Trump Imposes Tariffs on 8 European Countries: Analysis of Impacts on Global Trade Landscape and Investment Markets

Based on the latest market data and related information, I present this comprehensive impact analysis report on Trump’s tariff imposition on 8 European countries.

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On January 17, 2026, U.S. President Trump announced on the social platform Truth Social the implementation of a new tariff policy on 8 European countries [1][2]:

Timeline	Tariff Rate	Target Countries
February 1, 2026	10%	Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Finland
June 1, 2026	25%	Same as above (if no Greenland agreement is reached)

This measure will

[1][2]. Notably, the new tariffs will be the existing U.S. import tariffs for these countries [1].

:

• Military Strategy
  : Located in the GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-UK), a critical channel connecting the Arctic and the Atlantic Ocean [3]
• Rich Resources
  : Contains large reserves of critical minerals such as rare earth elements (neodymium, dysprosium), lithium, copper, and nickel [3][4]
• Shipping Lanes
  : The melting of Arctic ice opens up new Asia-European shipping routes [3]
• China’s Rare Earth Monopoly
  : Rare earths are critical for new energy and high-tech industries, and China has previously used its rare earth advantages to pressure the West [3]

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According to the latest data, there are significant differences in the scale of exports to the U.S. among the affected countries:

Country	Exports to the U.S. (Billions of USD)	Share of GDP	Main Affected Industries
Germany	~$158	6.8%	Automotive, machinery, chemicals [5][6]
United Kingdom	~$67	5.2%	Aerospace, pharmaceuticals, technology [6]
France	~$52	4.1%	Luxury goods, aerospace, pharmaceuticals [6]
Netherlands	~$49	4.8%	Food, tech hardware, petroleum products
Sweden	~$18	5.5%	Automotive, telecommunications equipment
Denmark	~$12	5.1%	Pharmaceuticals, food, wind power equipment
Norway	~$10	3.2%	Petroleum, aluminum, seafood
Finland	~$7	3.8%	Paper manufacturing, telecommunications equipment

As Europe’s largest economy, Germany has been hit the hardest. According to a report by the German Economic Institute (IW), Germany’s exports to the U.S. fell by 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, with automotive exports plummeting by 14% [5].

[2][7]:

• Ambassadors from the 27 EU countries held an
  emergency meeting
  to discuss countermeasures
• EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas stated: “
  China and Russia must be rubbing their hands with glee; they are the beneficiaries of the split among allies
  ” [2]
• The European Parliament has announced that
  EU-U.S. trade agreement negotiations are on hold
  , and the approval process originally scheduled for Wednesday (January 21) has been canceled [7]
• The EU is preparing to activate its
  Anti-Coercion Instrument (“bazooka”)
  , which includes measures such as investment restrictions, public procurement access restrictions, and intellectual property restrictions [7]

1. Supply Chain Restructuring Pressure
   :
   • European enterprises face the difficult choice between “access to the U.S. market vs. increased costs”
   • This may accelerate the transfer of supply chains from Europe to regions such as Southeast Asia and Mexico

2. Pressure on the Multilateral Trade System
   :
   • WTO rules are once again challenged by unilateral measures
   • Other countries may follow the U.S. example and take unilateral tariff actions

3. Acceleration of Regional Trade Agreements
   :
   • Eurasian economic and trade cooperation may deepen
   • Regional agreements such as CPTPP and RCEP are becoming more attractive

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[0]:

Date	S&P 500	NASDAQ	Dow Jones	Russell 2000
January 13	-0.20%	-0.11%	-0.86%	-0.43%
January 14	-0.16%	-0.39%	+0.13%	+0.78%
January 15	-0.36%	-0.69%	+0.49%	+0.51%
January 16	-0.30%	-0.53%	-0.22%	+0.03%

Major U.S. indices showed a volatile downward trend in the week before the tariff announcement, falling by approximately 1% cumulatively. Technology stocks (NASDAQ) suffered the largest decline.

[8][9]:

• The EURO STOXX 600 Index has
  erased recent gains
  and accelerated its decline after January 17
• Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40, and the UK’s FTSE 100 all recorded significant declines
• The automotive sector (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen) led the declines [8]

[10][11]:

• As of January 15, EUR/USD fell to
  1.1602
  , hitting a new low in over a month [10]
• It has fallen by 1.23% within the month, but has still risen by 12.61% cumulatively over the past 12 months
• Market analysts expect the euro to fluctuate within the 1.15-1.18 range, with a 2026 target of 1.20 [11]

:

• The Swedish krona against the euro hit its lowest level since October 2022 at one point (EUR/SEK broke below 10.70) [12]
• The Danish krone and Norwegian krone are also facing depreciation pressure

• Safe-Haven Assets Strengthen
  : Spot gold prices have received support
• Oil Price Volatility
  : North Sea Brent crude oil prices are sensitive to the impact of trade conflicts
• Industrial Metals
  : Demand expectations for base metals such as copper and aluminum are under pressure

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Industry	Germany Exposure	France Exposure	UK Exposure	Impact Assessment
Automotive Vehicles and Components	95%	50%	60%	⚠️ Very High
Luxury Goods	40%	85%	40%	🔴 High
Pharmaceuticals	60%	75%	55%	🔴 High
Aerospace	55%	65%	50%	🟠 Medium-High
Tech Hardware	45%	35%	65%	🟠 Medium-High

(Biggest Victim):

• Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz
  : Exports to the U.S. account for 8-12% of total revenue
• Volvo (Sweden)
  : Continues to export large volumes to the U.S. after being acquired by Geely
• Airbus (France/Germany/Spain)
  : Aircraft exports may face additional tariff pressure

:

• LVMH Group (France)
  : The U.S. is one of its largest single markets
• Kering Group (France)
  : Brands such as Gucci and YSL
• Hermès (France)
  : Limited room for product price increases

:

• Novo Nordisk (Denmark)
  : Relies on the U.S. market for its diabetes medications
• Roche/Novartis (Switzerland, not on the list but concerns are spreading)

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Asset Class	Expected Direction	Fluctuation Range	Rationale
European Stocks	↓	-3~5%	Profit pressure on export-oriented enterprises
EUR/USD	↓	-2~4%	Trade headwinds + safe-haven capital outflows
German Government Bonds	↑ (Yield ↓)	5-15bp	Safe-haven demand
U.S. Dollar Index	↑	+1~2%	Capital flows back to the U.S.
Gold	↑	+2~4%	Safe-haven allocation

:

Scenario	Probability	Development Path	Market Impact
Base Scenario	50%	Tariffs implemented as scheduled, limited European retaliation	European stocks fall 5-10%, euro depreciates by 5%
Escalated Conflict	30%	EU activates countermeasures, trade war expands	Global stocks fall 15-20%, euro depreciates by 10%+
Rapid Resolution	20%	Europe compromises or the Greenland issue is put on hold	V-shaped market reversal

:

• U.S. Treasuries
  : Top choice for safe-haven capital
• U.S. Dollar Assets
  : Technology leaders (less affected by tariffs)
• Gold
  : Hedge against geopolitical risks

:

• Reduce holdings of export-oriented stocks in automotive and luxury goods sectors
• Focus on domestic demand-oriented European enterprises
• Wait and see on European ETFs (such as IEV, VGK)

:

• U.S. Domestic Manufacturers
  : Reduced foreign competition
• Southeast Asian Exporting Countries
  : Beneficiaries of supply chain transfer
• U.S. Critical Mineral Enterprises
  : Theme of rare earth self-sufficiency and control

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1. Unprecedented Trade Conflict
   : The U.S. imposes tariffs on 8 NATO allies simultaneously, and the transatlantic alliance faces its
   most severe test since World War II
   [2]

2. Far-Reaching Economic Impacts
   :
   • Approximately
     $363 billion
     in European exports to the U.S. will be affected
   • Germany’s automotive industry bears the brunt, with annual losses potentially exceeding
     €20 billion
   • Europe’s economic growth rate may be lowered by 0.3-0.5 percentage points

3. Accelerated Retrogression of Globalization
   :
   • Regionalization and localization trends are strengthening
   • The credibility of trade agreements has declined
   • Enterprises’ costs for supply chain restructuring have increased

4. Increased Market Volatility
   :
   • The VIX Index may break through 25
   • EUR/USD tests the 1.10 support level
   • European stocks may correct by 10-15% from their year-to-date highs

Timeline	Events to Monitor
January 21	Originally scheduled European Parliament vote on trade agreement (now likely on hold)
February 1	10% tariffs officially take effect
Mid-February	EU releases details of countermeasures
June 1	Whether tariffs will be raised to 25%
Throughout the Year	Progress of Greenland negotiations

This tariff measure may become a

:

• The America First principle is further deepened
• Europe’s strategic autonomy is accelerated
• China’s role in the global trade landscape is re-examined
• The trend of “friend-shoring” in supply chains is strengthened

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[1] CNBC - “Trump: Sell U.S. Greenland or get tariffs” (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/17/trump-greenland-tariffs-nato.html)

[2] Politico - “Europe vows ‘firm’ response to new Trump tariffs over Greenland” (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-vows-response-to-new-trump-tariffs-over-greenland/)

[3] CNBC - “Why Trump wants Greenland and what makes it so important” (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/why-trump-wants-greenland-and-what-makes-it-so-important-for-security.html)

[4] AP News - “Why Greenland is strategically important to Arctic security” (https://apnews.com/article/greenland-denmark-security-trump-arctic-6066195d0c6b9e1bbe6da27d55b26ece)

[5] Yahoo Finance - “Germany’s export model hit from both sides” (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-export-model-hit-both-163052709.html)

[6] Visual Capitalist - “EU Exports to the United States” (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/)

[7] Politico - “EU-US trade deal ‘on hold’ after new Trump tariffs” (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-us-trade-deal-on-hold-after-new-trump-tariffs/)

[8] Nasdaq - “European Stocks Subdued On Tariff Worries” (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/european-stocks-subdued-tariff-worries-corporate-news-focus)

[9] Investing.com - “Europe’s STOXX 600 ends at record high” (https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/european-shares-edge-up-as-rwe-sse-auction-win-boosts-utilities-4446224)

[10] Trading Economics - “Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate” (https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency)

[11] RBC Capital Markets - “Currency Report Card & 2026 Trades” (https://www.rbccm.com/assets/rbccm/docs/fx/currency-report-card.pdf)

[12] Saxo Bank - “Market Quick Take - 13 January 2026” (https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take---13-january-2026-13012026)

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Report Generation Date: January 18, 2026

Data Sources: Jinling AI Financial Database, Reuters, Bloomberg, major financial media