Analysis of Investment Opportunities in A-Share Consumer Sector Amid Mild Recovery Trend of China's CPI

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, hitting a new high since March 2023[1][2]. The key points of this data include:

The main factors driving the mild recovery of CPI include: in-depth implementation of special consumption promotion actions, continuous effectiveness of coordinated fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, and increased consumer demand among residents ahead of the Spring Festival holiday[1][3]. From high-frequency data since January, prices of goods and services such as fresh fruits, air tickets, and tourism have risen steadily, providing solid fundamental support for the consumer sector.

The liquor sector is in a deep adjustment period, and valuations have fully reflected pessimistic expectations. From institutional perspectives[4][5]:

• Current Status
  : The industry has entered an accelerated consolidation phase, inventory remains at a high level, and wholesale prices are under pressure
• Positive Signals
  : Moutai is promoting market-oriented reforms, with multiple measures gradually being implemented; liquor enterprises have set pragmatic growth targets, proactively slowing down and reducing burdens
• Layout Timing
  : An inventory inflection point is expected in 2026, and the current period is a left-side layout window
• Recommended Targets
  : Kweichow Moutai (stable performance, PEG=0.20), Shanxi Fenjiu (strong potential of light-aroma liquor, PEG=0.17), Luzhou Laojiao (high dividend advantage)

The dairy industry benefits from the oversupply pattern of raw milk, and the cost dividend is expected to continue[6]:

• Investment Logic
  : Raw milk prices fluctuate at the bottom, leading dairy enterprises see expanded gross profit to sales ratio, and reduced impairment pressure
• Key Timing
  : Supply-demand balance inflection point in H2 2026
• Recommended Targets
  : Yili Group (high valuation safety margin), New Dairy (robust growth in low-temperature milk)

The beverage sector continues to enjoy high prosperity, being the sub-sector with the strongest certainty in consumption recovery[6]:

• Recommended Targets
  : Dongpeng Beverage (accelerated national expansion, platformization promotion), Nongfu Spring (stable operation of leading enterprise)

The 2026 Spring Festival holiday is extended to 9 days, and travel bookings have surged 63% year-on-year[7][8], leading to both volume and price growth in the tourism sector:

• Core Logic
  :
  • The off-set Spring Festival effect leads to a strong start for Q1 2026
  • The tourism sector bears strategic expectations of boosting consumption, with continuous policy support
  • OTA platforms, as key channels for policy subsidies, have solid barriers
• Recommended Targets
  : China Duty Free (duty-free leader), CYTS (comprehensive tourism services), Huangshan Tourism (direct benefits from scenic spots)

Aviation stocks performed strongly today, with China Eastern Airlines surging 5.36%[7]:

• Positive Factors
  : Recovery of travel demand, restricted capacity supply, favorable exchange rate and oil prices
• Recommended Targets
  : China Southern Airlines (recovery of domestic routes), China Eastern Airlines (hub advantage), China Express Airlines (differentiated regional routes)

The hotel sector directly benefits from tourism recovery[9]:

• Recommended Targets
  : BTG Hotels (high recovery elasticity), Jinjiang Hotels (integration advantage of leading enterprise)

Based on the above analysis, a phased allocation strategy is recommended:

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Investment Timeline and Strategy Recommendations │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                 │
│  Jan          Feb              Mar-Apr          May-Jun      Full Year │
│  ████████    ██████████████   ██████████    ██████████         │
│  [Pre-Holiday Layout Period] [Peak Season Verification Period] [Performance Verification Period] [Valuation Recovery Period] │
│                                                                 │
│  • Monitor liquor sales momentum  • Verify Spring Festival sales data   • Annual report verification     • Inventory inflection point          │
│  • Track inventory stocking status  • Verify volume and price growth   • Q1 report       • Price stabilization signal       │
│  • Confirm valuation bottom  • Performance exceeds expectations     • Low base effect   • Fundamental inflection point         │
│                                                                 │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

From the PEG indicator, valuations of major consumer leaders are generally in undervalued territory (PEG<0.3), with favorable safety margins and long-term allocation value.

1. Macroeconomic Risk
   : Economic recovery falls short of expectations, and consumer demand remains weak
2. Industry Risk
   : Slow inventory de-stocking in liquor industry, continued pressure on wholesale prices
3. Policy Risk
   : Consumption stimulus policies are less effective than expected
4. Operational Risk
   : Food safety incidents may affect brand reputation
5. Market Risk
   : Capital rotation leads to the consumer sector continuing to underperform the broader market

[1] National Bureau of Statistics - "Interpretation of CPI and PPI Data for December 2025" (https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202601/t20260109_1962271.html)

[2] Xinhua News Agency - "CPI YoY Growth Continues to Expand, PPI YoY Decline Narrows" (https://www.news.cn/fortune/20260109/3bebf24f3b634ef98f9793528051bbd2/c.html)

[3] Yahoo Finance - "China’s December CPI Rises 0.8%, a Near 3-Year High; 2025 Full-Year Zero Inflation for the First Time in 16 Years" (https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/中國12月CPI升0-8-近3年-2025全年零通脹十六載首次-191500338.html)

[4] Huachuang Securities Food & Beverage Team - "Liquor: Mass Price Segment Shows Strong Resilience" (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-05/doc-inhfhavp8066550.shtml)

[5] Zheshang Securities - "2026 Investment Strategy for Food & Beverage: Liquor Bottoming Out, Mass Goods Grasp New Consumption" (https://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/stock/view/paper.php?symbol=sh000001&reportid=817053746844)

[6] Guosen Securities - "Food & Beverage Weekly (2nd Week of 2026)" (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202601121816953868_1.pdf)

[7] National Business Daily - "Travel ETF Rises Over 3% Intraday Amid Rising Spring Festival Travel Expectations and Policy Support" (https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2026-01-19/4225512.html)

[8] Sina Finance - "Travel ETF Rises Against the Trend, 2026 Spring Festival Holiday to Last 9 Days" (https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/bxjj/2025-11-05/doc-infwifvz4532175.shtml)

[9] Xinhua Finance - "2026 Outlook for Consumer Sector: Intensive Policy Launches to Promote High-Quality Industry Development" (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512313607131948.html)