White House Announces October Economic Data May Never Be Released Due to Government Shutdown

This analysis is based on CNBC’s reporting [2] and multiple news sources [1][3][4] covering the White House announcement on November 12, 2025, regarding the permanent loss of October economic data due to the government shutdown.

The record-breaking government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, has created an unprecedented disruption to the U.S. economic statistical system. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that October CPI and jobs reports will likely never be released because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was largely idle during the critical data collection period [1][2][4]. The shutdown lasted over 40 days, making it the longest in U.S. history and surpassing the previous 35-day record from 2018-2019 [3].

The timing was particularly damaging as it coincided with when BLS typically conducts price surveys and employment data collection. While some BLS staff were temporarily recalled to ensure September CPI release for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, the October data collection window was missed entirely [1]. Economic experts cited “recall bias” as a fundamental barrier to retroactive data collection, particularly for employment surveys requiring respondents to remember past work availability versus business payroll data involving hard numbers [1][2].

Despite the concerning data gap, financial markets showed remarkable resilience during the shutdown period. From October 2 through November 12, 2025, major indices posted gains: S&P 500 (+1.78%), NASDAQ Composite (+2.27%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+3.91%), and Russell 2000 (+0.07%) [0]. U.S. stocks rose on November 10, 2025, following news of progress on a compromise deal to end the shutdown [3].

The economic policy implications are significant. Federal Reserve leaders, scheduled to meet in December 2025, will face critical monetary policy decisions with incomplete economic information [1][2]. The White House suggested the shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter GDP by up to 2 percentage points, though Goldman Sachs actually raised its Q3 GDP outlook to 3.7% and full-year forecast to 1.3% [2].

The Senate passed a compromise bill on November 10, 2025, with a 60-40 vote to end the shutdown, extending funding through January 30, 2025, and preventing federal workforce layoffs until that date [3]. The shutdown began over disputes between Republican-controlled House and Senate Democrats regarding spending levels and health insurance subsidies [3]. A late October Reuters/Ipsos poll found Americans divided on blame assignment: 50% blamed Republicans, 43% blamed Democrats [3].

The permanent loss of October economic data represents more than a temporary gap—it creates a permanent hole in the U.S. economic record that will affect policymakers, investors, and researchers for years. Former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen noted that while canceling monthly reports would be less problematic if data were included in future releases, leaving them out entirely damages the credibility and continuity of the U.S. economic statistical system [1].

The absence of official government data will increase market reliance on private-sector alternatives like ADP’s weekly job estimates. However, experts emphasize these private-sector data are not proper substitutes for comprehensive government data collection [1]. This shift could lead to increased market volatility as investors grapple with incomplete information and potentially conflicting data sources.

The disruption raises questions about U.S. economic data reliability compared to other countries. While the reports lack detailed international comparisons, the permanent data gap could affect international economic comparisons and long-term research accuracy, potentially undermining the U.S. position as a global economic data leader.

• Policy Decision Blind Spots
  : Federal Reserve policymakers face December 2025 meetings without crucial inflation and employment data, potentially leading to suboptimal monetary policy decisions [1][2]
• Market Volatility Risk
  : Increased reliance on incomplete or conflicting private-sector data could lead to heightened market volatility and mispricing [1]
• Long-term Research Gaps
  : The permanent data loss creates discontinuities in economic time series, affecting future research and historical analysis [1]
• Credibility Damage
  : The U.S. economic statistical system’s reputation may suffer, affecting international confidence in U.S. economic data [1]

• Private Data Enhancement
  : The gap may accelerate development and adoption of alternative private-sector economic data collection methods
• Statistical System Reform
  : The crisis could prompt improvements in government data collection resilience and backup protocols
• Market Adaptation
  : Financial markets may develop more sophisticated methods for operating with incomplete official data

• October 1, 2025: Government shutdown begins at 12:00 a.m. EDT [3]
• October 2025: BLS unable to collect economic data during shutdown [1]
• November 10, 2025: Senate passes compromise bill (60-40 vote) to end shutdown [3]
• November 12, 2025: White House announces October data may never be released [1][2][4]

• September CPI: Released (staff temporarily recalled) [1]
• September jobs report: Expected release within days of reopening [1]
• October CPI and jobs data: Likely never to be released [1][2][4]
• Other impacted data: Retail sales, import/export data, consumer spending and income [2]

• S&P 500: +1.78% [0]
• NASDAQ Composite: +2.27% [0]
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3.91% [0]
• Russell 2000: +0.07% [0]

• Longest government shutdown in U.S. history (40+ days) [3]
• Shutdown disputes centered on spending levels and health insurance subsidies [3]
• Goldman Sachs raised Q3 GDP outlook to 3.7% despite shutdown concerns [2]
• Federal Reserve faces December policy meetings without complete data [1][2]