Analysis of NASA’s Artemis II Mission Impact on Aerospace Industry Chain Companies' Performance and Valuation

Based on the collected data, let me generate a detailed professional analysis report.

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NASA’s Artemis II crewed circumlunar mission has entered a critical preparation phase, with a planned launch no earlier than February 6, 2026 [1]. This will be the first crewed deep space mission by the U.S. in over 50 years, utilizing the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. The mission will carry 4 astronauts on a 10-day round-trip circumlunar flight, reaching a maximum distance of 4,600 miles from the far side of the Moon [2].

The main contractors involved in the mission include:

• Lockheed Martin Corporation
  (Lockheed Martin, NYSE: LMT): Prime contractor for the Orion spacecraft
• The Boeing Company
  (NYSE: BA): Contractor for the SLS rocket core stage and upper stage
• Northrop Grumman Corporation
  (NYSE: NOC): Supplier of SLS rocket solid rocket boosters

Lockheed Martin is the contractor responsible for core hardware manufacturing in the Artemis program. According to the company’s latest financial data, its space business segment achieved revenue of $3.36 billion in Q3 2025, accounting for 18.0% of the company’s total revenue [0]. On May 6, 2025, the company announced that it had completed assembly and testing of the Orion spacecraft and officially delivered it to NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) team [3].

• May 2025: Lockheed Martin completes Orion spacecraft delivery
• Late 2025 to early 2026: NASA conducts propellant loading, installs launch abort system and fairing
• February 2026: Planned launch window opens

According to data disclosed by NASA’s Office of Inspector General (OIG), Lockheed Martin has secured a continuing contract for the development of the Orion spacecraft through the Artemis VIII mission [4]. This long-term contract arrangement provides stable revenue visibility for the company.

Metric	Value	Industry Comparison
Market Capitalization	$135.98 billion	Industry Leader
P/E Ratio	32.16x	Above Industry Average
Revenue (TTM)	$73.3 billion	-
Net Profit Margin	5.73%	-
ROE	68.48%	Excellent

The Boeing Company is responsible for the manufacturing of the SLS rocket’s core stage and Exploration Upper Stage (EUS). However, Boeing’s participation in the Artemis program is accompanied by significant financial risks and execution challenges.

According to the NASA OIG report, Boeing’s core stage contract covers the Artemis III to VI missions, with a total value of approximately $3.2 billion (2019-2028) [4]. The upper stage contract, valued at approximately $9.7 billion (2007-2025), is for the Artemis IV mission [4].

Boeing is currently facing severe financial pressure, with the latest quarterly financial report showing:

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): -$7.47, significantly below expectations
• Net Profit Margin: -12.20%
• Free Cash Flow: -$14.398 billion
• Negative P/E ratio (-19.03x), reflecting market doubts about the company’s profitability [0]

NASA is evaluating awarding the SLS rocket production and operation contract to Deep Space Transport (DST), a newly established joint venture between Boeing and Northrop Grumman [4]. This transition may bring uncertainty to Boeing, but also creates long-term cooperation opportunities.

Northrop Grumman is responsible for the production of the SLS rocket’s solid rocket boosters. In December 2025, the company was awarded a $3.362 billion contract to produce 10 Space Shuttle-era steel-cased boosters for the Artemis IV to VIII missions, as well as to develop new composite boosters for Artemis IX and subsequent missions [4].

Metric	Value	Evaluation
Market Capitalization	$95.18 billion	-
P/E Ratio	23.75x	Reasonable
Net Profit Margin	9.82%	Excellent
Free Cash Flow	$2.621 billion	Positive
ROE	26.04%	Good

Based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, the valuation analysis of the three companies shows:

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Upside from Current Price
Conservative	$732.07	+25.7%
Base	$1,192.78	+104.8%
Optimistic	$3,100.15	+432.3%
Probability-Weighted Value	$1,675.00	+187.6%

The current stock price of $582.43 is close to the reasonable range under the conservative scenario, but the base scenario shows approximately 105% upside potential [5].

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Upside from Current Price
Conservative	$1,110.29	+66.5%
Base	$2,212.18	+231.7%
Optimistic	$40,027.87	Extreme
Probability-Weighted Value	$14,450.11	+2,066.8%

The current stock price of $666.90 shows signs of undervaluation, with 66.5% upside potential under the conservative scenario [5].

• Current Price: $582.43
• Trend: Upward (breakout to be confirmed)
• Key Resistance Level: $582.93
• Next Target Level: $598.66
• Support Level: $543.44
• Beta Coefficient: 0.24 (low volatility characteristic) [5]

The K value of 94.5 and D value of 88.8 are in the overbought zone, and short-term adjustment pressure may occur [5].

Company	5-Day Gain	1-Month Gain	6-Month Gain	1-Year Gain
LMT	+6.10%	+23.88%	+25.53%	+15.04%
BA	+5.72%	+18.92%	+8.00%	+41.08%
NOC	+6.94%	+19.19%	+28.49%	+32.20%

The stock prices of all three companies have shown strong upward trends recently, reflecting market optimism about the Artemis mission and the defense sector.

• The Orion spacecraft business accounts for 100% of the space segment’s revenue, and is the core product line of the company’s space strategy
• Future Artemis missions (III-VIII) will continue to bring revenue contributions
• The company has committed to reducing manufacturing costs while maintaining quality, which may improve long-term profit margins [3]

• The SLS rocket business belongs to the defense/space security segment (Q3 2025 revenue of $6.9 billion)
• Revenue contribution is significant, but execution risks are high
• The 737 MAX door plug incident and financial difficulties may affect market confidence in the company [6]

• The solid rocket booster business belongs to the space systems segment (Q3 2025 revenue of $2.7 billion)
• The $3.362 billion contract covers through 2031, providing high revenue certainty
• The company is in a midstream position, capturing value from the Artemis program without bearing major hardware integration risks [7]

Company	Order Visibility	Growth Driver Sources
LMT	High (through Artemis VIII)	Long-term NASA contracts, cost optimization
BA	Medium (transition period)	EPOC contract, but facing execution challenges
NOC	High (through Artemis IX)	Booster upgrades, new composite materials

• Launch Delay Risk:
  Artemis II has been delayed multiple times; any further delay may affect market sentiment and company valuations
• Technical Failure Risk:
  The first crewed flight of the Orion spacecraft and SLS rocket carries inherent risks
• Budget Risk:
  NASA’s budget is affected by political factors, which may impact contractor revenues

• Persistent cash flow crisis and negative free cash flow
• Litigation and reputational risks arising from the 737 MAX door plug incident
• Free cash flow of -$14.398 billion, fragile financial condition [0]

• A P/E ratio of 32.16x indicates overvaluation
• KDJ and RSI indicators are in the overbought zone, with technical correction risks [5]
• The Trump administration may restrict stock buybacks and dividends for defense contractors [8]

• The optimistic scenario assumptions in the DCF model may be overly aggressive
• Changes in the interest rate environment may affect the discount rate and valuation multiples
• The Artemis mission roadmap may change with policy adjustments

• Composite Rating:
  Buy (based on 54.1% analyst buy ratings)
• Consensus Target Price:
  $550.00 (current price is slightly above the target)
• Investment Rationale:
  The core developer position of the Orion spacecraft is solid, and long-term NASA contracts provide revenue certainty. However, current valuation is relatively high; it is recommended to wait for a technical correction before accumulating positions on dips.

• Composite Rating:
  Hold to Buy (based on 65.4% analyst buy ratings)
• Consensus Target Price:
  $263.50 (current price of $247.68 is 6.4% below the target)
• Investment Rationale:
  The core contractor position for the SLS rocket provides revenue exposure, but the company’s financial difficulties and execution risks pose significant uncertainties. Suitable for risk-tolerant investors.

• Composite Rating:
  Buy (based on 57.1% analyst buy ratings)
• Consensus Target Price:
  $707.00 (current price of $666.90 is 6.0% below the target)
• Investment Rationale:
  The booster business provides stable revenue, financial condition is healthy, and valuation is relatively reasonable. It has the most attractive risk-reward ratio among the three core contractors.

1. Artemis II Mission Milestone:
   Success of the mission will validate U.S. crewed deep space capabilities, lay the foundation for subsequent commercial and military space projects, and may drive a revaluation of the entire industry chain.
2. Contract Structure Differences:
   Lockheed Martin directly benefits from the continuous development of the Orion spacecraft; Northrop Grumman’s booster contracts provide stable cash flow; Boeing faces a complex high-risk, high-reward situation.
3. Valuation Attractiveness Ranking:
   NOC > LMT > BA (based on current valuation levels and risk-reward ratios)
4. Catalyst Events:
   • February 2026 launch window
   • Artemis III lunar landing mission (2027)
   • EPOC contract award decision
   • New administration’s defense budget policy

NASA’s Artemis II mission marks a major revival of U.S. crewed space exploration, with multi-dimensional positive impacts on related aerospace industry chain companies. Lockheed Martin demonstrates strong growth momentum supported by long-term NASA contracts through its core position in the Orion spacecraft; Northrop Grumman is a defensive investment choice with robust financials and clear order visibility; Boeing, despite facing execution risks, still has significant exposure to space business through its core contractor position for the SLS rocket. From a valuation perspective, all three companies have varying degrees of upside potential, but investors need to make comprehensive decisions based on mission execution risks, company financial conditions, and technical indicators. It is recommended to focus on Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, and consider increasing exposure to Boeing only after its financial condition stabilizes further.

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[0] Jinling API - Corporate Financial Data and Real-Time Market Quotes
[1] Space.com - “NASA’s Artemis 2 moon mission: Live updates” (https://www.space.com/news/live/nasa-artemis-2-moon-mission-updates)
[2] CompositesWorld - “Lockheed Martin completes Orion development for Artemis II” (https://www.compositesworld.com/news/lockheed-martin-completes-orion-development-for-artemis-ii)
[3] Lockheed Martin Official News - “Signed, Sealed, Delivered: Lockheed Martin Finalizes Orion for NASA’s Artemis II Mission” (https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2025/lockheed-martin-finalizes-orion-for-artemis-ii.html)
[4] NASA OIG - “NASA’s Transition of the Space Launch System to a New Contract Structure” (https://oig.nasa.gov/docs/IG-24-001.pdf)
[5] Jinling API - DCF Valuation Model and Technical Analysis
[6] GuruFocus - “Boeing (BA) Secures Major Defense Contract Worth $25.36 Billion” (https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4116191/boeing-ba-secures-major-defense-contract-worth-2536-billion)
[7] 247wallst - “Here’s How to Profit From NASA’s Artemis Moon Missions” (https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/01/16/heres-how-to-profit-from-nasas-artemis-moon-missions/)
[8] The Motley Fool - “1 Stock I’d Buy Before Lockheed Martin in 2026” (https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/01/18/1-stock-id-buy-before-lockheed-martin-in-2026/)