Comparative Analysis of Future Certainty: Cambricon (688256.SS) vs. Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS)

Now let me present the full comparative analysis report to you:

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Dimension	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai
Stock Code	688256.SS	600519.SS
Industry	Technology - Software Applications	Consumer Staples - Liquor Industry
Market Capitalization	$598.3 billion	$1,730.6 billion
Current Stock Price	RMB 1,424.05	RMB 1,382.00
Beta Coefficient	0.46	0.64

is a leading Chinese AI chip design company, focusing on the R&D and sales of artificial intelligence processor chips. The company’s products are mainly used in scenarios such as data centers, intelligent driving, and edge computing, and it is one of the core suppliers of domestic AI computing power.

is the absolute leader in China’s liquor industry, mainly engaged in the brewing and sales of high-end Maotai-flavor liquor. Moutai liquor has formed a strong moat with its unique brewing technology and brand premium capability.

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Valuation Indicator	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai	Multiple of Difference
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)	318.79x	19.23x	16.6x
Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)	52.90x	6.73x	7.9x
Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)	106.91x	9.90x	10.8x

• Cambricon’s valuation level is significantly higher than that of Moutai, reflecting the market’s premium for its high-growth expectations
• However, from a traditional valuation perspective, Cambricon’s P/E has reached 318x, implying extremely high growth assumptions
• Kweichow Moutai’s valuation is in a relatively reasonable historical range, reflecting its stable attributes [0]

Scenario	Cambricon Fair Value	vs. Current Price	Moutai Fair Value	vs. Current Price
Conservative Scenario	RMB -23.93	-101.7%	RMB 1,173.42	-15.1%
Base Scenario	RMB -36.94	-102.6%	RMB 1,734.04	+25.5%
Optimistic Scenario	RMB -94.59	-106.6%	RMB 2,928.03	+111.9%

• Cambricon’s DCF valuation is negative in all scenarios, indicating that the current stock price has significantly overextended future expectations [0]
• Moutai still has 25.5% upside potential under the base scenario, with relatively reasonable valuation [0]
• The valuation gap between the two companies reflects the drastically different certainty of their business models

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Indicator	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai	Evaluation
Return on Equity (ROE)	25.61%	36.48%	Moutai is better
Net Profit Margin	33.53%	51.51%	Moutai is better
Operating Profit Margin	32.54%	71.37%	Moutai is better
Gross Profit Margin	~60%+ (estimated)	~92%	Moutai is better

• Kweichow Moutai’s profitability is significantly better than that of Cambricon; its 51.51% net profit margin and 71.37% operating profit margin demonstrate extremely strong pricing power [0]
• Moutai’s ROE reaches 36.48%, which is at the top level in A-shares, with extremely strong shareholder return capability [0]
• Although Cambricon remains profitable, there is an order-of-magnitude gap in profitability compared to Moutai

Cash Flow Indicator	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai
Free Cash Flow	-$1.984 billion	+$87.785 billion
Operating Cash Flow	Negative	Strongly Positive
Cash Flow Certainty	Low	Extremely High

• Cambricon is still in the investment phase, with negative free cash flow, and needs continuous financing to support its development [0]
• Kweichow Moutai has extremely abundant cash flow, with free cash flow of nearly $87.8 billion, and excellent financial health [0]
• From the perspective of cash flow, Moutai’s certainty is far higher than that of Cambricon

Liquidity Indicator	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai	Industry Average
Current Ratio	12.48	6.62	~1.5-2.0
Quick Ratio	8.45	5.18	~1.0-1.5
Debt Risk	Low Risk	Low Risk	-

• Both companies have extremely abundant liquidity, far exceeding the industry average
• Cambricon’s current ratio reaches 12.48, reflecting a large reserve of cash-like assets [0]
• Kweichow Moutai’s current ratio of 6.62 is also excellent, with stable finances [0]
• Neither company has substantial debt risk

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Time Horizon	Cambricon Return	Moutai Return	Relative Return
1 Year	+140.55%	-5.00%	Cambricon leads
3 Years	+2,353.14%	-27.57%	Cambricon leads
5 Years	+819.39%	-33.01%	Cambricon leads

• Cambricon’s return has exceeded 23x in the past three years, mainly benefiting from the boom in the AI track [0]
• Moutai has performed weakly in the past three years, with a cumulative decline of about 28%, mainly affected by the consumption environment [0]
• From the perspective of historical returns, Cambricon shows strong growth stock characteristics

Dimension	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai
Revenue Growth	High-speed growth (~74%)	Medium-speed growth (~12%)
EPS Growth	Highly volatile	Relatively stable
Growth Certainty	Low	High
Growth Ceiling	High (large AI industry space)	Medium (limited liquor market scale)

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Risk Indicator	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai
Daily Volatility	4.82%	1.53%
Beta Coefficient	0.46	0.64
Price Fluctuation Range (60 days)	667.48%	38.62%

• Cambricon has extremely high volatility; its daily volatility of 4.82% is more than 3 times that of Moutai [0]
• Cambricon’s Beta is only 0.46, indicating low correlation with the broader market, making it a thematic investment target
• Moutai has extremely low volatility; its daily volatility of 1.53% reflects its “safe haven” attribute

1. Valuation Bubble Risk
   : The current 318x P/E implies extremely high growth expectations; if expectations are not met, the stock will face both valuation and earnings compression
2. Intensified Competition Risk
   : The AI chip track is highly competitive, requiring continuous investment to maintain technological leadership
3. Cash Flow Risk
   : Sustained losses rely on external financing; changes in the financing environment may affect operations
4. Technology Iteration Risk
   : Semiconductor technology iterates rapidly, requiring continuous follow-up of the latest processes

1. Consumption Environment Risk
   : High-end consumption is affected by economic cycles; demand comes under pressure during economic downturns
2. Policy Risk
   : The liquor industry is greatly affected by regulatory policies
3. Valuation Pullback Risk
   : If the market assigns a lower valuation to the consumer sector, the stock price may come under pressure
4. Growth Ceiling Risk
   : The liquor market scale is relatively fixed, with limited long-term growth space

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Assessment Dimension	Cambricon Score	Moutai Score	Explanation
Profit Certainty	3/10	9/10	Moutai’s profits are stable and predictable
Cash Flow Certainty	2/10	10/10	Moutai’s cash flow is extremely abundant
Valuation Certainty	1/10	8/10	Moutai’s valuation is relatively reasonable
Growth Certainty	5/10	6/10	Moutai’s growth is more stable
Risk Management Certainty	7/10	8/10	Moutai’s operations are more stable
Comprehensive Certainty	3.6/10	8.2/10	Moutai leads significantly

Dimension	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai	Conclusion
Business Model Certainty	Low	Extremely High	Moutai has a proven business model
Profit Stability	Low volatility	Extremely High Stability	Moutai’s quarterly profits are highly predictable
Cash Flow Predictability	Difficult to predict	Highly Predictable	Moutai’s advance payment model guarantees cash flow
Valuation Rationality	Severely Overvalued	Relatively Reasonable	DCF shows Moutai has upside potential
Risk Resistance Capability	Weak	Extremely Strong	Moutai has a deep brand moat
Long-term Survival Probability	Medium	Extremely High	Moutai’s industry position is solid

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1. High Profit Certainty
   : Moutai’s net profit margin is as high as 51.51%, and ROE reaches 36.48%, demonstrating extremely strong profitability and business moats [0]
2. Extremely High Cash Flow Certainty
   : Free cash flow reaches $87.8 billion, with abundant and predictable cash flow, and excellent financial health [0]
3. Relatively Reasonable Valuation
   : DCF valuation shows Moutai still has 25.5% upside potential under the base scenario, with a current P/E of only 19.23x [0]
4. Strong Risk Resistance Capability
   : Daily volatility is only 1.53%, Beta is 0.64, and it performs steadily amid market fluctuations [0]
5. Deep Brand Moat
   : The brand value and scarcity of Moutai liquor give it long-term pricing power

1. Severely Overextended Valuation
   : The 318x P/E and negative DCF valuation indicate that the current stock price has significantly overextended future expectations [0]
2. Still in the Loss Phase
   : Free cash flow is negative, and the business model has not been fully validated [0]
3. Fierce Industry Competition
   : The AI chip track has many competitors, with rapid technology iteration
4. High Volatility Risk
   : Daily volatility is 4.82%, and investment requires bearing large short-term fluctuations [0]

Dimension	Cambricon	Kweichow Moutai
Expected Return	High (if growth is realized)	Medium (stable growth)
Risk Level	Extremely High	Relatively Low
Certainty	Low	High
Suitable Investors	High-risk preference, short-term trading	Long-term value investment, stable allocation

• Moutai has a mature business model, abundant cash flow, reasonable valuation level, and strong brand moat, with extremely high future certainty
• Although Cambricon is in a high-growth track, its current valuation has severely overextended expectations, and its business model has not been fully validated, resulting in significantly higher uncertainty

• If pursuing
  certainty
  , prioritize Kweichow Moutai
• If pursuing
  high growth potential and can bear high risks
  , consider Cambricon as a satellite allocation

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Chart Explanation: The chart above comprehensively compares the overall performance of Cambricon and Kweichow Moutai from eight dimensions: market capitalization, valuation, profitability, risk indicators, price performance, liquidity, cash flow, and DCF valuation.

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[0] Jinling AI Financial Database - Company Profile, Financial Analysis, DCF Valuation, Technical Analysis (Data as of January 17, 2026)