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Fenglong Co., Ltd. (002931) Surges with 13 Consecutive Limit-Up Days: Risks and Warnings Driven by UBTECH Acquisition Expectations

#涨停分析 #收购重组 #人形机器人 #优必选 #题材炒作 #风险警示
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January 19, 2026

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Fenglong Co., Ltd. (002931) Limit-Up Analysis Report
I. Executive Summary

Fenglong Co., Ltd. (002931) hit another daily limit-up after resuming trading on January 19, 2026, extending its strong streak of 13 consecutive limit-up days since December 17, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 245.39%[1][2]. The core driver of this surge is the expectation of control change from Hong Kong-listed UBTECH (09880.HK)'s proposed acquisition of approximately 43% of Fenglong Co., Ltd.'s shares for a total consideration of RMB 1.665 billion[3][4]. However, the company has clearly warned that its stock price is “severely disconnected from fundamentals”, and the current 517x price-to-earnings ratio carries extreme valuation risks[1][5]. Market sentiment is highly exuberant, and investors need to be vigilant against potential deep corrections that may occur at any time.

II. Analysis of Limit-Up Reasons
Core Catalyst: UBTECH’s Acquisition Offer

On December 24, 2025, Fenglong Co., Ltd. released a heavyweight announcement: UBTECH (09880.HK), the Hong Kong-listed company known as the “first stock of humanoid robots”, plans to acquire approximately 43% of Fenglong Co., Ltd.'s shares for a total consideration of RMB 1.665 billion through a combination of “agreement transfer + tender offer”[3][4]. Upon completion of the acquisition, UBTECH will become the controlling shareholder, and the actual controller will change from Dong Jiangang to Zhou Jian, the founder of UBTECH.

The transaction structure is divided into two steps: the first step is the agreement transfer of 29.99% of Fenglong Co., Ltd.'s shares; the second step is a partial tender offer to all shareholders to acquire an additional 13.02% of the shares, bringing the total shareholding to up to 43.01%[4]. UBTECH stated that this acquisition aligns with the long-term strategic goals of both parties, enabling the integration of humanoid robot technology and Fenglong Co., Ltd.'s manufacturing capabilities, leveraging its mature supply chain relationships and customer base to enhance product competitiveness, optimize cost structure, and expand market coverage[3][4].

Heat in the Humanoid Robot Track

2025 is regarded as the first year of commercialization of humanoid robots, and the industry is in a stage of rapid growth. According to the Omdia report, global shipments of humanoid robots reached 13,000 units in 2025, with Chinese companies dominating the global market pattern[4]. This industry background provides rich imagination space for UBTECH’s acquisition of Fenglong Co., Ltd., although Fenglong Co., Ltd.'s current main business is still garden machinery parts, auto parts, and hydraulic parts, which has limited relevance to the humanoid robot industry.

Capital Market Characteristics

During the consecutive limit-up period, Fenglong Co., Ltd. exhibited typical characteristics of “limit-up with low trading volume”: the turnover rate is extremely low, chips are highly locked, and investors’ reluctance to sell is obvious[1][3]. However, shareholder count data shows that retail investors are chasing the rally significantly - as of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders reached 17,400, an increase of 32.10% compared to the previous period[1].

III. Market Sentiment Analysis
Company Risk Warning

In its resumption announcement, Fenglong Co., Ltd. issued a stern risk warning, clearly stating: “The company’s stock price has severely disconnected from the company’s fundamental situation, and there are risks of overheated market sentiment and irrational speculation. The company’s stock price has risen sharply in the short term, which has obviously deviated from the market trend, and there may be a risk of a sharp decline in the stock price in the future.”[1][2][5] This warning indicates that the management is cautious about the current stock price trend.

Investors’ Exuberant Sentiment

According to discussion data from East Money Stock Bar, most investors expect the stock to continue hitting limit-up after resuming trading. Some investors shouted the slogan “rise to 200”, and some investors believed that “it is absolute that it will continue to rise tomorrow”[1]. This sentiment is highly exuberant, with typical “greater fool” psychology - investors hope to sell to other participants at a higher price rather than investing based on the company’s intrinsic value.

Exchange Regulatory Attention

Due to the continuous abnormal fluctuations in stock price, Fenglong Co., Ltd. was suspended from trading for verification starting from January 14, 2026, which is a typical regulatory measure by the exchange against speculative trading of “meme stocks”[2][5]. The company also warned that if the stock price rises abnormally further, it may apply for suspension of trading for verification again[1].

IV. Fundamental and Valuation Analysis
Financial Data Comparison
Financial Indicator 2023 2024 First Three Quarters of 2025
Net Profit Attributable to Parent -RMB 7.0402 million RMB 4.5929 million RMB 21.5185 million
Operating Revenue RMB 373 million (+9.47%)
YoY Growth of Net Profit +1714.99%

From the financial data, the company’s performance did improve in the first three quarters of 2025, but the absolute value is still at a low level. The stock price increase of more than 200 times is completely disconnected from fundamental support[1][3].

Extreme Valuation Risk
Valuation Indicator Data
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E) 517.64x (before suspension)[1]
Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) 14.21x[1]
2024 Net Profit Only RMB 4.59 million
Business Substance Remains Unchanged

The company clearly announced that as of now, its main business is still garden machinery parts, auto parts, and hydraulic parts. UBTECH has no plan or arrangement for backdoor listing through the listed company within 36 months, no asset restructuring plan within 12 months, and no asset injection plan as of now[1][2][5]. This means that the company’s business substance cannot be changed through asset injection in the short term.

V. Key Risk Warnings
Valuation Risk

The current 517x P/E ratio is based on the illusory expectation of the “humanoid robot concept”, not supported by the company’s actual performance. Once market sentiment cools down, the stock price will face the risk of a sharp valuation reversion.

Transaction Uncertainty

This acquisition still requires multiple procedures including UBTECH’s shareholder approval, Hong Kong Stock Exchange review, Shenzhen Stock Exchange compliance review, and share transfer registration, and there is a risk that the transaction cannot be completed[1][2]. In addition, UBTECH’s net profit in the first half of 2025 was -RMB 414 million, with approximately RMB 115.7 million in cash on its books. The RMB 166.5 million acquisition fund comes from placement financing, and its capital pressure and integration capabilities deserve attention[4][5].

Synergy Doubts

Transferring garden machinery manufacturing experience to humanoid robots involves all-round upgrades in materials science, precision standards, testing processes, etc., and there is significant uncertainty in business synergy[4]. After the acquisition is completed, UBTECH will occupy 6 seats on Fenglong Co., Ltd.'s 7-person board of directors, and the original management may face a major reshuffle, and team integration also has uncertainties[4].

Risk of Re-Suspension

If the stock price fluctuates abnormally further, the company may apply for suspension of trading for verification again, which will lead to liquidity risk[1].

VI. Forecast of Subsequent Trend
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Probability Trend Forecast
Continue to Hit Limit-Up Medium May rise inertia after resuming trading, but risks accumulate rapidly
Volatility at High Level High After the limit-up is opened, capital game intensifies, leading to sharp fluctuations
Sharp Correction High May start a deep correction at any time, returning to fundamentals
Technical Support Levels to Watch

From a technical analysis perspective, it is necessary to pay attention to the support strength of the previous intensive trading range of approximately RMB 45-50. If it breaks below the 5-day moving average, investors should consider reducing positions or exiting. Special attention should be paid to the offer price of RMB 17.72 per share in the intended tender offer as an important reference benchmark[4].

Operation Suggestions

For existing investors, it is recommended to gradually take profits on rallies and set trailing stops to protect profits. For investors who have not held positions, the risk of participating at the current price is extremely high, and it is recommended to wait and see. If you are strongly optimistic about the humanoid robot track, you may consider entering after the price pulls back to a reasonable valuation range.

VII. Conclusion

The surge of Fenglong Co., Ltd. with 13 consecutive limit-up days is a typical extreme market driven by theme speculation + control change expectations. The core catalyst is UBTECH’s acquisition offer, but the company has clearly warned that its stock price is “severely disconnected from fundamentals”, and UBTECH has no backdoor listing plan within 36 months, so the company’s business substance cannot be changed through asset injection in the short term. The current 517x P/E ratio is based on the illusory expectation of the “humanoid robot concept”. Once market sentiment cools down, the stock price will face the risk of a sharp valuation reversion. Investors are advised to remain rational and carefully evaluate the risk-reward ratio.


References

[1] East Money - Fenglong Co., Ltd. 13 Consecutive Limit-Up Days Resumption Announcement

[2] National Business Daily - Fenglong Co., Ltd. Completes Suspension Verification and Resumes Trading

[3] StockStar - Progress of Fenglong Co., Ltd.'s Suspension for Verification

[4] Securities Times Network - Analysis of Fenglong Co., Ltd.'s 13 Consecutive Limit-Up Days

[5] Jiemian News - Analysis of UBTECH, the “First Humanoid Robot Stock”, Acquiring Fenglong Co., Ltd.

[6] Sina Finance - Fenglong Co., Ltd. Hits Another Limit-Up After Resuming Trading

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