Baidu Launches Robotaxi Service in Abu Dhabi: Analysis of Global Expansion and Valuation Reassessment

Based on the above data, I provide you with a comprehensive analysis report.

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Apollo Go, the autonomous driving mobility service platform under Baidu, officially obtained the

issued by the Integrated Transport Centre (ITC) of Abu Dhabi on November 10, 2025, becoming the first Chinese autonomous driving enterprise to launch large-scale fully driverless commercial operations outside of China [1][2]. Subsequently, on January 17, 2026, Baidu Apollo Go and Abu Dhabi’s local partner AutoGo officially launched fully autonomous ride-hailing services on Yas Island, open to the public via the AutoGo application [3].

This event marks a major breakthrough in Baidu’s autonomous driving business:

• Time Efficiency
  : Completed the leap from testing to commercial operation in only 8 months
• Geographic Coverage
  : Initial operations cover Yas Island, with plans to expand to Reem Island, Al Maryah Island, and Saadiyat Island in phases
• Fleet Size
  : Targets deploying hundreds of vehicles by 2026 to build Abu Dhabi’s largest fully driverless fleet

Apollo Go is now available in

, including core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Hong Kong, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi [1][4]. To date, Apollo Go’s cumulative autonomous driving mileage has exceeded , with fully driverless mileage surpassing 140 million kilometers, equivalent to circling the Earth 6,000 times; weekly orders exceed 250,000, with cumulative orders breaking , surpassing Google Waymo’s 10 million orders [1][5].

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The Middle East has become a “first-tier” market for Chinese Robotaxi enterprises to expand overseas, and its strategic value is reflected in multiple dimensions:

:

• Middle Eastern cities such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai provide enterprises with a “first-mover advantage” through forward-looking policies such as fully driverless commercial operation licenses and open pilot programs [6]
• Establish “regulatory sandboxes” or introduce special regulations to provide a clear path for fully driverless commercialization
• Significantly reduce institutional transaction costs and align with international standards

:

• High-density overseas cities and high-end travel demand form a differentiated market
• Can directly obtain high unit revenue through Robotaxi services
• Ride-hailing prices in overseas markets are usually several times higher than in China [7]

:

• Middle Eastern cities have relatively simple urban structures and low road complexity
• Strong government support facilitates the rapid deployment of Robotaxi services
• Conducive to accumulating real operational data and feeding back to technological iteration

Baidu’s global expansion has significant competitive barriers:

Competitive Advantage	Specific Performance
Cost Advantage	The cost of the 6th-generation driverless vehicle has been reduced to less than RMB 210,000, which is only 1/7 of Waymo’s operating cost and also lower than Tesla CyberCab’s $30,000 [5][8]
Safety Certification	Apollo ADFM has passed the automotive industry’s highest safety level ASIL D certification, with an actual accident rate only 1/14 that of human drivers [5]
Scale Effect	Cumulative orders reach 17 million, surpassing Waymo’s 10 million, forming a data flywheel effect [1]
Technological Leadership	L4-level autonomous driving large model ranks among the top globally [5]

Baidu’s global expansion presents a clear path:

China Domestic → Southeast Asia (Singapore, Indonesia) → Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia) → Europe (Switzerland, Luxembourg) → North America

:

• Middle East
  : Abu Dhabi and Dubai have obtained commercial operation licenses; partnered with Qatar’s national transportation company
• Southeast Asia
  : Testing has started in Singapore; road tests launched in Seoul, South Korea
• Europe
  : Launched in the Voralp region of Switzerland; road tests initiated in Luxembourg
• North America
  : Established a R&D center in Silicon Valley [4]

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[9][10]:

• Current Stock Price: $149.53 (closing price on January 16, 2026)
• 52-Week High: $154.29
• 52-Week Low: $74.71
• YTD Increase: +78.67%
• 1-Month Increase: +24.10%
• Market Capitalization: $50.71 billion

:

• November 11, 2025: Baidu’s Hong Kong stock (9888.HK) rose 3.02% to HK$129.6; Baidu’s US stock (BIDU) surged 5.05% to $132.32 [2]

[11]:

• January 12, 2026: Raised target price from $158 to $215
• Maintained “Buy” rating
• Core Catalysts:
  Kunlun Chip Business Spin-off
  and
  Robotaxi Business Valuation Reset

[5][8]:

• Given Baidu an overall valuation of
  $79.6 billion
• Apollo Go’s business is valued at approximately
  $40 billion
• Believes the Robotaxi business accounts for over 50% of Baidu’s valuation

[2]:

• US stock has
  55% upside potential
• 2025 non-GAAP PE is only 18x, significantly lower than the target of 28x
• Maintained “Outperform” rating with a target price of $189

Traditional DCF valuation methods often overlook the value of Baidu’s cloud computing, driverless and other businesses. Institutions generally adopt the

for reassessment:

Business Segment	Valuation Contribution	Notes
Core Search Advertising	Base Valuation	Stable cash flow business
Cloud Computing Business	High Growth Premium	AI large model-related demand grows by over 50%
Robotaxi Business	$40 billion	Benchmarked against Waymo’s $75 billion valuation
iQiyi	Independent Valuation	Long-form video platform value
Kunlun Chip	Spin-off Value	Independent valuation of semiconductor business

:

• A Goldman Sachs research report points out that Baidu’s 2025 expected price-to-earnings ratio is only
  8.5x
  , significantly lower than the Chinese internet industry’s average of
  12x
  [5]
• The market has given a negative valuation to Baidu’s loss-making autonomous driving business, failing to anticipate its upcoming inflection point [5]

The active actions of well-known investment institutions reflect high recognition of the prospects of Baidu’s autonomous driving business:

Institution	Position Increase Action	Investment Logic
Cathie Wood	Increased positions 7 consecutive times, with the position value of its funds doubling within 3 months	Waymo, Baidu, and Tesla will be the three Robotaxi enterprises to achieve large-scale deployment within 10 years [5]
Bridgewater Associates	Increased holdings from 200,000 shares to 2.1 million shares in Q1, a 10x increase	Strongly optimistic about Baidu’s prospects [5]
Fidelity Investments	Increased holdings by nearly 10x	Recognizes the valuation reassessment of AI ecosystem value [5]

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Baidu’s financial situation provides solid support for the expansion of its autonomous driving business [9][12]:

Financial Indicator	Value	Evaluation
Net Cash Reserves	Over RMB 80 billion	Abundant cash reserves
Long-term Investments	RMB 133 billion	Strong strategic investment capability
Annual Free Cash Flow	Approximately RMB 20 billion	Strong self-sustaining cash generation capability
Current Ratio	1.91	Good short-term solvency
Debt Risk	Low Risk	Financially conservative and stable

Robin Li, CEO of Baidu, stated on the earnings call that Apollo Go has first achieved

in Wuhan, with ride prices over 30% cheaper than first-tier cities in China [7].

:

1. Ride-hailing prices in overseas markets are usually several times higher than in China
2. Cost advantages can bring stronger unit economic benefits in most major global cities
3. Scale effect + technological iteration + cost reduction form a positive cycle

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Catalyst	Expected Impact	Time Window
Large-scale Overseas Robotaxi Operations	Valuation Reassessment	2026
Kunlun Chip Business Spin-off	Unlock Hidden Value	TBD
Hong Kong Main Board Listing Upgrade	Expand Investor Base	TBD
AI Large Model Commercialization Breakthrough	Cloud Computing Business Growth	Ongoing
Accelerated Policy Liberalization	Robotaxi Profitability Inflection Point	2026-2027

Risk Type	Specific Risk	Impact Level
Geopolitical Risk	Impact of China-US Relations	Medium-High
Localization Adaptation Risk	Cultural Differences, Data Compliance	Medium
Competitive Risk	Competition from Waymo, Tesla, Cruise	Medium
Technological Risk	Technological Iteration Falls Short of Expectations	Low
Regulatory Risk	Policy Changes in Various Countries	Medium

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1. Great Strategic Significance
   : Baidu’s Robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi marks the first time a Chinese autonomous driving enterprise has launched large-scale fully driverless commercial operations overseas, which is an important milestone in global expansion.
2. Valuation Reassessment Window Opened
   : With Apollo Go’s successful launch in overseas markets, coupled with expectations of the Kunlun Chip business spin-off, Baidu is facing a historic opportunity for valuation reconstruction. Analysts generally believe that the current stock price is significantly undervalued.
3. Solid Competitive Advantages
   : Baidu has established significant barriers in three aspects: cost (only 1/7 of Waymo’s), safety (accident rate is 1/14 that of human drivers), and scale (order volume exceeds Waymo’s by 70%).
4. Increased Institutional Recognition
   : Continuous position increases by well-known institutions such as Cathie Wood and Bridgewater Associates indicate that the market’s perception of Baidu’s autonomous driving value is undergoing a fundamental shift.

Based on current market data and institutional target prices:

Valuation Scenario	Target Price	Upside Potential
Conservative Estimate	$110-$140	-10% to -5%
Base Case Scenario	$160-$189	7% to 26%
Optimistic Scenario	$200-$215	34% to 44%

is at the lower end of the reasonable valuation range, with good margin of safety and upside potential.

For investors focusing on Baidu’s autonomous driving business, it is recommended to pay attention to the following catalysts:

• Progress of Apollo Go’s overseas operation expansion
• Developments of Kunlun Chip business spin-off
• Release of Q4 earnings report on February 17, 2026
• Progress of Hong Kong Main Board listing upgrade
• Commercialization progress of AI large models

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[1] CLS Network - “Competing in the Middle East! Baidu, Pony.ai, etc. Seize the Robotaxi Blue Ocean” (https://www.cls.cn/detail/2197124)

[2] Securities Times - “Baidu’s Apollo Go Obtains Fully Driverless Commercial Operation License in Abu Dhabi, Stock Price Rises Over 3%” (https://stcn.com/article/detail/3488636.html)

[3] PR Newswire - “Baidu’s Apollo Go and K2’s AutoGo Commence Fully Autonomous Ride-Hailing Service on Yas Island” (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/baidus-apollo-go-and-k2s-autogo-commence-fully-autonomous-ride-hailing-service-on-yas-island-announce-phased-expansion-across-abu-dhabi-302663468.html)

[4] Tencent News - “Didi, Baidu, etc. Take Collective Action!” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251117A02KZ000)

[5] OFweek - “$79.6 Billion? Autonomous Driving Breaks Out, It’s Time for a Valuation Reassessment of Baidu” (https://mp.ofweek.com/ai/a856714155567)

[6] China Business Network - “Didi, Baidu, etc. Take Collective Action!” (https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20251117A02KZ000)

[7] Baidu 2025 Q2 Earnings Call

[8] The Paper - “Robotaxi Trillion-Dollar Market Ignited! Baidu Reassessed to $79.6 Billion” (https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_31103165)

[9] Jinling AI - Company Financial Data (BIDU)

[10] Yahoo Finance - “Benchmark Raises Baidu (BIDU) Price Target to $215” (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benchmark-raises-baidu-bidu-price-203639550.html)

[11] MarketBeat - “Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) Hits New 1-Year High” (https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/baidu-nasdaqbidu-hits-new-1-year-high-heres-why-2026-01-12/)

[12] Jinling AI - Financial Analysis Data (BIDU)