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Analysis of the Impact of the CSRC's 2026 "Stability First" Policy on A-Share Investment Strategies

#政策分析 #证监会 #A股 #投资策略 #资本市场 #慢牛行情 #长期投资
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January 19, 2026

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Based on the spirit of the 2026 CSRC System Work Conference and market analysis perspectives, I systematically analyze the impact of the “Stability First” policy tone on A-share market investment strategies.


Analysis of the Impact of the CSRC’s 2026 “Stability First” Policy on A-Share Investment Strategies
I. Interpretation of the Core Policy Essence

On January 15, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held its 2026 System Work Conference, clearly listing “

Uphold stability first, consolidate the market’s steady and positive momentum
” as the top priority task[1][2]. Compared with 2025, the 2026 policy statement has been optimized from “Uphold stability while pursuing progress, and use progress to promote stability” to “
Uphold stability while pursuing progress, improve quality and efficiency
”. Against the backdrop of a growing bull market atmosphere in A-shares, this highlights the emphasis on “high-quality development of the capital market”[3].

Policy Core Objectives
:

  • Focus on the core work of risk prevention, strengthened regulation, and promoting high-quality development
  • Continue to deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing
  • Improve the inclusiveness, adaptability, competitiveness, and attractiveness of the system
  • Strive to achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity

II. Specific Impacts on A-Share Market Investment Strategies
(1) Shift in Investment Philosophy: From “Fast Bull” to “Slow Bull”

The CSRC clearly stated that it will “

Resolutely prevent sharp fluctuations in the market
”, and the policy orientation clearly points to cultivating a “slow bull” and “long bull” market trend. Research from Caixin Securities points out that the “slow bull” and “long bull” are the “high-quality bull market”, which can better stabilize market expectations and achieve win-win results for all types of market participants[3].

Strategy Implications
:

  • Investors should establish the concept of
    long-term investment and value investment
  • Avoid short-term speculative behaviors
  • Focus on high-quality targets with solid fundamentals, and reduce chasing rallies and selling on declines
(2) Optimization of Capital Structure: Guiding “Long-Term Capital for Long-Term Investment”

The conference emphasized “

Vigorously cultivate the market ecosystem of ‘long-term capital for long-term investment’
”, with specific measures including[1][2]:

  • Continue to deepen the reform of public funds
  • Continuously expand channels and methods for medium- and long-term capital sources
  • Launch various products and risk management tools suitable for long-term investment
  • Actively guide long-term investment, rational investment, and value investment

Strategy Implications
:

  • It is expected that
    passive products represented by ETFs will continue to develop at an accelerated pace
    [3]
  • Pay attention to the allocation direction of medium- and long-term funds such as social security funds and pension funds
  • The proportion of institutional investors is expected to further increase, and market volatility is expected to decrease
(3) Analysis of Sector Investment Opportunities
Sector Policy Impact Investment Strategy Recommendations
ChiNext Board
Launch and implement the deepening of ChiNext Board reform, and activate the third set of standards Focus on tech innovation enterprises, especially growth companies that fit the positioning of the ChiNext Board
STAR Market
Continue to promote the implementation of STAR Market reform, and the “1+6” policy has been put in place Focus on the allocation value of leading enterprises on the STAR Market
Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE)/New Third Board
Promote integrated high-quality development Focus on specialized, sophisticated, unique, and new enterprises, as well as valuation repair opportunities
REITs
Steadily promote the smooth implementation of commercial real estate REITs pilots Focus on allocation opportunities for high-quality asset REITs
(4) Changes in Regulatory Environment

In 2025, the CSRC investigated and handled 701 securities and futures violation cases throughout the year, with fines and confiscations totaling RMB 15.47 billion[2]. Regulatory law enforcement will be further tightened in 2026:

Key Crackdown Behaviors
[1][2]:

  • Financial fraud
  • Price manipulation
  • Insider trading
  • Excessive speculation

Strategy Implications
:

  • Stay away from theme speculation targets without fundamental support
  • Focus on high-quality companies with standardized information disclosure and transparent finances
  • Attach importance to corporate governance level and compliance status
(5) Counter-Cyclical Adjustment Mechanism

The conference clearly stated “

Strengthen market monitoring and early warning in an all-round way, and promptly carry out counter-cyclical adjustments
”[1][2]. On January 14, 2026, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges raised the minimum margin requirement for investors’ margin purchases from 80% to 100%[3].

Strategy Implications
:

  • Market leverage ratio will be effectively controlled
  • The risk of excessive leverage in margin trading will decrease
  • Investors should pay attention to controlling the leverage ratio and avoid excessive borrowing

III. Guidance of the Five Key Tasks in 2026 on Investment Strategies
Task 1: Uphold Stability First

Core Measures
:

  • Strengthen market monitoring and early warning in an all-round way
  • Strengthen transaction supervision and information disclosure supervision
  • Seriously investigate and punish illegal acts such as excessive speculation and even market manipulation

Investment Impact
: Market operation will be more standardized, and the investment environment will continue to improve

Task 2: Persist in Reform Breakthroughs

Core Measures
:

  • Launch and implement the deepening of ChiNext Board reform
  • Continue to promote the implementation of STAR Market reform
  • Improve the convenience and flexibility of refinancing
  • Promote the bond market to improve quality, adjust structure, and expand volume
  • Ensure the smooth implementation of commercial real estate REITs pilots

Investment Impact
: The functions of the multi-level capital market will be further exerted, and investment options will be more abundant

Task 3: Uphold Strict Law-Based Regulation

Core Measures
:

  • Resolutely crack down on malicious illegal acts such as financial fraud, price manipulation, and insider trading
  • Promote the implementation of more typical cases such as special representative litigation and advance compensation
  • Strengthen technology-enabled supervision and improve regulatory penetration

Investment Impact
: Market fairness will be enhanced, and the phenomenon of bad money driving out good money will be reduced

Task 4: Consolidate Foundations

Core Measures
:

  • Accelerate the introduction of the listed company supervision regulations
  • Fully implement the newly revised corporate governance guidelines for listed companies
  • Improve institutional arrangements such as dividend repurchases, equity incentives, and employee stock ownership
  • Stimulate the vitality of the M&A and restructuring market

Investment Impact
: The quality of listed companies will be improved, and the dividend return mechanism will be improved

Task 5: Strengthen the Domestic Market

Core Measures
:

  • Promote the implementation of the qualified foreign investor optimization plan
  • Expand the scope of opening up of specific futures varieties
  • Improve the convenience of cross-border investment and financing

Investment Impact
: Foreign capital participation will increase, and market liquidity will improve


IV. Summary of Investment Strategy Recommendations
(1) Industry Allocation Recommendations

Key Focus Areas
:

  1. Tech Innovation Sector
    : Investment opportunities brought by the deepened reform of the ChiNext Board and STAR Market
  2. High-Dividend Value Stocks
    : Steady return targets under the improved dividend repurchase system
  3. New Energy/High-End Manufacturing
    : Advantageous industries supported by high-quality development policies
  4. High-Quality REITs
    : New asset allocation options brought by commercial real estate REITs pilots

Avoidance Directions
:

  • Theme speculation targets without fundamental support
  • Companies with questionable financial status and non-standard information disclosure
  • Targets with high leverage and excessive reliance on margin trading
(2) Investment Style Recommendations
Dimension Recommendation
Investment Cycle
Extend holding period, reduce short-term frequent trading
Position Structure
Balanced allocation, focus on both value and growth
Risk Management
Moderately control position size, avoid excessive leverage
Research Focus
Strengthen fundamental research, focus on corporate governance quality
(3) Risk Warnings
  • Domestic macroeconomic recovery pace falls short of expectations
  • Risk of overseas economic recession
  • Risk of overheating in certain sectors
  • Bubble risk in hot fields such as artificial intelligence[3]

V. Conclusion

The CSRC’s 2026 “Stability First” policy tone sets the overall tone of “stability while pursuing progress, improving quality and efficiency” for the A-share market. Under this policy framework:

  1. The market environment will be more standardized
    : Regulatory law enforcement continues to strengthen, and transaction fairness is improved
  2. Capital structure continues to be optimized
    : The ecosystem of “long-term capital for long-term investment” is gradually taking shape, and market stability is enhanced
  3. Institutional reform dividends are released
    : Deepened reform of the ChiNext Board and STAR Market brings structural opportunities
  4. Investment philosophy returns to value
    : Long-term investment and value investment become the mainstream

Investors should conform to the policy orientation, establish the concept of rational investment and value investment, and pay attention to risk control while seizing structural opportunities to obtain steady long-term returns.


References

[1] Stability First! CSRC Deploys Five Key Tasks for 2026, People’s Daily Online, January 16, 2026

[2] Uphold “Stability” First in 2026 to Consolidate the Steady and Positive Momentum of the Capital Market, CCTV News, January 17, 2026

[3] Strategy Comment Report: “Slow Bull” and “Long Bull” are the “High-Quality Bull Market”, Caixin Securities Research, Sina Finance, January 18, 2026

[4] CSRC Deploys 2026 Work, Focus on Ten New Formulations and Phrases, Eastmoney, January 16, 2026

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Insights are generated using AI models and historical data for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.