In-Depth Analysis Report on Abnormal Price Fluctuation of Tongyu Communications (002792)

Based on the comprehensive data and market announcements I have obtained, here presents the in-depth analysis report on the abnormal price fluctuation of Tongyu Communications (002792).

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Tongyu Communications released an announcement on abnormal fluctuation of stock trading on January 14, 2026, revealing the objective fact that the company’s stock price is severely detached from its fundamentals [1]. According to the announcement, from November 27, 2025 to January 13, 2026, the closing price of the company’s stock rose by a cumulative

, while the Shenwan Communication Equipment Industry index rose only and the Shenzhen Component Index rose over the same period [1][2]. The company’s stock price increase during the period is significantly higher than that of the industry and the market index in the same period, but there has been no major change in the company’s fundamentals, indicating obvious overheated market sentiment and irrational speculation.

From the latest trading data, the company’s stock closed at

on January 16, 2026, down from the previous trading day [0]. From January 14 to 16, the cumulative deviation of the closing price decline of the stock exceeded 20% in three consecutive trading days, triggering the abnormal stock trading fluctuation criteria of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. It is worth noting that as of the close on January 13, 2026, the closing price of the company’s stock reached , hitting a historical high; the turnover on that day reached , with abnormally enlarged trading volume [1][2].

In terms of long-term stock performance, the company’s stock has risen by

in the past year, in the past three years, and in the past five years [0]. This continuous sharp rise is in stark contrast to the weak performance of the company’s fundamentals.

The current valuation level of Tongyu Communications has seriously deviated from the normal range of the industry, with extremely high valuation risk. According to data from China Securities Index Co., Ltd. as of January 12, 2026, the industry average price-to-book ratio (P/B) of the “C39 Computer, Communications and Other Electronic Equipment Manufacturing” sector to which the company belongs is

, and the industry average static price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is [1][2].

However, the latest P/B ratio of Tongyu Communications is as high as

, which is the industry average; its static P/E ratio reaches , which is the industry average [1][2]. From the perspective of technical analysis indicators, the company’s current trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is , P/B ratio is , and price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is [0], all of which are at historical highs.

As shown in the chart, the company’s valuation level far exceeds the industry average, with a static P/E ratio 12.7 times the industry average and a P/B ratio 2.2 times the industry average. This valuation premium is unsustainable without fundamental support, and the stock price faces significant correction risk.

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Based on the company’s first three quarters financial data of 2025, Tongyu Communications is facing significant performance decline pressure. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of

, down year-on-year; its net profit attributable to shareholders of listed company was , a sharp decline of year-on-year [1][2]. This performance is at a poor level in the communication equipment industry.

From the latest quarterly data, in Q2 2025 (as of June 30, 2025), the company’s operating revenue was

(equivalent to approximately RMB 1.97 billion, estimated at an exchange rate of 7:1), with EPS of US$0.02 [0]. For Q4 2025 (announced on May 16, 2025), operating revenue was , but net profit was negative with EPS of -US$0.02 [0]. The TTM net profit margin is only , operating profit margin is , and return on equity (ROE) is only [0], reflecting the company’s extremely weak profitability.

As can be clearly seen from the chart above:

1. Stagnant Revenue Growth
   : The quarterly revenue growth rate fluctuated greatly in 2025, with Q3 growing 5.1% year-on-year, but the full-year revenue fell 3.34% year-on-year, indicating insufficient growth momentum in the main business.

2. Sharp Decline in Net Profit
   : The net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 fell 50.91% year-on-year, with the decline in profit far exceeding that in revenue, indicating the company’s weak cost control ability or pressure from gross profit margin compression.

3. Deteriorating Profitability Indicators
   : The TTM net profit margin is only 1.30%, meaning that only RMB 1.3 of net profit is generated for every RMB 100 of revenue; the ROE is only 0.54%, indicating extremely low returns for shareholders.

In the abnormal fluctuation announcement, the company clearly stated that it is currently conducting the 2025 annual financial accounting, and if the calculation meets the relevant circumstances of earnings forecast specified in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Listing Rules, the company will disclose the 2025 annual earnings forecast in a timely manner in accordance with regulations [1][2]. This statement means that the company’s 2025 full-year performance may face major uncertainties.

Considering that the company’s first three quarters net profit has fallen 50.91% year-on-year, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in Q4 operating conditions, the full-year earnings forecast may present the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic Scenario
  : If Q4 continues to incur losses, the full-year net profit may turn negative year-on-year
• Neutral Scenario
  : Q4 achieves slight profit, full-year net profit falls 30%-50% year-on-year
• Optimistic Scenario
  : Q4 gains non-recurring income, full-year net profit falls 20%-30% year-on-year

None of these scenarios can support the company’s current static P/E ratio of 846 times.

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According to technical analysis results, Tongyu Communications is currently in a

state [0]. As of the close on January 16, 2026 at US$51.71, technical analysis shows:

• MACD Indicator
  : No crossover signal, overall bullish but momentum weakening
• KDJ Indicator
  : K value 58.3, D value 76.1, J value 22.6, showing a
  death cross signal
  , short-term bearish
• RSI Indicator
  : In normal range
• Beta Value
  : 0.37, low correlation with the market

:

• Support Level
  : US$47.19
• Resistance Level
  : US$54.17 [0]

From a technical perspective, the company’s stock price faces the following risks:

1. KDJ Death Cross
   : Short-term technical indicators show a sell signal, which may trigger further adjustments
2. Excessive Deviation Rate
   : The stock price has risen too sharply in the short term, deviating significantly from the moving average system, creating a need for regression
3. Abnormal Trading Volume
   : On January 13, 2026, the turnover reached RMB 11.261 billion, with significantly enlarged trading volume and high turnover rate, indicating fierce capital game
4. Increased Volatility
   : The stock has fallen 22.66% in the past 5 days, with significantly increased volatility [0]

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Currently, small and medium-sized board communication equipment enterprises are generally facing significant industry cyclical pressure. This pressure mainly comes from the following aspects:

According to data from industry research institutions, after reaching a peak of US$45 billion in annual revenue in 2022, 5G product revenue decreased by US$5 billion in both 2023 and 2024 [1]. The global 5G base station construction speed has slowed down, operators’ capital expenditure has contracted, and the demand for communication equipment has entered a plateau period.

The competition pattern in the communication equipment industry continues to deteriorate. Taking the RF PA (Power Amplifier) market as an example, international giants such as NXP have shown signs of strategic contraction. The advanced GaN wafer fab launched by NXP in 2020 failed to withstand the dual impact of market and technology, and its “Communication Infrastructure and Others” business revenue fell sharply in 2024-2025 [1]. Market competition has shifted from pursuing “low-cost substitution” to “high-value guarantee”, and enterprises must rely on technological innovation to gain competitive advantages.

Intensified industry competition has led to lower product prices, while raw material costs and labor costs continue to rise, greatly compressing the gross profit margin space. Tongyu Communications’ 0.55% operating profit margin is a typical epitome of the industry’s predicament.

Despite facing cyclical pressure, the communication equipment industry still has structural opportunities:

5G technology continues to evolve towards higher frequency bands, massive MIMO and other directions, and demand for technological upgrading still exists. 6G technology research and development has started, which will bring new equipment upgrade demand in the future.

The number of global IoT terminals is expected to grow from 21.5 billion in 2025 to 41.1 billion in 2030, and cellular IoT connections will continue to climb at a CAGR of 15% [1]. This will bring new growth points for communication equipment enterprises.

Driven by large AI models, domestic giants such as ByteDance have restarted data center bidding activities, and IDC (Internet Data Center) and computing infrastructure have once again attracted market attention [1]. There are growth opportunities in segmented fields such as optical communication, liquid cooling, and edge computing.

In the face of industry cyclical pressure, small and medium-sized board communication equipment enterprises can adopt the following response strategies:

Learn from the experience of enterprises such as Huatai Electronics, focus on high-value-added markets such as base stations and ISM, avoid red sea competition such as mobile phones and WiFi, and gain customer recognition through differentiated products [1].

Continue to increase R&D investment, establish technical barriers in cutting-edge fields such as third-generation semiconductor materials, millimeter-wave technology, and satellite communication, and avoid falling into the trap of price wars.

Actively deploy emerging application scenarios such as IoT, connected cars, and satellite Internet, diversify single-market risks, and seek new growth curves.

Reduce operating costs through digital transformation, supply chain optimization, lean production and other methods, and maintain profitability during the industry downturn.

Accelerate the domestic substitution process in key fields such as RF front-end and chips, and enhance the competitive position in domestic and international markets.

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Risk Category	Risk Level	Specific Performance
Valuation Risk	Extremely High	PE 846x (12.7x industry average), PB 12.57x (2.2x industry average)
Performance Risk	High	Q1-Q3 net profit down 50.91% year-on-year
Market Risk	Extremely High	Stock price detached from fundamentals, facing correction pressure
Technical Risk	Medium	KDJ death cross, short-term bearish
Liquidity Risk	Low	Current ratio 3.91, low debt risk

The recent abnormal price fluctuation of Tongyu Communications is a typical irrational rise driven by theme hype. There has been no major change in the company’s fundamentals; its first three quarters performance in 2025 fell sharply by 50.91% year-on-year, with extremely weak profitability (ROE only 0.54%), and its valuation level (PE 846x) is more than 12 times the industry average (66x), indicating that the stock price is severely detached from fundamentals [1][2].

From a market perspective, the company’s stock rose 256.08% from November 27, 2025 to January 13, 2026, while the industry rose only 15.38% over the same period. This deviation reflects the market’s over-hype of themes such as 5G concept and domestic substitution. The company has clearly warned of risks in the announcement, stating that “there has been no major change in the company’s fundamentals, there are situations of overheated market sentiment and irrational speculation, and the stock price faces the risk of a sharp short-term decline” [1].

1. Avoid the Risk of Chasing Highs
   : The current valuation level has overdrawn future performance for many years, with significant correction risk
2. Pay Attention to Earnings Forecast
   : Closely track the company’s 2025 annual earnings forecast; if performance falls further below expectations, it may trigger greater adjustments
3. Monitor Fundamental Improvements
   : Pay attention to whether the company can improve its fundamentals through technological innovation, business expansion and other methods
4. Industry Cycle Positioning
   : Against the background of slowing 5G construction and intensified competition, small and medium-sized board communication equipment enterprises as a whole face pressure of valuation restructuring

During the industry downturn, enterprises with core technical barriers and differentiated competitive advantages are expected to survive the cycle, while enterprises lacking core competitiveness and relying on low-end markets will face greater survival pressure.

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[1] Sina Finance - Announcement on Abnormal Fluctuation of Stock Trading of Guangdong Tongyu Communications Co., Ltd. (2026-01-14)
https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-01-14/doc-inhheyvc5537664.shtml

[2] Sohu Finance - Announcement on Abnormal Fluctuation of Stock Trading of Guangdong Tongyu Communications Co., Ltd. (2026-01-14)
https://m.sohu.com/a/975754750_122014422

[3] Futu Information - NXP “Exits”, RF PA Market Pattern Restructured
https://news.futunn.com/post/67226986

[4] NetEase Official Account (Puhua Youce) - 5/6G + IoT Dual-Drive, RF Front-End Industry Enters Hundred-Billion Increment Market (2026-01-14)
https://www.163.com/dy/article/KJ7SVD2G0518WMF4.html

[5] Hexin Securities Research - Guosheng Securities - Communication Industry Weekly: Marginal Changes of IDC (2026-01-11)
https://m.hibor.com.cn/wap_detail.aspx?id=c2df7bb70eff5fcc24e7b70610c05e88

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Report Compiled by: Jinling AI Financial Analysis Team
Data Sources: Jinling API Real-Time Data, Listed Company Announcements, Public Market Information
Disclaimer: This report is for investment reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice.