In-Depth Research Report on the Memory Chip Industry: Price Hike Cycle and Domestic Substitution Opportunities

Based on the latest market data and in-depth analysis, the following is a systematic research report on the skyrocketing memory chip prices and the impact of ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT)'s listing on the industrial chain:

---

The 2025 memory chip market has entered an unprecedented “super bull market” phase. According to data from TrendForce and the Korea Economic Daily,

:

Product Type	2025 Price Hike	Projected Price Hike in Q1 2026
DDR4 16Gb	1800%	60%-70%
DDR5 16Gb	500%	55%-60%
512Gb NAND Flash	300%	33%-38%

According to Counterpoint Research’s forecast, memory contract prices will continue to climb in Q1 2026, with an expected hike of

, and are expected to rise by another 20% in Q2 [1][2][3].

• The total investment in AI infrastructure by the four major North American cloud service providers (CSPs) including Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon AWS is expected to hit a record high of
  USD 600 billion
  in 2026 [1]
• The consumption of DRAM and NAND flash in AI servers is expected to surge by
  40%-50%
  year-on-year in 2026
• The surging demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) has led to the transfer of traditional DRAM production capacity, exacerbating supply shortages for consumer-grade products

• Global memory chip supply is expected to grow by only
  7%-8%
  in 2026, far lower than the
  20%-25% demand growth rate
  [4]
• The construction cycle for new wafer fabs and packaging capacity is 2-3 years, making it difficult to fundamentally ease the shortage in the short term
• Samsung and SK Hynix have shifted a large amount of production capacity to higher-margin HBM products

The proportion of memory chips in the cost of end products has risen from about to , and exceeds for some high-end models [5]:

• Lenovo has raised prices of laptops priced above 5,000 yuan by 500-1,500 yuan, representing a 5%-10% hike
• Dell and HP plan to raise prices, with a maximum hike of 20%
• The average selling price of smartphones is expected to rise to
  USD 465
  in 2026

---

ChangXin Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. submitted its prospectus to the STAR Market on December 30, 2025, and

, making it a major player in China’s semiconductor hard technology landscape [6][7].

with no controlling shareholder or actual controller. Major shareholders include:

• Qinghui Jidian: 21.67%
• National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II: 8.73%
• Alibaba Cloud Computing: 3.85% (invested 6.1 billion yuan in June 2025)
• 60 shareholders including GigaDevice, Xiaomi, and Tencent

Indicator	2024	2025	Change
Revenue	24.2 billion yuan	55-58 billion yuan	+127%
Net Profit	-9.1 billion yuan	2-3.5 billion yuan	Turnaround from loss to profit
Gross Profit Margin	-	4.63% in H1 2025, reached 35% in Q3	Significantly improved

: Revenue reached 22.9-25.9 billion yuan, net profit reached 8-9.5 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of [6][7][8].

• The world’s 4th largest DRAM enterprise
  , with a market share of approximately
  2.51%
• The
  only
  IDM enterprise in mainland China to achieve mass production of DRAM
• Adopted a “generation-skipping R&D” strategy to complete mass production on its 1st to 4th generation process technology platforms
• Operates
  3 12-inch wafer fabs
  in Hefei and Beijing
• Monthly production capacity doubled from
  100,000 wafers
  in Q1 2024 to
  200,000 wafers
  in Q1 2025 [6][9]

Item	Amount	Proportion
Planned Fundraising	29.5 billion yuan	100%
R&D	9 billion yuan	30.5%
Technological Transformation/Expansion Projects	25.5 billion yuan	69.5%
Equipment Procurement (Estimated)	Approximately 20 billion yuan	Approximately 68%

---

Upstream: EDA Tools + Manufacturing Equipment + Semiconductor Materials
          ↓
Midstream: Wafer Manufacturing (CXMT) - Core segment with the highest barriers
          ↓
Downstream: Packaging & Testing + Memory Modules
          ↓
End Market: Mobile Phones/PCs/Servers/Auto/AI Devices

:

• NAURA Technology
  : Etching and thin film deposition equipment, technology on par with overseas peers, deeply tied to CXMT’s expansion [10]
• AMEC
  : 5nm etcher adopted in advanced production lines, technology has reached international standards [10]
• Huahai Qingke
  : 12-inch CMP equipment with over 60% market share, core supplier for HBM production lines

:

• Yake Technology
  : Global market share of 18% in HBM precursors, exclusive supplier to SK Hynix [11]
• Anji Technology
  : Leader in CMP slurries, with over 20% domestic market share in memory slurries
• Zhengfan Technology
  : Gas and material delivery systems, “no substantial difference” from foreign suppliers [10]

CXMT, as the “source” of the industrial chain, directly benefits from:

• Gross profit margin improvement driven by memory chip price hikes (reached 35% in Q3)
• Market share expansion amid the domestic substitution trend
• Explosive demand for AI server memory

:

• JCET
  : The world’s 3rd largest packaging and testing enterprise, leading HBM packaging yield, certified by NVIDIA [11]
• Tongfu Microelectronics
  : Covers multiple categories of memory packaging and testing, closely cooperates with major memory manufacturers
• Shenzhen Kaifa Technology
  : China’s largest DRAM packaging and testing enterprise, high yield in HBM3 packaging

:

• Longsys
  : Leader in memory modules, Lexar brand memory cards rank 2nd globally, PCIe SSDs for AI servers rank top 10 globally, rose over 15% on January 16, 2026 to hit a record high [12][13]
• BIWIN
  : Integrated packaging and testing, global market share leader in AI glasses memory, net profit expected to surge 427%-520% year-on-year in 2025, hit a 20% daily limit on January 16 [12][13]

• Mobile Phone/PC Manufacturers
  : Facing cost pressure, forced to raise prices
• Automobile Manufacturers
  : Supply chain awareness awakened, accelerating test and adoption of domestic chips
• Cloud Service Providers
  : Alibaba Cloud, Tencent, ByteDance, etc., have become core customers of CXMT

---

Manufacturer	Market Share	Nature
Samsung Electronics	41.54%	Overseas Leader
SK Hynix	34.44%	Overseas Leader
Micron Technology	21.51%	Overseas Leader
ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT)	2.51%	Domestic Substitution Player

The three overseas giants together account for

of the market share, forming a stable CR3 structure [1][6].

:

• Sustained high growth in demand for AI computing power
• Strong policy support for domestic substitution
• Memory chip prices entering a super bull market cycle
• Accelerated technological iteration of CXMT (the technology gap in DDR5 has been shortened to 3-4 years)

:

• Ban on high-end EUV lithography machines, bottlenecks in technological catch-up
• Synchronized expansion of overseas giants, risk of price cycle fluctuations
• The domestic ecosystem still lags behind in high-end materials and equipment
• Intensified market competition, risk of price wars [10]

---

Industrial Chain Segment	Company Name	Core Logic	Benefit Level
Chip Design	GigaDevice	Top 3 in global NOR Flash, synergistic with niche DRAM	★★★★★
Chip Design	Montage Technology	40% global share of DDR5 interface chips, JEDEC standard setter	★★★★★
Packaging & Testing	JCET	Leading HBM packaging yield, certified by NVIDIA	★★★★★
Packaging & Testing	Tongfu Microelectronics	Core beneficiary of memory packaging and testing	★★★★☆
Equipment	NAURA Technology	Etching equipment deeply tied to CXMT	★★★★★
Equipment	AMEC	5nm etcher adopted in advanced production lines	★★★★☆
Materials	Yake Technology	18% global share of HBM precursors	★★★★★
Materials	Anji Technology	Leader in CMP slurries	★★★★☆
Modules	Longsys	Leader in memory modules, top 10 globally in AI server SSDs	★★★★★
Modules	BIWIN	Global leader in AI glasses memory, surging performance	★★★★★

On January 16, 2026, the memory chip concept sector performed strongly [12][13]:

• BIWIN:
  20% daily limit
• Longsys:
  Rose over 15% to hit a record high
• Hunan HSJ Electronics, Puran Microelectronics, Ingenic Semiconductor, etc., followed the upward trend
• The sector saw a net inflow of
  8.839 billion yuan
  from main funds

---

1. Memory chips enter a super bull market
   : 2025 price hike hit a record high, expected to rise another 60%-70% in Q1 2026, and supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist until 2027
2. CXMT IPO is a milestone
   : Marks the transformation of China’s semiconductor industry from “single-point breakthrough” to “full-chain resonance”, a key step in the industrialization of domestic memory chips
3. The entire industrial chain benefits
   : All segments including equipment, materials, packaging and testing, and modules will continue to benefit from CXMT’s expansion and the domestic substitution trend
4. Clear investment window
   : The super cycle of memory chips overlaps with the historic opportunity of domestic substitution, and the memory chip industrial chain is expected to see simultaneous growth in volume and price in 2026

• Risk of cyclical fluctuations in the memory chip industry
• Risk of competition and price wars from overseas giants
• Risk that the localization process of high-end equipment/materials falls short of expectations
• Risk of international geopolitical conflicts

---

[1] Securities Times Network - “Maximum Price Hike of 70%! Two Major Chip Giants, Major Breaking News!” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3572106.html)

[2] AJ Securities - In-Depth Industry Report “Memory Chip Price Hikes to Continue Until 2026” (https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202512221805753876_1.pdf)

[3] Counterpoint Research - Report on the “Super Bull Market” Phase of the Memory Market

[4] Sina Tech - “A Set of Memory Sticks Worth an Apartment in Shanghai: Will 2026 Be the ‘Most Expensive Year’ for Consumer Electronics?” (https://tech.sina.cn/2026-01-18/detail-inhhsscc2347977.d.html)

[5] TrendForce Consulting - Analysis of Memory Chip Cost Proportion

[6] Eastmoney.com - “CITIC Securities: CXMT IPO Application Accepted, Optimistic About Investment Opportunities in Domestic Memory Chain” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512313606365784.html)

[7] Jiemian News - “From 37 Billion Yuan Loss to Profit Turnaround: Insights from CXMT’s IPO” (https://www.jiemian.com/article/13874829.html)

[8] Sina Finance - “From 37 Billion Yuan Loss to Profit Turnaround: Insights from CXMT’s IPO” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-14/doc-inhhfrsx8465630.shtml)

[9] Sina Tech - “More Than Chips: In-Depth Analysis of How CXMT Drives the ‘Takeoff’ of the Entire Memory Industrial Chain” (https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2026-01-13/doc-inhhcxix4900166.shtml)

[10] Jiemian News - Interviews with CXMT’s Supply Chain Enterprises

[11] Eastmoney.com - “2026 High Growth Logic Confirmed, Attached with Core Concept Stocks of the Entire Memory Chip Industrial Chain” (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260117054444893173810)

[12] CLS.cn - “Memory Chip Concept Sector Continues to Strengthen in Afternoon Trading, BIWIN Hits 20% Daily Limit” (https://www.cls.cn/subject/2409)

[13] Securities Times Network - “Resonance of Price Hikes in Memory, Metals, and Batteries: Automakers Launch a ‘Defensive War’ Against Supply Chain Costs” (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3591871.html)

[14] WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) - Global DRAM Market Size Forecast

[15] TrendForce - Memory Chip Price Trend Data