Analysis of Valuation Rationality of Zhipu AI (02513.HK) and Investment Prospects of the Domestic Large Model Sector

Now, based on all collected data, I will provide you with a systematic and comprehensive analysis report.

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Zhipu AI (Stock Code: 02513.HK)

, becoming the world’s first enterprise to list on a public capital market with a general artificial intelligence (AGI) foundation model as its core business, and is widely known in the market as the “world’s first large model stock”[1][2].

The company originated from the Knowledge Engineering Laboratory of the Department of Computer Science at Tsinghua University, was independently established in 2019, and emerged from the technology achievement transformation of Tsinghua University. It has completed 8 rounds of financing totaling over RMB 8.3 billion, with investors including more than 50 institutions such as Sequoia China, Hillhouse, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan[3]. Huakong Technology, Tsinghua University’s technology achievement transformation platform, holds a 3.53% stake, corresponding to a market value of approximately HK$3.883 billion[4].

Item	Data
Issue Price	HK$116.2 per share
Issue Size	37.4195 million H-shares
Total Fund Raised	Approximately HK$4.3 billion
IPO Market Capitalization	Approximately HK$51.1 billion
First-Day Closing Price	HK$131.5 (+13.17%)[2]

Regarding the use of raised funds, 70% is allocated to R&D of general AI large models, and approximately 10% is used to optimize the MaaS platform[1].

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As of January 18, 2026 (the 10th trading day after listing), the stock price performance of Zhipu AI is as follows:

Indicator	Data
Latest Stock Price	Approximately HK$252
IPO Issue Price	HK$116.2
Cumulative Increase	+116.9%
Highest Price	HK$252
Lowest Price	HK$131.5
Current Market Capitalization	Approximately HK$110 billion

Performance at Key Time Nodes:

• January 8 (First Day of Listing)
  : Closed at HK$131.5, with an increase of 13.17%[2]
• January 12
  : Reached a strategic cooperation with Didi, the stock price soared
  31.40%
  in a single day to HK$208.4[5]
• January 16
  : The GLM-Image model, jointly open-sourced with Huawei, topped the Hugging Face rankings, and the stock price continued to rise[4]

Indicator	Value	Interpretation
Average Daily Increase	9.14%	Extremely High Growth
Daily Volatility	14.00%	Severe Fluctuations
5-Day Moving Average	HK$235.70	Above the Moving Average
Short-Term Trend	Strong Uptrend	Abundant Upward Momentum

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Valuation Indicator	Value	Industry Comparison
Current PS (Price-to-Sales Ratio)	149x (Based on 2025E Revenue)	Industry average is approximately 50x
PS at IPO	164x (Based on 2024 Revenue)	Significantly higher than the industry
Expected 2026 PS	68.8x	Tending to be reasonable
Expected 2027 PS	41.0x	Entering the reasonable range

Company	PS Ratio	Business Model	Development Stage
Zhipu AI (Current)	149x	MaaS + B-end	Growth Stage
Zhipu AI (IPO)	164x	MaaS + B-end	Growth Stage
OpenAI	~30x	Subscription + C-end	Mature Stage
Anthropic	~25x	Subscription + C-end	Growth Stage
MiniMax	120x	C-end Applications	Growth Stage
Baidu	8x	Search + Cloud	Mature Stage
Industry Average	~50x	-	Growth Stage

: Zhipu AI’s current PS ratio (149x) is significantly higher than:

• Approximately
  5-6 times
  that of international peers OpenAI/Anthropic (25-30x)
• Approximately
  18 times
  that of domestic mature company Baidu (8x)
• Approximately
  3 times
  the industry average valuation for the growth stage (50x)

Year	Revenue (CNY 100 million)	Reasonable Market Capitalization Range (50-100x PS)
2024A	3.1	HK$15.6-31.2 billion
2025E	7.4	HK$36.9-73.8 billion
2026E	16.0	HK$80-160 billion
2027E	26.8	HK$134-268 billion

:

• 2022-2024 Revenue CAGR:
  130%
  [1]
• H1 2025 Revenue: CNY 191 million, YoY Growth:
  325%
  [1]
• 2025 Full-Year Revenue: Over US$100 million (approximately CNY 740 million)[2]

Calculated based on a 15% discount rate:

• 2025E Net Profit: -CNY 740 million (Present Value: -CNY 640 million)
• 2026E Net Profit: -CNY 1.04 billion (Present Value: -CNY 790 million)
• 2027E Net Profit: -CNY 800 million (Present Value: -CNY 530 million)
• Enterprise Value After 3-Year Discount: -CNY 4.23 billion

: As the company is not yet profitable, the DCF model shows negative value, and its valuation mainly relies on market expectations and growth narratives for support.

Valuation Scenario	Market Capitalization Range	Corresponding Stock Price
Conservative Valuation	HK$66-99 billion	HK$150-225
Neutral Valuation	HK$99-132 billion	HK$225-300
Optimistic Valuation	HK$132-154 billion	HK$300-350
Current Status	HK$110 billion	HK$252

:

:

1. Current valuation (HK$110 billion) is at the upper end of the neutral valuation range
2. Valuation has fully reflected growth expectations, requiring sustained high-speed growth for support
3. PS ratio is significantly higher than that of international peers
4. Limited upside potential in the short term; commercialization capabilities need to be verified in the long term

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Time Node	Market Size	CAGR
2024	CNY 29.416 billion	-
2025E	Approximately CNY 50 billion	~70%
2026E	Approximately CNY 70 billion	~40%
2030E	CNY 101.1 billion	63.5% (2024-2030)

:

• 2024 Multimodal Large Model Market Size:
  CNY 15.63 billion
• 2030E Enterprise-Grade Large Model Market Size:
  CNY 90.4 billion
  [6]

Ranking	Enterprise	Market Share	Characteristics
1	Baidu	18.5%	Full-stack layout, government and enterprise market
2	Zhipu AI	6.6%	Top Independent Vendor
3	Alibaba	15.2%	Tongyi Qianwen
4	ByteDance	12.8%	Doubao
5	Tencent	10.5%	Hunyuan

:

• The era of the “Six Tigers” ended in 2025, and the industry entered the
  Fierce Competition
  stage[6]
• Leading internet giants (ByteDance, Alibaba) are accelerating their market positioning with advantages in computing power and talent
• DeepSeek is seizing market share with its open-source ecosystem, driving industry price wars

Advantage Area	Specific Performance
Technical Status	Top independent general large model developer in China, 2nd among all vendors[5]
Model Capability	GLM-4.7 ranks first in both open-source and domestic categories on the Artificial Analysis and Code Arena rankings[2]
Commercialization	MaaS ARR reaches CNY 500 million (25x growth in 10 months)[7]
Ecological Coverage	Empowers 12,000 enterprise customers, 80 million terminal devices, and 4.5 million developers[5]
Internationalization	Southeast Asia accounts for 11.1% of revenue; GLM-4.7 has 150,000 paid developers in 184 countries[2][7]

Zhipu AI adopts a

model:

Revenue Type	2024 Proportion	Gross Margin	Characteristics
Local Deployment	84.5%	59-68%	High gross margin, customized
Cloud MaaS	15.5%	3.4% (2024)	Low gross margin, price war impact
Overall Gross Margin	-	56.3%	Favorable overall profitability

:

• Annualized customer unit price for top clients reaches
  CNY 2.15 million
• Top 5 customers contribute approximately 50% of revenue, with high customer stickiness
• Cloud service proportion is gradually increasing (from 0 to 15%), with long-term improvement potential[7]

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Dimension	Rating	Description
Valuation Rationality	★★★☆☆	Current valuation is relatively high, requiring growth verification
Growth Potential	★★★★★	Extremely fast revenue growth (130% CAGR)
Competitive Position	★★★★☆	Top independent vendor, with continuously increasing market share
Commercialization Capability	★★★★☆	MaaS model is gradually being verified
Risk Level	★★★☆☆	Fierce competition, sustained losses

:

1. High Sector Growth
   : Domestic large model market 2024-2030 CAGR of 63.5%
2. Leading Position
   : Top independent vendor with continuously increasing market share
3. Commercialization Verification
   : Explosive growth of MaaS business, with ARR reaching CNY 500 million
4. Internationalization Potential
   : Rapid growth of overseas revenue, breaking U.S. monopoly
5. Strategic Cooperation
   : Reached cooperation with leading enterprises such as Didi and Huawei[5]

:

1. Valuation Pressure
   : PS ratio is significantly higher than that of peer companies
2. Sustained Losses
   : H1 2025 net loss of CNY 2.358 billion[6]
3. Intensified Competition
   : Giants such as ByteDance and Alibaba continue to increase AI investment
4. Price Wars
   : Open-source impact from DeepSeek puts pressure on MaaS gross margin
5. Severe Volatility
   : Over 110% increase in 10 days since listing, with extreme volatility

Scenario	Target Price	Market Capitalization
Conservative	HK$180	HK$79.2 billion
Neutral	HK$250	HK$110 billion
Optimistic	HK$320	HK$140.8 billion

1. Execution Risk
   : High valuation requires sustained high-speed revenue growth, with execution uncertainties
2. Competition Risk
   : ByteDance’s planned 2026 capital expenditure reaches CNY 160 billion, with an AI chip budget of CNY 85 billion[6]
3. Price Risk
   : Open-source models such as DeepSeek impact the business model, with ongoing MaaS price wars
4. Profitability Risk
   : Difficult to achieve profitability in the short term, with sustained high losses
5. Market Risk
   : Severe stock price fluctuations, with short-term trends dominated by speculative capital

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Investment Theme	Target Type	Recommendation Rationale
Computing Power Infrastructure	Chips, Servers	Sustained AI arms race drives strong demand for computing power
Leading Model Vendors	Zhipu AI, Baidu	Beneficiaries of increasing market share concentration
Leading Vertical Application Players	Scenario-Based Companies	Vertical AI is thriving, with implementation efficiency as a priority
Beneficiaries of Open-Source Ecosystem	Technology Service Companies	DeepSeek leads the open-source trend

:

• Zhipu AI’s valuation has fully reflected expectations;
  wait and see
  is recommended
• Monitor industry changes brought by DeepSeek’s open-source ecosystem

:

• Wait for valuation regression (PS falls below 80x)
• Monitor verification of sustained growth in MaaS business

:

• Industry landscape gradually clarifies, leading to valuation re-rating of leaders
• Monitor profitability path and timeline

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As the “world’s first large model stock”, Zhipu AI has performed strongly since listing, with a cumulative increase of over 110% and a current market capitalization of approximately HK$110 billion. From a valuation perspective, its current PS ratio (149x) is significantly higher than that of international peers (25-30x) and the industry average (50x), placing its valuation at a

level.

Investment Rating:

• Short-Term: Valuation has fully reflected growth expectations; wait and see is recommended
• Long-Term: As a leader in the domestic large model sector, it benefits from high-speed industry growth and is worthy of allocation

The domestic large model sector is in a period of rapid growth, with an expected CAGR of 63.5% from 2024 to 2030. Despite fierce competition and ongoing price wars, the industry has broad expansion space, and leading companies are expected to emerge victorious in the industry reshuffle. It is recommended that investors maintain active attention and wait for a better allocation timing.

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[1] National Business News - “The first large model stock is here! Zhipu starts roadshow today, IPO market capitalization expected to exceed HK$51.1 billion” (https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202512303605496361.html)
[2] Securities Times - “World’s first large model stock” Zhipu’s market capitalization exceeds HK$57 billion on its first day of listing" (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3580246.html)
[3] Securities Times Network - Zhipu Huazhang Technology lists on HKEX" (https://xnews.jin10.com/details/206026)
[4] PE Daily - Zhipu reaches HK$100 billion, Tsinghua makes a killing" (https://news.pedaily.cn/202601/560060.shtml)
[5] Securities Times - Zhipu surges 31.40% after reaching strategic cooperation with Didi" (https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3588160.html)
[6] Caishi China - Behind the rush for the “first large model stock”: 2025 domestic large model battle" (https://www.caishiv.com/insight/detail?id=31326)
[7] The Paper - “Chinese version of OpenAI” Zhipu lists: The gold content of China’s AI large models" (https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32343111)
[8] Geek Park - An analysis of China’s path amid 2025 global large model competition" (https://www.geekpark.net/news/358139)