How Domestic DRAM Enterprises Can Seize Opportunities from Micron's Exit from the Consumer Market

In December 2025, Micron Technology, the world’s third-largest DRAM supplier, announced its exit from its 29-year-old Crucial consumer storage brand business, and will no longer sell products under this brand to general consumers in the future [1][2]. The core reasons for this strategic adjustment are:

• AI-driven Focus on High-margin Businesses
  : Micron is fully shifting its DRAM and NAND flash memory businesses to high-margin, more concentrated enterprise markets, particularly in the data center and AI server segments [1]
• Capacity Shift to HBM
  : Demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) from AI servers has surged, and Micron is prioritizing advanced process capacity for HBM and server DRAM [2]
• Meager Profits in the Consumer Market
  : Compared to AI data center businesses, consumer memory products have lower gross margins, leading to trade-offs amid limited resources [1]

Following Micron, news emerged that SK Hynix is considering exiting the consumer DRAM and NAND business, but SK Hynix clarified on January 15, 2026, stating that it currently has no plans to exit the consumer product business, and related rumors are untrue [3]. However, SK Hynix clearly stated that it will continue to focus on high-value enterprise and AI server segments. While consumer products have not been completely abandoned, their capacity allocation has indeed been reduced [3].

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The global memory chip industry is currently in an unprecedented “super cycle”. According to data from TrendForce [4]:

Indicator	Q3 2025 Data	Quarter-over-Quarter Change
DRAM Industry Revenue	USD 41.4 Billion	+30.9%
NAND Vendor Revenue	USD 17.1 Billion	+16.5%
Enterprise SSD Revenue	USD 6.54 Billion	+28.0%

: Memory chips have evolved from a “cost component” in consumer electronics to a “strategic material” in AI infrastructure. An AI server requires approximately 8 times more DRAM and 3 times more NAND than a regular server [4].

In Q1 2026, DRAM manufacturers will massively shift advanced process capacity to server and HBM applications, leading to a severe shortage of general-purpose DRAM supply in consumer electronics, mobile devices, and other segments [5]. According to Counterpoint Research’s forecast [5]:

• Q4 2025
  : Memory prices are expected to surge by 40%-50%
• Q1 2026
  : Contract prices will increase by 55%-60% quarter-over-quarter
• Q2 2026
  : A further increase of approximately 20% is expected

From the perspective of supply-demand gap analysis, the consumer DRAM market has the most significant gap [5]:

Product Category	Demand Index	Supply Index	Gap
Server DRAM	100	72	28%
Consumer DRAM	100	58	42%
Mobile DRAM	100	85	15%
Enterprise SSD	100	68	32%
Consumer SSD	100	75	25%

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ChangXin Memory is in an accelerated phase of capacity ramp-up and high-end breakthrough [6][7]:

• Q1 2024
  : Monthly output was approximately 100,000 wafers (about 1/4 of SK Hynix’s output)
• Q1 2025
  : Monthly output doubled to 200,000 wafers
• Q4 2025
  : Expected to reach 300,000 wafers,
  nearly 50% year-over-year growth
• 2026 Target
  : Monthly capacity of 600,000 wafers

ChangXin Memory has completed dual iterations of capacity and technology from DDR4 to DDR5, and from LPDDR4X to LPDDR5X [4][8]:

Technology Node	Progress Status	Performance Indicators
DDR4	Mass-produced	Mainstream product
DDR5	Mass-produced	Maximum speed 8000Mbps, maximum die capacity 24Gb
LPDDR5X	Mass-produced	Maximum speed 10667Mbps
LPDDR5	In development	Target mass production in 2026

According to TechInsights’ assessment, although there is a 3-4 year generational gap between ChangXin Memory’s DDR5 technology and leading South Korean enterprises, there is no significant difference in product performance [6].

Based on DRAM sales in Q2 2025, ChangXin Memory Technologies’ global market share has increased to

[7]. TrendForce predicts that by the end of 2025, ChangXin Memory’s DRAM market share will reach [7]; it will further rise to in 2026 [6].

Year	Samsung	SK Hynix	Micron	ChangXin Memory	Others
2024	42.1%	29.3%	21.5%	3.1%	4.0%
2025	40.5%	28.2%	20.8%	6.5%	4.0%
2026 (Forecast)	38.2%	27.5%	19.2%	10.1%	5.0%

Yangtze Memory’s self-developed Xtacking architecture has achieved leapfrog development in 3D NAND technology [4]:

• Technological Progress
  : Completed the leap from 32 layers to 232 layers, and the yield rate of the current 294-layer 3D NAND product has exceeded 90%
• Performance Indicators
  : Sequential read/write speed exceeds 7000MB/s
• Localization Breakthrough
  : The first fully localized NAND production line began trial production in the second half of 2025, with equipment localization rate reaching 45%
• Capacity Expansion
  : The main body of the third-phase project was established in September 2025, with a registered capital of RMB 20.72 Billion

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From import and export data, China’s memory chips have long had a

[6]. Considering:

• Samsung’s Xi’an NAND production line accounts for approximately 40% of its global capacity
• SK Hynix’s Wuxi DRAM production line accounts for approximately 40% of its global capacity

The actual localization gap of China’s memory chips will be even larger, providing vast space for domestic substitution [6].

Since 2024, memory chip prices have continued to surge [8]:

Product	2024 Growth	2025 Growth	2026 Forecast
DDR4 16Gb	~1800%	450-580%	650-850%
DDR5 16Gb	150%	280-350%	450-580%

As overseas manufacturers shift capacity to high-end AI memory, supply of general-purpose DRAM is severely insufficient. Cost-effective products from domestic manufacturers such as ChangXin are expected to fill the market gap [4][8].

• Smartphones/PCs
  : 6GB/8GB memory and 256GB flash memory have become mainstream configurations for mid-range models
• AI PCs/AI Phones
  : Increased demand for edge-side DIMM memory modules and LPDDR embedded memory expansion
• Wearable Devices
  : Growing demand for highly integrated ePOP series products

• Annual memory procurement scale of domestic cloud computing vendors exceeds RMB 100 Billion
• To ensure supply chain security, Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, and others continue to increase the proportion of domestic memory chip procurement

• Level 3 and above autonomous driving requires 10 times more memory capacity than traditional models
• The memory capacity of a single smart cockpit system has exceeded 256GB
• The global automotive memory market is expected to reach
  USD 10.25 Billion
  in 2028 [4]

The specialized memory market is expected to expand at a

, reaching USD 20.8 Billion in 2029 [7]. Driving factors include:

• Growth in total data volume
• Edge-side AI demand
• Demand for low-power, high-reliability memory in automotive electronics

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ChangXin Memory Technologies Inc. (parent company of ChangXin Memory) updated its IPO review status to “Accepted” on December 30, 2025 [6][7]. The prospectus shows:

• Planned Fundraising
  : RMB 29.5 Billion
• Project Investment
  : RMB 34.5 Billion
  • RMB 7.5 Billion for the technological upgrade and transformation project of memory wafer manufacturing mass production lines
  • RMB 13 Billion for the DRAM memory technological upgrade project
  • RMB 9 Billion for the forward-looking technology research and development project of dynamic random-access memory

: Approximately RMB 20 Billion will be used for equipment procurement, which will directly drive demand for semiconductor equipment [6].

Data from January 2026 shows [9]:

• The domestic substitution rate of domestic semiconductor equipment increased from 25% in 2025 to
  35%
• The substitution rate of core equipment such as etchers and thin film deposition equipment has exceeded
  40%
• AMEC’s 5nm etcher has successfully entered TSMC’s advanced process production line for verification
• The proportion of NAURA’s oxidation furnaces and diffusion furnaces in SMIC’s 28nm production line exceeds
  60%

Equipment Type	Domestic Substitution Rate	Key Suppliers
Etcher	40%+	AMEC, NAURA
Thin Film Deposition Equipment	40%+	Topping Semiconductor, NAURA
CMP Equipment	30%+	Hitech Semiconductor
Metrology and Inspection	30%+	FlyTest Technologies, Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group

• GigaDevice
  : Early layout in niche DRAM products, with niche DRAM business revenue expected to grow by over 50% year-over-year in 2025 [7]
• Longsys
  : Self-developed controller products, with enterprise memory business growing by 138.66% year-over-year in H1 2025 [7]
• Biwin
  : Launched ePOP series products for wearable devices such as AI glasses [7]

• AMEC
  : Leader in etcher equipment, benefiting from memory capacity expansion and 3D technology iteration
• NAURA
  : Platform-based leader with a wide range of product lines
• Hitech Semiconductor
  : Localization breakthrough in CMP equipment
• FlyTest Technologies
  : Rapidly increasing localization rate in metrology and inspection segment

• The introduction of 3D DRAM technology has brought demand for advanced packaging
• ChangXin’s new logic wafers are matched with memory wafers at a 1:1 ratio, focusing on supporting logic foundry vendors

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The DRAM industry has significant cyclical characteristics [7]:

• Manufacturers adjust capacity based on downstream demand changes
• New production lines typically require multiple quarters to ramp up capacity
• Mismatches between supply and demand lead to significant price fluctuations

• Leading international DRAM enterprises have entered the bottleneck of process node miniaturization
• New product development faces huge cost increases and approaching physical limits
• Technological gaps still exist (3-4 year generational gap)

• International geopolitical conflicts may affect equipment procurement
• Capacity of foreign memory manufacturers in mainland China is controlled by overseas parent companies’ allocation strategies
• Supply chain security still requires continuous attention

• AI applications and cloud vendors’ capital expenditures fall short of expectations
• Weak demand for consumer electronics terminals
• Fluctuations in the prosperity of the memory cycle

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1. Strategic Opportunity Window
   : Micron’s exit from the consumer market has created a significant market gap for domestic DRAM enterprises, particularly in mid-to-low-end product segments such as DDR4
2. Prolonged Supply-Demand Imbalance
   : The “super cycle” of memory chips coupled with the explosion of AI demand is expected to keep the industry in short supply until 2027-2028
3. Accelerated Domestic Substitution
   : ChangXin Memory’s market share is expected to increase from 6.5% in 2025 to over 10% in 2026, with the technological gap continuously narrowing
4. Whole Industry Chain Benefits
   : From equipment and materials to packaging, testing, and modules, the entire domestic memory industry chain is facing development opportunities

Investment Direction	Recommended Targets	Key Logic
Memory Manufacturers	ChangXin Memory (Upcoming IPO)	Rapid capacity expansion, accelerated technological catch-up
Semiconductor Equipment	AMEC, NAURA	Increasing domestic substitution rate, order backlog extending to 2027
Memory Modules	Longsys, Biwin	Benefiting from price hikes, growing AI memory demand
Chip Design	GigaDevice, Dongxin Semiconductor	Increasing market share in niche DRAM
Packaging and Testing Enterprises	AccoTek, Huatian Technology	Demand for advanced packaging from 3D DRAM

• Q1 2026
  : Memory contract prices are expected to continue climbing by 30%-40%
• H1 2026
  : ChangXin’s LPDDR4 is expected to enter mass production
• Second half of 2026
  : Mass shipment of DDR5 products
• End of 2027
  : Most of ChangXin’s equipment will be installed

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[1] Micron Exits Consumer Market - Tencent News

[2] Micron Responds to Closing Crucial - cnBeta

[3] SK Hynix Clarifies Exit from Consumer Business - DRAM Chinese Website

[4] Domestic Memory Chips Seize Opportunities in the “Super Cycle” - China Electronics News

[5] Global Memory Chip Super Bull Market Erupts - NetEase Finance

[6] CITIC Securities: ChangXin Memory’s IPO Accepted - East Money

[7] ChangXin’s Multi-Billion Fundraising Catalyzes “Semiconductor Bull Market” - Sina Finance

[8] Global Memory Chip Price Hike Sweeps Across the World - Phoenix Net Finance

[9] Domestic Semiconductor Equipment Substitution Rate Rises to 35% - Sina Finance

[10] Capacity Expansion and Self-Controllability Resonate - Guojin Securities