In-Depth Analysis of the Duopoly Pattern and the Impact of Cold Repair Production Cuts in the Photovoltaic Glass Industry

Now I will write a systematic and comprehensive analysis report on the photovoltaic glass industry.

---

The global photovoltaic glass industry presents a prominent

, with Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) and Flat Glass (06865.HK/601865.SH) firmly ranking as the top two in the industry [1][2]. According to data from the China Business Industry Research Institute, Xinyi Solar’s photovoltaic glass daily production capacity reached 32,200 tons in 2024, ranking first globally; Flat Glass ranked second with a production capacity of 23,000 tons/day [1]. The combined production capacity of the two companies accounts for approximately of global photovoltaic glass production capacity, a decrease from the previous high of 53%, but they still hold an absolute dominant position [3].

From a historical evolution perspective, the formation of the duopoly pattern has gone through three phases:

• 2018-2020
  : Period of rapid share growth for the duopoly, with leading enterprises expanding production through technological and scale advantages
• 2021-2023
  : Period of stable share, maintaining a combined market share of over 50%
• 2024 to present
  : Period of slight share decline, mainly due to the rapid expansion of second and third-tier enterprises amid the industry’s capacity expansion wave

Competitive Advantage	Xinyi Solar	Flat Glass
Daily Production Capacity (2024)	32,200 tons	23,000 tons/day
Global Market Share	~29%	~21%
Gross Profit Margin Advantage	10 percentage points higher than second and third-tier enterprises	10 percentage points higher than second and third-tier enterprises
Furnace Scale	Mainly large furnaces (1,000 tons+)	Mainly large furnaces (1,000 tons+)
Overseas Layout	2,000 tons/day capacity in Vietnam	2,000 tons/day in Vietnam + Indonesia project
Raw Material Self-Sufficiency	Layout of soda ash and quartz sand	Quartz sand mining rights layout

:

1. Large-Scale Procurement Advantage
   : Leading enterprises have significant procurement volume, enabling substantial discount benefits; soda ash procurement costs are 5%-8% lower than those of small and medium-sized enterprises [3].

2. Large Furnace Technology Advantage
   : The main furnaces of Xinyi and Flat Glass are mostly over 1,000 tons/day, while old small furnaces are mostly 500-700 tons. Large furnaces have 15%-20% lower unit energy consumption and 3-5 percentage points higher yield rate [3].

3. Yield Rate Difference
   : The photovoltaic glass yield rate of leading enterprises can reach over 85%, while that of second and third-tier enterprises is only 78%-82%, further widening the cost gap [3].

4. Financial Strength
   : During the deep industry loss period in 2024, leading enterprises maintained operations through financing capabilities and operating cash flow, while second and third-tier enterprises faced cash flow crises [4].

---

After the revision of the “Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry” in December 2020, photovoltaic rolled glass was exempted from formulating capacity replacement plans, which

[5]. A large amount of production capacity was released between 2021 and 2024:

Time Node	Cumulative Production Capacity (tons/day)	YoY Growth Rate
End of 2020	~32,000	-
End of 2021	~46,200	+44%
End of 2022	~64,300	+39%
End of 2023	~92,000	+43%
End of 2024	~120,870	+31%

As of the end of December 2024, 152 furnaces and 604 production lines have been put into operation, with a production capacity of 120,870 tons/day [1][2]. However, at the same time, the monthly peak production scheduling of photovoltaic modules in 2024 was only 57.9GW, which is seriously mismatched with production capacity.

Photovoltaic glass prices experienced a

in 2024 [5]:

• January-April 2024
  : Prices rose slightly, with 3.2mm coated glass increasing from 22 yuan/square meter to 26.25 yuan/square meter. Benefiting from the recovery of module production scheduling in Q1 2024 and expectations of an installation rush in 2024 [5].

• May-September 2024
  : Prices
  declined unilaterally
  to 19.5 yuan/square meter, a drop of 25.7%. The main reasons include: concentrated ignition of a large number of completed furnaces (about 15,000 tons/day of capacity released in early Q2), sequential decline in module production scheduling in Q3, and high inventory across the industrial chain [5].

• October-December 2024
  : Prices gradually stabilized, and an inventory inflection point emerged. In early September, the top ten photovoltaic glass manufacturers held an emergency meeting and reached a consensus on furnace shutdown and production cuts, and inventory days began to decline in November [6].

Starting from Q3 2024, the photovoltaic glass industry entered a

[4][6]:

• Flat Glass Q3 Performance
  : Revenue was approximately 4.2 billion yuan, net loss was 203 million yuan, and gross profit margin was only 5.97%, a year-on-year decrease of 18.55 percentage points [4]
• Flat Glass Q4 Performance
  : Expected net loss of 220-358 million yuan, with gross profit margin further dropping to a historical low of 2.88% [4]
• Full-Year Performance
  : Flat Glass’s 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 938-1,076 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61%-66% [4]

Xinyi Solar also faced pressure, entering a deep loss state in H2 2024 [3]. Second and third-tier enterprises are even facing

, and some enterprises are unable to carry out cold repairs [3].

---

Photovoltaic glass uses a

, and once a furnace is ignited, it is difficult to stop production easily. However, driven by severe losses, the industry launched the largest production reduction campaign in its history:

:

• Annual cold repair shutdown capacity:
  22,890 tons/day
• Including confirmed cold repairs: approximately 25,630 tons/day (full year 2024)
• New cold repairs since 2025: approximately 2,800 tons/day (as of January 9)

August-December 2024 was the peak period for cold repairs:

• August cold repairs: 2,500 tons/day
• September cold repairs: 3,500 tons/day
• October cold repairs: 3,200 tons/day
• November cold repairs: 4,500 tons/day
• December cold repairs: 4,190 tons/day

According to research from Sinolink Securities [3][6], current cold repair capacity can be divided into three categories:

Category	Capacity Scale	Resume Production Capability Assessment
Furnace Mouth Blocking Production Cuts	~11,000 tons/day	Can resume quickly (days to weeks)
Old Small Furnaces	~7,000 tons/day	Low willingness and capability to resume production
Furnaces with Resume Production Conditions	~9,050 tons/day	Requires capital restoration, 2-3 months ramp-up period

:

1. Most furnaces of second and third-tier enterprises are small furnaces below 700 tons/day; resuming production at the current price level will result in losses, so their willingness and capability to resume production are low [3].
2. Igniting and resuming production of cold-repaired furnaces requires a 3-6 month ramp-up period, during which ramp-up costs must be borne [3].
3. The 11,000 tons/day capacity from furnace mouth blocking has the capability of
   rapid recovery in the short term
   (days to weeks), and is a source of supply elasticity after price rebounds [6].

Time	Capacity Utilization Rate	Remarks
2023	80%	Overcapacity initially emerged
2024	78.8%	Deep overcapacity, dropped to a lower level at the end of the year
2025E	80%	Expected to bottom out and rebound

In December 2024, photovoltaic glass output was 2.0521 million tons, equivalent to 46.79GW of module demand, which was basically balanced with the monthly module output of 45.31GW [6]. As of the end of December 2024, operating production capacity was 95,190 tons/day, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [2].

---

: Photovoltaic glass prices are expected to [6].

:

1. Continuous Contraction on the Supply Side
   :
   • Approximately 1,200 tons/day of production lines are expected to undergo cold repair before the Spring Festival [6]
   • Second and third-tier enterprises have low willingness to resume production; leading enterprises dominate the pace of production resumption
   • In January 2025, the operating daily melting volume was approximately 89,690 tons; after excluding the impact of furnace mouth blocking, effective capacity was only 78,690 tons

2. Seasonal Recovery on the Demand Side
   :
   • Global photovoltaic module demand is expected to reach 600-650GW in 2025 [3]
   • Average monthly module production scheduling is 50-54GW
   • Module production scheduling will recover rapidly after the Spring Festival

3. Supply-Demand Gap Calculation
   :
   • If another 1,200 tons/day undergo cold repair before the Spring Festival, effective capacity will drop to 77,490 tons/day
   • Corresponding to monthly module demand of 42.41GW
   • After the Spring Festival, module production scheduling will rise to over 50GW, resulting in a supply gap

According to calculations by Sinolink Securities [3], there are three scenarios for photovoltaic glass supply in 2025:

Scenario	Peak Supply (10,000 tons/day)	Corresponding Module Demand (GW/month)	Price Elasticity
Conservative	11.5	62	Medium
Neutral	12.3	67	High
Aggressive	13.6	74	Limited

:

• Conservative scenario: Only large furnaces of first and second-tier enterprises resume production
• Neutral scenario: Some large furnaces of other enterprises resume production
• Aggressive scenario: All except old furnaces below 700 tons/day resume production

The monthly peak module production scheduling in 2024 was 57.9GW, which is expected to reach 65-70GW in 2025 [3]. Considering that photovoltaic glass

(resuming production requires a 2-3 month ramp-up period), prices will have significant upward elasticity if downstream demand grows rapidly.

The 11,000 tons/day capacity from furnace mouth blocking is a key variable in price regulation:

• Upper Limit Suppression
  : If price increases are too large, enterprises can quickly restore furnace mouth blocking capacity
• Lower Limit Support
  : When prices fall below the cost line, enterprises choose to cut production by blocking furnace mouths rather than cold repairs

After all furnace mouth blocking capacity is restored, the industry’s effective capacity will be 88,490 tons/day, corresponding to monthly module demand of 48.43GW, which still cannot meet normal post-holiday production scheduling needs [6]. Therefore,

.

---

1. Financial Strength
   : During the deep industry loss period in 2024, leading enterprises maintained operations and expansion through financing capabilities and operating cash flow. Flat Glass’s 2024 operating cash inflow was 5.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 200.65% [4].

2. Technical Barriers
   : Large furnace technology (over 1,000 tons/day) has become a standard for leading enterprises, which is difficult for second and third-tier enterprises to replicate.

3. Overseas Layout
   : Both Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass have 2,000 tons/day capacity in Vietnam, and Flat Glass also plans to build new furnaces in Indonesia [4], which helps avoid trade barriers.

4. First-Mover Advantage in Industry Self-Discipline
   : Photovoltaic glass is the segment in the photovoltaic industrial chain where
   industry self-discipline was implemented earliest and achieved the best results
   [6], with the duopoly playing a leading role in coordinating production cuts.

1. Trend of Slight Share Decline
   : In January 2025, the combined capacity share of Xinyi + Flat Glass was 44%, a decrease from the previous high of 53% [3]. The main reasons are: - Rapid follow-up of second and third-tier enterprises during the previous aggressive capacity expansion - Central enterprises (such as CSG Holding, Rainbow New Energy) seizing market share through resource advantages

2. Potential Entrants
   : Float glass enterprises such as Kibing Group and Jinjing Technology expanding into photovoltaic glass; some under-construction capacity (approximately 32,050 tons/day) will be released when the market improves [6].

3. Steepening of Cost Curve
   : After old small furnaces are cleared out at an accelerated pace, the industry’s cost curve will become steeper, and the advantages of leading enterprises will become more obvious [3].

Dimension	Assessment	Reasons
Short-Term (Within 1 Year)	Highly Stable	Effective industry self-discipline, losses forcing capacity clearing, leading enterprises’ financial advantages
Medium-Term (1-3 Years)	Relatively Stable	Share may drop slightly to around 40%, but still dominates the market
Long-Term (Over 3 Years)	Uncertain	Depends on industry integration progress, new technology substitution, and policy changes

: The duopoly pattern is .

---

Company	Ticker	Core Logic	Valuation Level
Xinyi Solar	00968.HK	Leading photovoltaic glass enterprise, with 23,200 tons/day operating capacity	PB 0.92X (closing price on January 24, 2025)
Flat Glass	06865.HK	19,400 tons/day operating capacity, increasing overseas layout	PB 1.13X
Flat Glass	601865.SH	Leading A-share photovoltaic glass enterprise with leading capacity	PB 2.17X

1. Photovoltaic installation demand falls short of expectations
   : If the growth rate of global photovoltaic installations slows down and the recovery of module production scheduling is insufficient, it will suppress the magnitude of glass price rebounds.

2. Concentrated commissioning of under-construction capacity
   : Current under-construction capacity is approximately 32,050 tons/day; if it is released in a concentrated manner when the market improves, it will re-intensify supply-demand imbalance [6].

3. Raw material price fluctuations
   : Fluctuations in soda ash and natural gas prices will affect glass costs and profitability.

4. Industry policy risks
   : Relaxation of capacity replacement policies may lead to accelerated launch of new capacity.

5. Subjectivity of calculations
   : The calculation data in this report is based on public information and research institution estimates, and actual data may deviate.

---

1. The duopoly pattern is highly stable in the short term
   : Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass, with scale advantages, cost advantages, financial advantages, and leading positions in industry self-discipline, are expected to continue dominating the photovoltaic glass industry in the next 1-2 years. Although their combined share has dropped from 53% to around 44%, the industry’s CR2 is still far higher than that of other segments.

2. Cold repair production cuts accelerate industry capacity clearing
   : Approximately 22,890 tons/day of capacity underwent cold repair in 2024, and the industry has shifted from “incremental competition” to “stock competition”. Second and third-tier enterprises have low willingness and capability to resume production, creating a time window for leading enterprises to restore profitability.

3. Price inflection point is imminent
   : Against the background of continuous supply contraction and seasonal recovery of demand after the Spring Festival, photovoltaic glass prices are expected to rebound from late Q1 to Q2 2025. Due to relatively rigid capacity (resuming production requires a 2-3 month ramp-up period), prices have significant elasticity.

4. Medium-term supply-demand relations are improving
   : Even under the most aggressive production resumption assumption, the year-on-year growth rate of the industry’s daily melting volume in 2025 is only 3%, far lower than the growth rate of over 30% in 2021-2024. The marginal improvement in supply-demand relations will support an upward shift in the price center.

5. Long-term pattern still needs observation
   : The photovoltaic glass industry has rapid technological iteration (such as ultra-thin glass, BIPV, etc.), and cross-border entry of float glass enterprises may change the competitive pattern in the medium to long term.

---

[1] China Business Industry Research Institute - “In-Depth Research and Development Prospect Investment Forecast Analysis Report on China’s Photovoltaic Glass Industry (2025-2030)” (https://www.sina.com.cn/p/roll/2025-11-17/doc-infxspkh6668849.shtml)

[2] The Paper - “2025 China Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Map and Investment Layout Analysis” (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_31987386)

[3] Sinolink Securities - “Special Research Report on the Photovoltaic Glass Industry” (January 2025) (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H301_AP202501141641912365_1.pdf)

[4] China Development Bank Securities - “Flat Glass (601865.SH): Short-Term Performance Under Pressure, Profitability Expected to Recover in 2025 - 2024 Annual Report Performance Review” (March 2025) (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202504271663124008_1.pdf)

[5] Sinolink Securities - “2024 Price Review of Photovoltaic Glass: Unilateral Decline from May to September, Gradual Stabilization in Q4” (January 2025) (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202501031641796001_1.pdf)

[6] Huatai Securities/Sinolink Securities - “Photovoltaic Glass: Cold Repairs Accelerate Capacity Contraction, Post-Holiday Prices Expected to Rebound” (January 2025) (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202501271642591930_1.pdf)

[7] Sina Finance - “Photovoltaic Glass Oversupply, Flat Glass’s 2024 Net Profit Shrank by Over 1.6 Billion Yuan” (January 2025) (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-01-23/doc-inefyeaw7913929.shtml)

---

: Jinling AI Financial Analysis Team
: January 19, 2026