In-Depth Analysis of Green Hydrogen-Carbon Production Pathways in Q1 2026

Based on the latest information, I have prepared an in-depth analysis report on green hydrogen-carbon production pathways in Q1 2026 for you.

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Yu Qingkai, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and Chairman of Shanghai Hydrogen Field New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., leads the team in continuous research on natural gas cracking for hydrogen-carbon co-production, graphene wafer preparation, and other fields [1]. This technology has received support from the National Key R&D Program’s “Hydrogen Energy Technology” key special project, emerging as an important pathway for green hydrogen-carbon production [2].

• Direct cracking of natural gas (methane) to produce hydrogen coupled with solid carbon
• Effectively addresses carbon emission reduction issues in natural gas-based hydrogen production
• Obtains large-volume high-value carbon materials (graphene, nanocarbon, etc.)
• Avoids greenhouse gas emissions from traditional hydrogen production processes (9-12 kg CO₂/kg H₂) [2]

Currently, the team is focusing on overcoming technical bottlenecks such as continuous system operation, with the goal of increasing the stable continuous operation time of the cracking reactor to

[1]. The key significance of this technological breakthrough is as follows:

Technical Indicator	Current Status	Target	Significance
Continuous Operation Time	Under intensive R&D	One month	Lays foundation for industrial production
Operating Condition	Nearly zero pollution	Zero emission	Fully green production
Products	High-purity hydrogen + graphite	High-purity hydrogen + high-value carbon materials	Improves economic efficiency

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Based on hydrogen sources and carbon emission levels during production, hydrogen can be classified into the following three categories [3]:

Hydrogen Type	Production Source	Carbon Emission	Cost Characteristics
Gray Hydrogen	Coal, natural gas	High	Low cost
Blue Hydrogen	Fossil fuels + CCS	Medium	Medium cost
Green Hydrogen	Renewable energy-powered water electrolysis	Zero	High cost (declining)

1. Comparison with Steam Methane Reforming (SMR):
   • SMR Technology: 19% of China’s hydrogen output comes from this technology, with 9-12 kg of CO₂ emitted per kg of H₂ [2]
   • Natural Gas Cracking: Zero carbon emission, products are hydrogen + solid carbon

2. International Competitive Landscape:
   • US Monolith Materials: Received a US$1 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2022, pyrolyzes 20,000 tons of natural gas annually to produce 15,000 tons of carbon black and 5,000 tons of hydrogen [2]
   • Germany BASF: Has been developing mobile carbon bed catalytic technology with German government support since 2013, and highlighted it at the 2023 First Carbon Neutrality Expo [2]
   • Over 30 innovative companies worldwide are engaged in direct natural gas cracking for hydrogen production [2]

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Phase	Time	Milestone
Technical R&D Phase	2024-2025	Breakthrough in continuous operation of cracking reactors
Pilot Testing & Verification	2025-2026	Achieve one month of stable continuous operation
Demonstration Application	2026	Launch demonstration project in Sichuan Province
Large-Scale Promotion	2026-2028	Build national distributed hydrogen production network

• Location Advantage:
  Abundant natural gas resources, sufficient raw material supply
• Scale Target:
  Large-scale preparation of clean hydrogen and high-purity carbon materials
• Application Scenarios:
  Distributed scenarios such as chemical industry and hydrogen refueling stations [1]

1. Natural Gas Production Areas:
   Conduct large-scale production
2. Chemical Industry Sector:
   Areas with concentrated demand for high-purity hydrogen
3. Hydrogen Refueling Station Network:
   Distributed hydrogen production for on-site supply

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This project adopts a deep integration model of “Industry-Research”:

• Leading Unit:
  Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Industrialization Platform:
  Shanghai Hydrogen Field New Materials Technology Co., Ltd.
• Collaborating Units:
  ShanghaiTech University, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Harbin Institute of Technology
• Application Verification:
  Shanghai Baowu Clean Energy Co., Ltd. [2]

• Hydrogen energy was listed as a frontier emerging industry for the first time in the Government Work Report [2]
• Overall goal of the National Key R&D Program’s “Hydrogen Energy Technology” special project: By 2025, China’s hydrogen energy technology R&D level will enter the international advanced ranks [2]

• Shanghai International Science and Innovation Center provides agglomeration effects
• Overall advantages and hub functions of the Yangtze River Delta
• Concentration of high-end talents, convenient resource flow [1]

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Region	Representative Enterprise	Technology Level	Commercialization Progress
United States	Monolith Materials	Leading	Already in commercial operation
Germany	BASF	Leading	Pilot testing & verification
China	Hydrogen Field New Materials	Catching up	Demonstration in 2026
Others	30+ innovative enterprises	With unique features	R&D phase

According to the “Renewable Hydrogen 100” Roadmap [3]:

Phase	Time	Target
Phase 1	2023-2024	Enabling policies + demonstration projects
Phase 2	2024-2027	Technical standards + supply network
Phase 3	2027-2030	Green hydrogen cost reduced to RMB 15/kg

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1. Upstream:
   Natural gas cracking equipment, reactor manufacturing
2. Midstream:
   High-purity hydrogen preparation, nanocarbon material processing
3. Downstream:
   Hydrogen metallurgy, hydrogen refueling stations, chemical applications

Indicator	Traditional SMR	Natural Gas Cracking	Emission Reduction Benefit
CO₂ Emission	9-12 kg/kg H₂	0	100%
Product Value	Hydrogen only	Hydrogen + carbon materials	3-5 times increase

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The breakthrough in hydrogen-carbon co-production technology by the CAS team marks:

• Important progress made by China in the field of green hydrogen-carbon production
• Provides key technical support for the achievement of China’s “Double Carbon” goals
• Breaks international technological monopoly and fosters independent innovation capabilities

1. Q1: Breakthrough in continuous operation time of cracking reactors
2. Q2-Q3: System stability verification
3. Q4: Launch of Sichuan demonstration project

• Achieve stable continuous operation for one month
• Verify technical feasibility
• Lay foundation for large-scale promotion

Driven by policy support, technological breakthroughs and market demand, hydrogen-carbon co-production technology is expected to achieve large-scale commercial application between 2026 and 2030, making important contributions to China’s energy transition and carbon neutrality goals.

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[1] China News Service - “Chinese Scientists Break Through Hydrogen-Carbon Co-Production Technology, Zero-Pollution Hydrogen Production Supports Energy Transition” (January 18, 2026)
https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2026/01-18/10554059.shtml

[2] Jiefang Daily - “National Key R&D Program ‘Natural Gas Cracking for Hydrogen Production Coupled with Nanocarbon Materials Technology’ Key Special Project Launched in Shanghai”
https://www.jfdaily.com/wx/detail.do?id=744407

[3] World Economic Forum - “Green Hydrogen Acceleration Initiative: Recommendations for Enabling Green Hydrogen in China”
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Green_Hydrogen_in_China_A_Roadmap_for_Progress_2023_CN.pdf

[4] Securities Times - “Hydrogen Energy Industrialization Accelerates, A-Share Companies Seize Opportunities”
https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/3541876.html