Report on Market Competition Pattern and Investment Opportunity Assessment of Cross-Border Medium and Large Parcel Logistics Industry

Based on collected industry data and market information, I have prepared a detailed

for you.

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China’s cross-border e-commerce logistics industry is in a golden development period, with its market size showing continuous expansion. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in 2024, the scale of China’s cross-border e-commerce import and export exceeded

, and the cross-border logistics market size reached , a year-on-year increase of about 15%, significantly higher than the overall growth rate of the domestic express logistics industry [1][2]. This growth mainly benefits from the three driving factors below:

The “Four Dragons Going Overseas” represented by Temu, TikTok Shop, SHEIN, and AliExpress are rapidly rising in the global market. In 2025, Temu’s cross-border e-commerce sales will be on par with Amazon, with a market share of 24%, while its international online sales accounted for only 1% of the market share in 2022 [3]. This explosive growth directly drives rigid demand for cross-border logistics fulfillment capabilities.

The online penetration rate of medium and large items such as furniture, home appliances, and mechanical equipment continues to increase. In 2025, the online sales share of home appliances has reached 42% [1]. Such items have the characteristics of large volume, heavy weight, and high value, putting forward higher professional requirements for logistics services, and creating differentiated competition opportunities for logistics service providers focusing on medium and large parcel logistics.

By the end of 2024, the number of overseas warehouses for China’s cross-border e-commerce has exceeded 2,500, with a total area of over 20 million square meters [4]. The popularization of overseas warehouses has greatly shortened fulfillment time, promoting the transformation of cross-border logistics from “light and small items-oriented” to “full category coverage”.

The cross-border logistics industry shows obvious

:

Sub-Track	Annual Growth Rate	Driving Factors
Cross-Border Logistics	15%	E-commerce going overseas, global supply chain restructuring
Large Parcel Logistics	15%	Rising online penetration rate of home appliances and furniture
Cold Chain Logistics	12%	Growth of cross-border trade in fresh food
Small Parcel Express	8%	Slowdown of domestic e-commerce growth, fierce competition

Among them, the

is one of the fastest-growing segments, with an annual growth rate of 15%, far exceeding the industry average [1]. This field has formed a dual-dominant competition pattern of “JD System + SF System”, with market concentration continuing to increase, and CR5 has reached 65%.

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At present, China’s cross-border logistics industry has formed clear

, and competition has upgraded from single-enterprise competition to ecological system confrontation [1]:

The SF-J&T Alliance is a new strong player in the track, achieving deep binding through the

model. With its trunk line and supply chain capabilities, SF, together with J&T relying on its overseas terminal network, forms an end-to-end cross-border logistics solution.

• Core Advantages of SF
  : The high-end market share has increased to 38%, and the penetration rate in sinking markets has exceeded 25%; Ezhou Aviation Hub provides strong air cargo capacity support
• Core Advantages of J&T
  : Dense terminal network in Southeast Asia, leading in daily parcel processing volume in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries
• Strategic Synergy
  : The two parties plan to jointly develop Latin America and Middle East markets, and the growth rate of cross-border logistics in Southeast Asia will reach 91.55% in 2025

The JD System adopts the

model, and has built a complete system covering large parcel express, less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, and air time-sensitive parcels through the acquisition of Deppon, KyEms and other enterprises [1].

• Deppon
  : The market share in the freight express market reaches 18.3%, ranking first in the industry, and the 3-60kg small-ticket LTL business has grown by 41%
• JD Logistics
  : The order volume of overseas warehouses on “Black Friday and Cyber Monday” doubled year-on-year, with volume in North America increasing by 60% and Europe by 85%
• KyEms
  : Provides air time-sensitive parcel services, strengthening high-end market capabilities

In 2025, JD Property Development jointly acquired logistics warehouses in Singapore with a total area of 175,000 square meters, further strengthening the overseas warehouse layout [5].

Cainiao adopts the

model, integrating third-party capacity through technology output and resource connection to build an open logistics ecosystem [1].

• Global Layout
  : Covers 10 countries and regions including Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, etc., and is the Chinese logistics enterprise with the largest warehouse area and the widest warehouse distribution coverage in the Asia-Pacific region
• Fulfillment Capability
  : During Black Friday 2025, the total stock preparation volume in Asia-Pacific overseas warehouses exceeded 5 million pieces, with warehousing volume in Vietnam increasing by 40% month-on-month and Australia by 57%
• Innovative Service
  : Launched the Americas G2G cross-border logistics service, covering 99% of regions from the US to Mexico, breaking the high-cost barrier with a 40% discount on the industry average price [6]

According to the market share data from Q1 to Q3 2025, the market concentration shows the following pattern [1][7]:

Enterprise	Market Share	Core Positioning
ZTO	19.3%	Leader of economical express delivery
YTO	15.6%	Aviation + Cross-Border E-Commerce
STO	13.0%	Cainiao Ecological Synergy
Yunda	13.2%	E-Commerce Express-Oriented
J&T	11.3%	Cross-Border + Emerging Markets
SF	8.7%	High-End Time-Sensitive Parcels
JD Logistics	12%	Warehouse-Distribution Integration

It is worth noting that the continuous growth of ZTO, the overtaking of STO, and the decline of Yunda reflect that the competition among leading enterprises has entered a

, and differentiated strategy has become the key to survival.

In the international market, Chinese cross-border logistics enterprises are competing head-on with international giants:

• DHL, FedEx, UPS
  : Relying on mature global networks and brand advantages, they dominate the high-end cross-border logistics market
• Competitive Advantages of Chinese Enterprises
  : Cost advantages and localized operation capabilities are gradually eroding the market share of the mid-to-low end
• Competition Focus
  : Localized operation capabilities, end-to-end solutions, and cost control

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As a typical representative in the field of cross-border medium and large parcel logistics, the development path of Topwin International has important research value. The company has just completed a

, invested by Zheshang Venture Capital and Aerospace Fund [8]. The company is positioned as a “global end-to-end digital intelligence AI fulfillment service provider for medium and large items”, operating 7 overseas warehouses in the US, covering about 90% of the US territory.

Topwin International integrates AI technology into the entire logistics process, achieving:

• Minute-level decision-making for price checking and order placement, greatly improving customer experience
• Intelligent order combining increases loading rate by about 15%, significantly reducing unit transportation costs
• Intelligent dispatching system optimizes routes, improving overall operational efficiency

Different from comprehensive logistics enterprises, Topwin International focuses on cross-border transportation of medium and large items such as furniture, home appliances, and mechanical equipment, and has accumulated rich industry experience:

• Optimized packaging and loading solutions based on the characteristics of large items
• Provides value-added services such as door-to-door installation, return and exchange
• Establishes an exclusive customer service system for large items

The company has established cooperative relationships with mainstream cross-border e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, Alibaba, TEMU, TikTok, and Shopee, ensuring a stable source of orders.

Indicator	Topwin International	Deppon	SF International	JD Logistics	Cainiao
Number of Overseas Warehouses	7	12	15	50+	100+
AI Technology Score	95	75	80	85	90
Loading Rate Improvement	15%	8%	10%	12%	14%
Coverage Area	90%	85%	75%	80%	95%

It can be seen from the comparison that although Topwin International is small in scale, it performs outstandingly in

and , demonstrating the technological innovation capabilities of professional enterprises.

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It is expected that from 2025 to 2029, the scale of China’s cross-border e-commerce import and export will still show a steady growth trend, with a compound annual growth rate maintained at more than 14% [4]. The share of global e-commerce sales in total retail sales will exceed 20%, and the number of online shoppers will reach 3 billion.

The country continues to promote the construction of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones and cancel the overseas warehouse filing policy to provide a convenient business environment for enterprises.

The in-depth application of technologies such as AI, IoT, and automation in the logistics field is reshaping the efficiency boundary of the industry, creating excess returns for enterprises with technological advantages.

Based on the two dimensions of growth potential and profitability, I have constructed a four-quadrant analysis framework for investment opportunities:

• AI Logistics Technology
  : Growth rate 85%, profit margin 75%. The application of technologies such as intelligent dispatching, unmanned distribution, and AI prediction is reshaping logistics efficiency
• Overseas Warehouse Network
  : Growth rate 78%, profit margin 70%. Overseas warehouses are the core link of cross-border e-commerce infrastructure, with strong network effects and economies of scale

• Large Parcel Delivery Service
  : Growth rate 80%, profit margin 65%. The rising online penetration rate of home appliances and furniture drives demand explosion, and professional large parcel delivery capabilities are scarce
• Emerging Market Development
  : Growth rate 90%, profit margin 55%. Markets such as Southeast Asia (growth rate 91.55%), Latin America, and the Middle East are growing rapidly, but competition is not yet fierce

• Cross-Border E-Commerce Platform Cooperation
  : In-depth binding with mainstream platforms can obtain stable order flow, but bargaining power may be limited
• Last Mile
  : Large market size but low profit margin (58%), fierce competition

Sub-track leaders focusing on cross-border medium and large parcel logistics represented by Topwin International have the following investment values:

• Differentiated Competitive Advantage
  : Professional positioning avoids head-on competition with leading enterprises
• Technology-Driven Growth
  : AI application improves operational efficiency and builds technological barriers
• Platform Binding Capability
  : Cooperative relationships with mainstream e-commerce platforms ensure order sources

: Capital pressure brought by small scale, risk of squeeze from leading enterprises, risk of single market dependence (high proportion of US market).

Target	Ticker	Stock Price Performance	Valuation Level	Investment Rating
ZTO Express	ZTO	52-week high $22.42	P/E 15.01x	Buy 11 / Hold 3
SF Holding	SF	Increase +53.28%	Industry-leading	Buy 8 / Hold 5
JD	JD	Volatile	Low valuation	Buy 12 / Hold 6

From the secondary market performance:

• ZTO Express (ZTO)
  : Leading market share, reasonable valuation, most analysts give a “Buy” rating [7]
• SF Holding (SF)
  : Accelerated cross-border logistics layout, Ezhou hub put into operation brings incremental space, but valuation is on the high side
• JD (JD)
  : Valuation is at a historical low, the effect of Deppon integration is to be verified, and there is opportunity for valuation repair

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USPS plans to cancel the package size exemption in July 2026, requiring all commercial packages to provide accurate size data, which will increase the compliance costs of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises [5]. At the same time, the transportation cooperation between USPS and Amazon worth about 6 billion US dollars is facing re-tendering, which may lead to an increase in logistics costs [6].

The US has canceled the minimum threshold rule for duty-free and convenient customs clearance of low-value goods, and there is uncertainty about whether cross-border e-commerce can maintain the current growth rate in 2026 [3]. The EU is also cracking down on cheap e-commerce sales from China.

The “runaway” incident of Shenzhen Xing* Cross-Border Supply Chain Company sounds the alarm, the industry is accelerating reshuffle, and the process of good money driving out bad money will accelerate [5].

The industry’s CR8 has increased from 84.0% in 2023 to 87.0% in 2025, with market share continuing to concentrate on leading enterprises [1]. The formation of the three camps of SF-J&T Alliance, JD System, and Cainiao further squeezes the living space of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises.

The average single-ticket price of domestic express delivery has dropped to 7.49 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% in the first half of 2025, and the industry’s dilemma of “increasing revenue without increasing profits” has become more obvious [1]. The risk of the price war spreading to the cross-border logistics field deserves attention.

Cross-border logistics is a heavy asset industry, and a large amount of capital investment is required for overseas warehouse construction, trunk line capacity purchase, etc. Small and medium-sized logistics enterprises face financing pressure, and some enterprises “run away” due to capital chain rupture.

The inventory turnover pressure of cross-border e-commerce is transmitted to logistics service providers, which may lead to problems such as warehouse space occupation and extended payment collection cycles.

A robbery incident occurred in JD’s warehouse in Paris, France, with estimated losses of about 306 million yuan [5]. Security guarantee and localized operation of overseas warehouses are major challenges.

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Risk Preference	Recommended Targets	Allocation Suggestions
Conservative	ZTO Express (ZTO), JD (JD)	Focus on valuation repair, build positions in batches
Moderate	SF Holding, Beneficiary Stocks of Cainiao Ecosystem	Deploy cross-border logistics leaders
Aggressive	Primary market projects such as Topwin International	Focus on sub-track leaders, high risk and high return

: Pay attention to changes in trade policies after the new US government takes office, and valuation repair opportunities of cross-border logistics enterprises.

: Pay attention to the progress of overseas warehouse layout of leading enterprises, and the large-scale application of AI technology in the logistics field.

: The cross-border logistics industry will enter a new stage of “ecological confrontation + global competition + technology-driven”, and enterprises with technological advantages and global operation capabilities will stand out.

For primary market investment, it is recommended to focus on targets with the following characteristics:

1. Technology-Driven
   : Possess core technical capabilities such as AI and IoT, and can continuously improve operational efficiency
2. Professional Positioning
   : Focus on specific categories or regions to establish differentiated competitive advantages
3. Platform Binding Capability
   : Establish stable cooperative relationships with mainstream e-commerce platforms to ensure order sources
4. Localized Operation
   : Have local teams and operation networks in target markets, and can effectively respond to compliance and operational risks

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The cross-border medium and large parcel logistics industry is in a

, with a market size exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan and an annual growth rate of 15%, making it one of the most dynamic sub-tracks in the logistics industry. The market competition pattern shows the characteristics of “three camps + professional players”. Leading enterprises build moats through ecological integration, while professional sub-track leaders achieve differentiated competition through technology-driven growth.

From an investment perspective,

and are high-quality tracks with both high growth and high profits, while and are potential tracks with high growth and medium profits. Investors can allocate between valuation repair of leaders and sub-track leaders in the primary market according to their own risk preferences.

It should be noted that

(changes in USPS policies, tariff adjustments), (squeeze from leading enterprises, price war), and (capital chain, overseas security) are the main risk factors, and a prudent attitude should be maintained.

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[1] Deppon Follows JD, J&T Embraces SF - Caifuhao (https://caifuhao.eastmoney.com/news/20260116214425472288920)
[2] 4PL Logistics Market Size, Share, Trend Report - Global Growth Insights (https://www.globalgrowthinsights.com/zh/market-reports/4pl-logistics-market-122329)
[3] Temu Challenges Amazon’s Dominance in Cross-Border E-Commerce - Sina Finance (https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/roll/2026-01-16/doc-inhhnkez5629802.shtml)
[4] Li Haigang: 2025 Cross-Border E-Commerce Industry Development Trends and New Growth Decoding - Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (https://www.acem.sjtu.edu.cn/faculty/insight/92421.html)
[5] What Major Events Happened in the Cross-Border Logistics Industry in December? - Jiangxi Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (https://www.jiangxiwuliu.com.cn/nd.jsp?id=6597)
[6] Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Logistics Expert (https://www.kjwlbxs.com/hydt/hyzx.html)
[7] ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ADR vs. Its Peers: A Comparison - Newsheater (https://newsheater.com/2026/01/14/zto-express-cayman-inc-adr-zto-vs-its-peers-a-comparison/)
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