Analysis of Time Lags in Memory Chip Price Transmission

Memory chip price transmission follows a typical industry chain path:

. This transmission process has significant time lag effects, whose duration is affected by multiple factors including pricing mechanisms, inventory cycles, capacity adjustment speeds, and market structure characteristics.

From the perspective of the 2025 memory chip price hike cycle, price transmission exhibits the typical feature of

. Original manufacturers initiated price increases in March-April 2025, then transmitted downstream through two paths: contract prices and spot prices, ultimately reaching the terminal consumer segment from the second half of 2025 to early 2026, with an overall transmission time lag of approximately [1][2].

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Transmission Segment	Typical Time Lag	Specific Performance
Original Manufacturers → Module Manufacturers	1-4 weeks	Contract prices adjusted quarterly, spot prices respond immediately
Module Manufacturers → Terminal Manufacturers	4-12 weeks	Transmitted based on inventory consumption rhythm
Terminal Manufacturers → Consumers	8-24 weeks	Product pricing adjustments need to consider market acceptance

According to data from Sigmaintell, taking the 12GB+256GB smartphone configuration as an example, memory costs rose 40%-70% from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2025, and this cost pressure is expected to fully manifest in terminal product price increases or configuration adjustments by the third quarter of 2026[3][4].

The memory chip market has a

, with significant differences in transmission time lags between contract prices and spot prices:

:

• Time Lag
  : 1-3 months
• Characteristics
  : Negotiated quarterly/monthly by key clients, price adjustments are relatively lagged but with predictable magnitudes
• Q1 2026 Forecast
  : Contract prices for general-purpose DRAM are expected to rise 55%-60% quarter-over-quarter, while NAND Flash contract prices are expected to rise 33%-38%[5]

:

• Time Lag
  : A few days to 2 weeks
• Characteristics
  : Highly responsive, volatile, first perceived by channel merchants such as those in Huaqiang North
• Typical Case
  : SK Hynix DDR5 256GB server memory modules rose from RMB 27,999 to RMB 47,999 within four months[6]

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Industry chain inventory levels are a core variable affecting transmission time lags. Guotai Fund analysis points out that the industry chain had sufficiently destocked in 2025, with both original manufacturers and downstream clients facing tight inventory levels[7]. In this low-inventory environment:

1. Inventory restocking amplifies price elasticity
   : Once price expectations turn positive, restocking behavior accelerates price transmission
2. Inventory consumption cycle determines lag
   : Terminal manufacturers typically maintain 1-3 months of safety stock, so the transmission time lag is approximately equal to the inventory consumption cycle
3. Structural inventory mismatch
   : Shortages of high-end products such as HBM exacerbate supply pressures in the consumer market

Capacity allocation strategies of original manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron directly affect transmission rhythms:

• Tilting towards high-margin products
  : Original manufacturers prioritize capacity for high-value-added products such as HBM and DDR5, squeezing capacity for traditional DRAM[8]
• Clear supply priorities
  : Server manufacturers > smartphone brands > other categories, with small and medium-sized clients facing longer waiting periods and larger price increases[9]
• Capacity expansion constraints
  : It takes at least 16 months for new manufacturers to move from tape-out to mass production, so capacity cannot be released rapidly in the short term[10]

Manufacturer Type	Transmission Time Lag	Cost Pass-Through Ability
Headline Brands (Apple, Huawei)	2-3 months	Can lock in capacity via long-term agreements, keeping cost increases within 10%
Second-Tier Brands	1-2 months	Partial pass-through, facing compressed profit margins
Small and Medium-Sized Terminal Manufacturers	Immediate	Unable to pass on costs, some forced to exit the market or turn to the used goods market

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According to the latest market data, the transmission in this round of price hike cycle has entered the

:

1. Original Manufacturers (Completed)
   : In the third to fourth quarters of 2025, the three major original manufacturers completed multiple rounds of price increases, with the DRAM price index rising 169% cumulatively and the NAND price index rising 173% cumulatively[11]
2. Module/Testing & Assembly Manufacturers (In Transmission)
   : Testing & assembly capacity utilization is approaching full load, with prices raised by 30% and the first round of price increases initiated[12]
3. Terminal Manufacturers (Just Beginning)
   : From the fourth quarter of 2025 to early 2026, smartphone and PC manufacturers are starting to feel significant cost pressures

:

• Xiaomi and OPPO lowered their 2026 shipment forecasts by over 20%
• Most brands pass on costs through “disguised price increases” (adjusting configurations, reducing discount margins)
• The mainstream starting configuration was adjusted from 16GB to 12GB[13]

:

• Memory costs account for 15%-20% of the BOM; if prices rise by 30%-40%, the impact on the overall BOM will reach 5%-8%
• Price increases are more pronounced for high-end products, with the price gap between 8GB+128GB and 12GB+256GB versions widening from RMB 400-500 to RMB 700-800
• Some PC assembly merchants have reverted to using “small-capacity SSD + large-capacity mechanical hard drive” combinations to reduce costs[14]

:

• In-vehicle memory capacity has increased from 8GB+64GB to 12GB+256GB, with memory costs accounting for over 15% of total costs
• Some automakers plan to reduce memory configurations in entry-level models or postpone the launch of intelligent features[15]

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Looking at memory chip cycles from 1999 to the present, price transmission time lags are typically

, but this cycle shows an extended trend:

• Traditional Cycles
  : Transmission to terminals completed within 1-2 months after price increases start
• Current Cycle
  : Transmission time lag extended to 2-3 months, mainly due to:
  • Structural shortages driven by AI demand
  • HBM capacity squeezing traditional DRAM supply
  • Strengthened supply control strategies by original manufacturers

Sigmaintell predicts that the memory chip price hike cycle may last until

, mainly due to the following reasons:

1. Supply Side
   : Memory capacity expansion cycles take 1-2 years; industry losses in 2023 led to almost no new capacity in 2024-2025, with significant capacity increases expected only from late 2027 to 2028[16]
2. Demand Side
   : Strong and long-term AI demand, with DRAM and NAND consumption in the server segment expected to grow 40%-50% year-over-year
3. Structural Mismatch
   : Capacity expansion of high-end products such as HBM cannot fully fill the gap in traditional products

Institutions generally expect memory prices to remain high throughout 2026, with DRAM bit supply increasing by approximately 15%-20% and demand growing by 20%-25%, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap.

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• Upstream Original Manufacturers
  : Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to benefit from price increases
• Domestic Substitution
  : Enterprises such as ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and GigaDevice Semiconductor see opportunities to expand market share
• Testing & Assembly Segment
  : Tight advanced packaging capacity improves the bargaining power of related enterprises

1. Early Deployment
   : Focus on opportunities in module manufacturers and testing & assembly manufacturers at the initial stage of transmission
2. Focus on Differentiation
   : Terminal manufacturers with brand premiums and supply chain management capabilities are less affected
3. Cycle Tail Risks
   : When transmission is completed and terminals start raising prices, be alert to the risk of demand contraction

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[1] Sina Finance - Layout 2026: Grasp the Context of the “Comprehensive Bull Market”

[2] Sohu - 2026 Market Hotspots Weekly Report (January 5–January 11)

[3] Business Wire - Omdia Semiconductor Market Analysis

[4] Tencent News - A Memory Module Rose by the Price of an iPhone in Half a Month

[5] Sina Finance - Memory Chip Price Hike Wave May Span Entire 2026

[6] Jiemian News - Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo Lower Shipment Forecasts

[7] Everbright Securities - Q3 2025 Electronics Industry Performance Analysis

[8] STCN - Analysis of NAND Shortage at Memory Module Manufacturers

[9] 10jqka - GigaDevice Semiconductor Investor Conference Minutes

[10] SMIC - Investor Conference Minutes

[11] China Flash Market (CFM) - Memory Price Index Data

[12] China Business Journal - Analysis of Price Hikes in the Memory Testing & Assembly Industry

[13] Counterpoint Research - Smartphone Market Report

[14] Omdia - PC Market Shipment Analysis

[15] Sigmaintell - Consumer Electronics Cost Structure Analysis

[16] IC Insights - Memory Chip Capacity Expansion Cycle