Analysis Report on the Sustainability of AI Industry Development and Investment Allocation Strategies

Based on the latest market data and research materials, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis report on the investment prospects and asset allocation of the AI industry.

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According to multiple authoritative studies, the rapid development of the AI industry has

and is expected to continue leading global economic growth in the coming years. Morgan Stanley pointed out in its 2026 outlook that the AI investment cycle is expected to involve approximately in enterprise spending, and it is still in the [1]. According to McKinsey’s 2025 AI survey data, approximately have applied AI in at least one business function, a significant increase compared to previous years, and more than two-thirds of enterprises use AI in multiple functions [2].

From the perspective of productivity contribution, Morgan Stanley predicts that AI-driven productivity improvements will account for

[3]. The OECD predicts that global economic growth will slow from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026. Against this backdrop, productivity gains brought by AI will become the core engine for sustaining economic growth momentum. iShares research indicates that 46 S&P index components identified as “AI stocks” achieved an average annual net profit growth rate of between 2023 and 2025, compared to only for the non-AI stock group. This profit growth divergence is expected to continue into 2026 [4].

Global AI infrastructure construction is in a period of rapid expansion. iShares expects AI infrastructure spending to exceed

in 2026, covering continuous investments in large-scale AI data centers by hyperscale cloud service providers, sovereign entities, enterprises, emerging cloud service providers, and AI laboratories [4]. TSMC recently announced a 2026 capital expenditure plan of up to , far exceeding market expectations, indicating that upstream suppliers are confident in the sustainability of demand for AI chips [5]. This data strongly refutes market concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure expansion.

More importantly, most current users only use text-to-text chatbots, whose computing consumption is negligible compared to complex application scenarios such as image/video generation, autonomous agent systems, and robotics. These more complex application scenarios (such as autonomous ride-hailing taxis) are in the early stages of rapid development, foreshadowing a further explosive growth in computing demand [4].

Despite the strong development momentum of the AI industry, investors still need to pay attention to the following risk factors:

• Valuation Risk
  : NVIDIA’s current DCF valuation shows that in a conservative scenario, the reasonable value is $67.43, representing a
  63.8% downside potential
  compared to the current price. Even in a baseline scenario using the 5-year historical average as a benchmark, the stock price is still approximately 54.3% below the reasonable valuation [6]. This valuation divergence reflects the market’s extremely high growth expectations.
• Regulatory Policy Risk
  : China’s import ban has caused NVIDIA to suspend production of its H200 chip [7], and geopolitical factors may continue to disrupt supply chains and market access.
• Intensified Competition Risk
  : Competitors such as AMD, Broadcom, Google’s TPU, and Cerebras are gradually eroding NVIDIA’s market share. OpenAI has reached a computing power procurement agreement of over
  $10 billion
  with Cerebras, aiming to reduce its dependence on NVIDIA [8].
• Execution Risk
  : PineBridge Investment Research points out that as uncertainty rises, enterprises need to convert AI investments into measurable productivity and cost efficiency, and execution quality will become the key to distinguishing winners from losers [9].

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As the absolute leader in the global AI chip market, NVIDIA currently has a market capitalization of

and a stock price of $186.10 [6].

Core Metrics	Value
P/E Ratio	45.64x
P/B Ratio	38.08x
ROE	1.04%
Net Profit Margin	53.01%
Beta Coefficient	2.31
1-Year Return	+32.15%
5-Year Return	+1328.28%

: The company’s debt risk rating is , its financial stance remains , and free cash flow reaches [6]. The data center business has become the core revenue source, with Q2 FY2026 revenue reaching , accounting for [6].

: The current stock price is in a pattern, with a reference technical range of support at $183.63 and resistance at $188.83. The MACD indicator shows no crossover signal, while the KDJ indicator signals an oversold opportunity. With a Beta coefficient as high as 2.31, the stock price volatility is approximately 2.31 times that of the market [6].

: The consensus target price is , representing a from the current price. The rating distribution is: 75.9% Buy, 20.3% Hold, 3.8% Sell, with an overall rating of [6]. Notably, NVIDIA is expected to release its Q4 FY2026 earnings report on February 25, 2026, with market expectations of EPS at $1.52 and revenue at $65.49 billion [6].

Microsoft currently has a market capitalization of

and a stock price of $459.86 [6].

Core Metrics	Value
P/E Ratio	32.68x
P/B Ratio	9.41x
ROE	High
Free Cash Flow	$71.61 billion
Beta Coefficient	1.07

: The company adopts , with a debt risk rating of , reflecting a prudent financial management style. Free cash flow is strong, reaching $71.61 billion [6].

: The stock price is also in sideways consolidation, with a reference range of support at $455.73 and resistance at $478.23. Both the KDJ and RSI indicators signal an , which may foreshadow a short-term rebound [6]. Compared to NVIDIA, Microsoft’s Beta coefficient is only 1.07, with volatility significantly lower than the market average.

: Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI and the commercialization of AI products such as Copilot have placed it in a favorable position in AI applications. Microsoft and NVIDIA plan to jointly invest up to in Anthropic [10], further strengthening their AI layout.

As an AI server supplier, SMCI currently has a market capitalization of

and a stock price of $32.66 [6].

Core Metrics	Value
P/E Ratio	27.05x
P/B Ratio	3.29x
ROE	12.46%
Net Profit Margin	3.77%

: Recent performance has been under pressure, with Q1 FY2026 revenue falling short of expectations ($502 million vs. expected $583 million), and the stock price has dropped in the past 3 months [6]. However, the company’s liquidity indicators are healthy (current ratio 5.39), and the analyst consensus target price is , implying a [6].

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The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose

in the past month, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) rose [11]. SOXX’s strong performance reflects high market attention to the AI chip sector.

Index	Period Performance	3-Month Volatility
S&P 500	+4.13%	0.75%
NASDAQ	+4.37%	1.07%
Dow Jones	+6.45%	0.71%
Russell 2000	+10.28%	1.21%

Notably, the Russell 2000 Index, which represents small-cap stocks, has delivered outstanding performance (+10.28%), which may reflect market expectations of AI applications spreading to broader economic sectors [11].

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Based on the above analysis, it is recommended to adopt a

strategy for AI-themed investment allocation:

:

• Core Holdings (AI Leaders, 30%)
  : Allocate to companies with market leadership and solid financial foundations such as NVIDIA and Microsoft. This allocation should serve as the anchor of the AI investment portfolio.
• Growth Allocation (AI Applications, 25%)
  : Focus on growth-stage companies in sub-sectors such as AI software applications and robotics to benefit from the penetration of AI technology into various industries.
• Infrastructure (Data Centers, 20%)
  : Allocate to semiconductor ETFs such as SOXX, as well as data center REITs and server suppliers, to benefit from continuous investment in AI infrastructure construction.
• Defensive Allocation (High Dividends, 15%)
  : Allocate to tech companies with stable cash flow and high dividend yields to balance portfolio volatility.
• Cash/Hedging (10%)
  : Maintain a moderate cash position to cope with market volatility and seize tactical buying opportunities.

:

• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  : The leader in AI GPUs with an 80-95% market share, the CUDA ecosystem has a moat of
  4 million developers
  [12]. The launch of the Blackwell Ultra and Rubin platforms will provide sustained growth momentum. Analysts have a maximum target price of
  $500
  [12].
• TSMC (TSM)
  : As a wafer foundry partner of NVIDIA and AMD, it benefits from sustained growth in demand for AI chips. The 2026 capital expenditure plan of $56 billion exceeds market expectations [5].

:

• Microsoft (MSFT)
  : A leader in AI applications, with continuous commercialization of Copilot and Azure OpenAI services. Its low Beta coefficient (1.07) makes it a stabilizer in the portfolio [6].

:

• SOXX (Semiconductor ETF)
  : Focuses on the U.S. semiconductor industry, covering core targets such as NVIDIA and AMD, and is an efficient tool to benefit from AI chip growth [11].

1. Diversification
   : Avoid excessive concentration in a single company or sub-sector. The AI industry chain involves multiple links such as chips, infrastructure, and software applications, and allocation should be diversified across all these links.

2. Dynamic Rebalancing
   : The AI industry is evolving rapidly, so it is necessary to regularly assess changes in the fundamentals and technical signals of holdings, and adjust allocation ratios in a timely manner.

3. Focus on Valuation Discipline
   : Current valuations of AI-related targets are generally high, so reasonable entry points and stop-loss points should be set to avoid chasing high prices.

4. Focus on Catalyst Events
   : NVIDIA will release its earnings report on February 25, 2026 [6]. Changes in capital expenditure plans of upstream suppliers such as TSMC, as well as AI investment guidance from major cloud service providers, are important observation indicators.

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1. Sustainability of AI Industry Growth
   : Based on the increase in enterprise adoption rate (88%), accelerated infrastructure investment (expected to exceed $700 billion in 2026), and the early development of complex application scenarios, the AI industry is expected to maintain a significant contribution to global economic growth in the next 2-3 years.

2. Investment Opportunities Coexist with Risks
   : Leaders such as NVIDIA have market leadership and financial strength, but their valuation levels are already high, so it is necessary to pay attention to the fulfillment of growth expectations. Intensified competition and geopolitical risks are potential negative factors that cannot be ignored.

3. Recommended Diversified Allocation Strategy
   : Allocate to AI leaders, growth-stage companies, infrastructure targets, and defensive assets through a core-satellite strategy to effectively manage risks while seizing AI investment opportunities.

PineBridge Investment Research points out that the market’s “healthy skepticism” of AI helps curb excessive behavior, while attention should be paid to early signals of AI monetization in 2026 [9]. iShares research emphasizes that although AI-related stocks have delivered strong returns in 2025, their valuations have instead become more reasonable, providing investors with a more attractive entry opportunity [4].

Overall, the AI industry is in a critical transition stage from “infrastructure construction” to “commercial value realization”. Enterprises that can convert AI investments into measurable productivity and cost efficiency will stand out in the next stage of competition. For investors, it is still a reasonable time to deploy AI investment themes, but prudent valuation discipline and effective risk management should be maintained.

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[1] Morgan Stanley - “AI Boom Drives Thematic Investment” (https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/thematic-investing-ai-drives-megatrends-2026)

[2] Market Xcel - “U.S. Industry Outlook 2026 AI and Automation Growth Trends” (https://www.market-xcel.com/us/blogs/us-industry-outlook-ai-automation-growth-trends)

[3] Morgan Stanley Research - “Technology Diffusion and AI Investment Cycle”

[4] iShares - “Investment Directions 2026 Outlook” (https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/inside-the-market/2026-market-outlook-investment-directions)

[5] Wealth Creation Investing - “Why Nvidia Stock Jumped Today” (https://wealthcreationinvesting.com/investing-news/why-nvidia-stock-jumped-today-2/)

[6] Gilin AI - Real-time Market Data and Financial Analysis API

[7] GuruFocus - “NVIDIA’s (NVDA) AI Chip H200 Production Halts Amid China Import Ban” (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4116595/nvidias-nvda-ai-chip-production-halts-amid-china-import-ban)

[8] DigiTimes - “OpenAI and Cerebras reach US$10 billion agreement to reduce Nvidia dependence” (https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260115PD244/openai-cerebras-ai-chip-performance.html)

[9] PineBridge - “Investment Strategy: Bull and Bear Scenarios for 2026” (https://www.pinebridge.com/en/insights/investment-strategy-insights-assessing-scenarios-for-our-2026-outlook)

[10] Awesome Capital - “Microsoft, Nvidia said to invest $15B total into Anthropic” (https://awesomecapital.blogspot.com/2026/01/microsoft-nvidia-said-to-invest-15b.html)

[11] Gilin AI - Market Index Data

[12] Intellectia AI - “Nvidia NVDA $500 Price Target 2026” (https://intellectia.ai/blog/nvidia-nvda-price-target-2026)

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Report Generation Date: January 19, 2026
Data Sources: Gilin AI Financial Database, SEC Filings, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, etc.