460.64 million, and Q3 FY2025 was RMB 400.43 million, showing certain fluctuations [0]. Although net profit has grown, the profit margin is low, reflecting fierce industry competition or room for improvement in cost control.

lie in IoT layout and intelligent manufacturing direction. The company’s business covers the entire IoT industry chain such as intelligent hardware and application software, benefiting from the trend of industrial automation and intelligent manufacturing upgrading, and its technological attributes are in line with the long-term strategy of domestic substitution [4]. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the high volatility of ChiNext stocks and the uncertainty of the sustainability of concept speculation.

focus on three dimensions:

1. Valuation risk
   : The valuation level of PE exceeding 70x has fully reflected optimistic expectations. Once market sentiment changes or performance falls short of expectations, it may face the risk of “double kill” of valuation and performance [0][1].

2. Technical correction risk
   : Both KDJ and RSI are in the extreme overbought zone, with a large deviation rate (43% deviation from the 20-day moving average), leading to a high probability of short-term correction [0]. Historically, extreme overbought is often followed by a 5%-15% technical correction.

3. Risk of insufficient performance support
   : ROE is only 6.44%, net profit margin is 3.54%, profitability is weak, and the sustainability of fundamental improvement needs to be verified [0].

also exists:

1. Capital support
   : Significant net buying of large orders, with major funds heavily involved. The 11.8-fold surge in trading volume shows intense capital rivalry but a clear direction [4].

2. Sustained concept popularity
   : IoT and memory chip concepts remain market hotspots, and sector linkage effects are expected to continue [2][3][4].

3. Independent market characteristics
   : Beta is only 0.39, with low correlation with the broader market. It may stage an independent market against the background of volatile broader market.

Comprehensively evaluating factors from various dimensions, the sustainability of Hegen Technology’s strong performance shows differentiated characteristics:

. The heavy involvement of major funds and significant expansion of trading volume are typical characteristics of institutional positions. As long as the capital side maintains net inflows, the stock still has upward momentum in the short term [4].

. Although the performance growth rate is clear, the profit margin is low, ROE is not attractive, and high valuation limits long-term investment value [0].

. Under the extreme overbought state, the demand for technical correction is accumulating day by day. If the trading volume cannot be maintained or a limit-up on shrinking volume occurs the next day, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of momentum attenuation [0].

. The popularity of IoT and memory chip concepts still exists, but the technology sector as a whole fell 0.51% today [4], with obvious sector differentiation, and the sustainability of the concept needs to be observed [2][3].

: The stock has strong short-term momentum, but based on valuation level and technical analysis, the risk of chasing the rally is high. Investors should remain cautious, and it is more prudent to wait for a pullback before entering positions. For existing holders, they may consider reducing positions in batches on rallies to lock in profits; non-holders are not recommended to chase the rally, and may consider entering positions when the stock pulls back to the RMB 8.00-8.50 range, while setting RMB 7.69 as the key stop-loss level.